Great.
Phil Rosen, good friend of ours here on the show, joins us now.
He is, of course, the chief market strategist at Pro Cap Financial.
My man, it's nice to see you here as always.
Thank you for having me, JD.
We got to talk earnings season because a lot of these companies were saying in the last block talking about AMD and some others, they are crushing the cover off the ball right now.
I wonder, do you think, is that the only thing that is driving the market to another round of all-time highs?
I mean, it's a huge catalyst right now.
We have not seen. revisions like this for the second quarter in five years.
We just saw analysts raise their expectations for Q2 by 2.1%.
So typically that doesn't sound like that much, but usually at this point in the year, they're lowering it by about 1%.
So we haven't seen this since the end of the pandemic, and this is a very big catalyst, especially in light of the very, uh, dicey geopolitical backdrop right now that hasn't really come out as a bearish.
Headwind yet because of the strength of earnings, is it too bullish too fast?
What are they basing that optimism on right now?
Because, hey, we still hear from the president who says, I'm not taking the possibility of military strikes against Iran off the table.
That's the type of thing that got investors pretty skittish back in the month of March.
And now it just kind of rolls right off the bat in another round of highs.
Look, any time that you have everyone on the right side of the trade being either too optimistic or too pessim.
Mistake you probably wanna, uh, pause a little bit, but right now these companies are getting so profitable, especially with the AI trade semiconductors going absolutely nuts.
I think these, uh, the semiconductor ETF SOXX I think is about 40% in the last month, which is just an absurd run.
And by any other year you would look at that and say, OK, we should probably expect a pullback, but in this case.
I actually don't know if that's the right call because of the strength of the AI trade right now.
Yes, JC Perez likes to say by the time it's consensus, it's probably too late, at least in terms of some of those analysts notes.
What could derail the momentum right now?
I mean, it's another, you know, Tuchman and I were talking at the top of the show, the small caps, the NASDAQ, the S&P, we're now doing this almost like a daily thing for all-time highs.
What are some of the Voices of concern that you're hearing, you know, I look at this bull market.
It is so resilient, so robust, and if the Iran conflict could derail the bull market, then what could possibly be a bigger black swan event than that?
I really don't know if we start to see this AI spend not materialize or if some hyper scalers start to come out and have comments that they're pulling back spending, we're not seeing the ROI.
Why that investors want to see it, sure, that's a headwind, but we've been dealing with that potential bearish factor for 1 year already, maybe 2 years, and the Iran conflict, that is the biggest thing, and yet it did nothing pretty much to the momentum in the stock market.
The great Phil Rosen.
The only bad part about this interview is that I have to wrap it because we have a very tight show today, but please come back anytime.
Phil Rosen of Pro Crap, my man, thanks for being here.
