Remy Blaire engages in a timely discussion with Bernt Nelson, Economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, about the rising prices of turkey as Thanksgiving approaches. With the holiday just around the corner, the conversation centers on how an outbreak affecting America’s turkeys is contributing to increased costs for consumers.

Remy opens the segment by highlighting the significant rise in retail turkey prices, which are currently averaging around $1.31 per pound—an increase of approximately 40% compared to the previous year. Bernt explains that this surge is primarily due to disease pressures, particularly avian influenza, which has created volatility in the turkey market. He provides historical context, noting that U.S. turkey production has declined over the past 30 years, while demand has remained relatively stable, resulting in tighter supplies and higher prices.

“This disease pressure has caused an upswing and a downswing and an ebb and flow of the supply of turkey.” – 01:19

The discussion shifts to the challenges faced by poultry farmers, who have seen a drastic reduction in turkey production from a peak of 303 million birds in 1996 to around 195 million today. Bernt elaborates on the impact of avian influenza, which has affected millions of poultry, and discusses the limited indemnity payments available to farmers, which do not fully compensate for the financial losses incurred during outbreaks.

As the conversation progresses, Remy inquires about the potential for price increases to extend beyond turkey to other Thanksgiving staples. Bernt informs listeners that the American Farm Bureau Federation conducts an annual survey to assess the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for ten, which will be released in November. This survey will provide insights into the prices of traditional favorites such as pumpkin pie and mashed potatoes, helping consumers prepare for their holiday shopping.

Throughout the episode, Bernt emphasizes the importance of staying informed about food prices, especially in a time when many families are concerned about their budgets. He reassures listeners that while turkey prices are expected to be higher, most of the turkeys for Thanksgiving are already in the pipeline, suggesting that the immediate impact on prices may be limited.

“We’re actually, I think, in a little bit of a stickier situation the longer this shutdown goes in terms of figuring out what is the trajectory for inflation here.” – 01:50

Remy Blaire welcomes Brian Jacobsen, the Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, to discuss the current state of the U.S. economy and financial markets. The episode opens with a positive note as Wall Street is reported to be opening higher, with major stock averages up by at least half a percentage point. Remy highlights the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which has risen less than forecasted, and mentions that the U.S. government is now in its 24th day of shutdown. She notes the Senate’s failure to advance a GOP-backed measure aimed at paying federal employees, military members, and contractors who have continued to work without pay.

Brian shares his insights on the inflation report, indicating that core inflation has increased less than anticipated, which reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points in their upcoming meeting on October 28th to 29th. However, he raises concerns about the implications of the ongoing government shutdown on future inflation data, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is unable to collect data for October.

The conversation shifts to corporate America, where Remy points out that recent earnings reports have provided a mixed picture of industry performance. Brian discusses the reassuring loan quality reported by major banks, despite some isolated concerns regarding specific cases. He contrasts the performance of companies like Tesla and General Motors, noting that while Tesla has seen an increase in sales, its costs have risen significantly, particularly following the elimination of electric vehicle credits. In contrast, Procter & Gamble’s earnings report reveals that the company has successfully pushed prices higher, which may lead to additional pressure on consumers as the holiday season approaches.

Remy then brings up the upcoming meeting between President Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping, which Brian describes as critical for U.S.-China trade relations. He expresses cautious optimism about the potential outcomes, suggesting that the tariffs scheduled to increase on November 1st may not reach the worst-case scenario and could instead be set at a more manageable level.

As the segment progresses, Brian emphasizes the importance of monitoring equities, yields, and precious metals as the end of October approaches. He expresses concerns about potential froth in certain market areas and advises investors to focus on growth at a reasonable price rather than growth at any price. Brian predicts some volatility in the markets, suggesting that the S&P 500 may end the year close to its current levels, with a potential entry point around 6,500 in 2026.

“At the end of the day, yesterday, the rally was based on the fact that we have a meeting with China.” – 01:32

Remy Blaire engages in a dynamic discussion with Peter Tuchman, Senior Floor Trader at TradeMas, about the current state of the U.S. stock market. The episode opens with a breakdown of the latest inflation data and its impact on market performance, particularly highlighting the S&P 500’s recent rise, which is largely driven by strong earnings reports from tech stocks.

Remy and Peter reflect on the market’s recovery from a slight dip earlier in the week, which was influenced by concerns over export restrictions. They emphasize the importance of monitoring trade developments, especially in light of ongoing negotiations with China. Peter notes that the market remains sensitive to political narratives, particularly those coming from President Trump, which can lead to significant fluctuations.

As they delve deeper into the economic landscape, Peter discusses the paradox of “bad news being good news,” explaining how weaker economic indicators, such as rising unemployment and high inflation, may actually lead to increased optimism among investors. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Looking ahead to the final week of October, Remy and Peter discuss the upcoming Fed rate decision and the APEC meeting, as well as the anticipated earnings reports from major tech companies. Peter expresses confidence in the resilience of tech stocks, particularly in the quantitative computing sector, despite recent volatility. He highlights the significant interest in semiconductor companies like NVIDIA, which are seen as crucial players in the ongoing AI revolution.

Throughout the conversation, Peter underscores the vast potential within the tech market, pointing out the various levels of demand for GPUs and the monopolization of the supply chain by major players. He concludes by expressing optimism that the upcoming earnings reports from tech companies will meet or exceed expectations, given the strong fundamentals and ongoing demand in the sector.