Remy Blaire engages in a timely discussion with Bernt Nelson, Economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, about the rising prices of turkey as Thanksgiving approaches. With the holiday just around the corner, the conversation centers on how an outbreak affecting America’s turkeys is contributing to increased costs for consumers.
Remy opens the segment by highlighting the significant rise in retail turkey prices, which are currently averaging around $1.31 per pound—an increase of approximately 40% compared to the previous year. Bernt explains that this surge is primarily due to disease pressures, particularly avian influenza, which has created volatility in the turkey market. He provides historical context, noting that U.S. turkey production has declined over the past 30 years, while demand has remained relatively stable, resulting in tighter supplies and higher prices.
“This disease pressure has caused an upswing and a downswing and an ebb and flow of the supply of turkey.” – 01:19
The discussion shifts to the challenges faced by poultry farmers, who have seen a drastic reduction in turkey production from a peak of 303 million birds in 1996 to around 195 million today. Bernt elaborates on the impact of avian influenza, which has affected millions of poultry, and discusses the limited indemnity payments available to farmers, which do not fully compensate for the financial losses incurred during outbreaks.
As the conversation progresses, Remy inquires about the potential for price increases to extend beyond turkey to other Thanksgiving staples. Bernt informs listeners that the American Farm Bureau Federation conducts an annual survey to assess the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for ten, which will be released in November. This survey will provide insights into the prices of traditional favorites such as pumpkin pie and mashed potatoes, helping consumers prepare for their holiday shopping.
Throughout the episode, Bernt emphasizes the importance of staying informed about food prices, especially in a time when many families are concerned about their budgets. He reassures listeners that while turkey prices are expected to be higher, most of the turkeys for Thanksgiving are already in the pipeline, suggesting that the immediate impact on prices may be limited.