Remy Blaire engages in a comprehensive discussion with Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist and Portfolio Manager at AlphaSimplex. The segment opens with an overview of the current state of the U.S. stock market, where major stock averages are striving to maintain gains despite recent fluctuations. Remy highlights the midweek slide in stocks, which is attributed to new developments in U.S.-China trade relations, particularly following Treasury Secretary Besson’s confirmation of potential export restrictions on U.S. software to China. This uncertainty is compounded by President Trump’s comments regarding possible restrictions taking effect by November 1st.

As the third quarter earnings season unfolds, Remy notes that 86% of companies have exceeded Wall Street estimates, leading analysts to revise their expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth to over 9% compared to the previous year. Katy joins the conversation to provide her insights on the significance of macroeconomic risks in the current market environment. She emphasizes that these risks are crucial, especially as the market is focused on potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is identified as a key indicator that could influence policy decisions, with Katy expressing concern that the ongoing government shutdown and lack of data could trigger a short-term sell-off if the anticipated rate cuts do not materialize.

The discussion then shifts to the currency markets, where Remy points out that the U.S. dollar index is hovering just above the 99 level. Katy explains that the recent strengthening of the dollar may be a temporary reaction to rate policy uncertainty, but it could also indicate a potential shift in the longer-term trend. She notes that strong U.S. growth numbers are supportive of the dollar, while policy uncertainty could further bolster its value.

Next, the conversation turns to precious metals, particularly gold, which has seen a significant increase of about 50% year-to-date. Remy highlights gold’s recent rise of approximately 2.5% and its role as a safe haven amid geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar. Katy discusses the implications of the recent reversal in gold prices, suggesting that while gold remains a popular hedge against uncertainty, there may be limits to future demand, particularly in light of rate uncertainty.

“Even though the revenue was strong compared to the last few quarters, then unfortunately that stock is not doing well today because it’s all about expectations.” – 03:31

Remy Blaire engages in a compelling discussion with Gabriela Berrospi, the CEO and Founder of Latino Wall Street. The segment opens with a recap of the recent volatility in the equity markets, following new records for the Dow. Remy notes that the major averages—the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500—are attempting to hold onto session gains amidst the ongoing third quarter earnings season.

Gabriela provides her insights into the current market dynamics, attributing much of the volatility to uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade relations with China. She explains the back-and-forth nature of government negotiations, which has created a climate of unpredictability. Gabriela highlights the recent government shutdown, acknowledging that while it has had some temporary positive effects on the markets, the lack of clarity regarding its duration raises concerns.

The conversation shifts to the earnings reports from major companies, including Coca-Cola, 3M, and Tesla. Gabriela emphasizes that despite Tesla’s impressive 12% revenue growth, the stock has not performed well due to unmet analyst expectations. She elaborates on the importance of these expectations, noting that the market’s reaction often hinges on whether companies meet or exceed projections.

As the episode progresses, Remy and Gabriela discuss the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the anticipated 25-point rate cut. Gabriela stresses the need for controlling inflation and the market’s keen interest in economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures set to be released soon. She warns that while rate cuts may be welcomed by investors and consumers alike, they can lead to inflationary consequences, as evidenced by the recent rally in gold prices.