Ryan King joins me now, senior market strategist at the NYIC.
I love the little fractional gains on the day.
It's not distinct.
It's not big and bold.
It's like just up a little bit, a little bit of a tick, but you know, coming into this today's session, if you think of April, people might have said that the markets were going to the moon, right?
We've been up, about 10% for the month of April in the S&P 500, the best monthly return since kind of 2020.
An Artemis pun going to the moon, a Spa day pun down here.
There you go.
How are you thinking about the massive tranches of tech earnings?
Obviously we still got a few weeks to go for Nvidia, but the rest of the bunch, these are 5 of the biggest 7 names on planet Earth, and here we go.
Yes, absolutely.
So look, if you take a step back and look at earnings season, you know, kind of thus far, it's been very, very solid, right?
We're looking at over 80% of companies bidding on both the top and the bottom line, right, earning.
Are beating by over 10% on average on the revenue side they're beating by over 2% right now there's been this kind of bifurcation within the market right where you've seen a lot of the more cyclical companies kind of beating estimates for the quarter but not necessarily raising guidance right as we've, uh, you know, as they're showing some conservatism we're calling that the guidance gap, right, but that one area where we're not seeing any conservatism whatsoever is within.
Semiconductors within technology, anything that's related to data centers and kind of the Capex, you know, kind of boom that we're seeing kind of across the country, you know, later this week we get the mega cap tech stocks, the hyperscas, all reporting on Wednesday after the Fed meeting, right, and they're going to give us an update in terms of kind of that Capex guidance, and I, you know, the street is widely expecting that to kind of continue to move higher.
We've seen the.
Trade do very well.
Discretionary do very well, but software still kind of stuck in a little bit.
You and I are taking a look year to day performance here.
Salesforce down 31%.
IBM down 23%.
Snowflake 34%.
Is that the one part of the trade that's still lagging because we're kind of right back there to the so-called Sapocalypse narrative.
Yes, we have like the AI disruption has really been, you know, kind of one of the key themes, and that's kind of bled itself into.
Kind of financials, private credit, you know, kind of throughout, you know, kind of the beginning of this year, but I think, you know, really like the, the real notable thing is, is what's happening in semiconductors, right?
You had coming into today's session you had the, uh, the ICE semiconductor index is up 18 consecutive sessions, uh, 10 over 10% last week, near over 50% year to date, right?
And we've seen within that sector, right, we've seen the broadening, right, so it's not just the high performance.
Silicon names like Nvidia, which did hit a new all-time high today, but we saw we've seen this really kind of broadening out to your analog names, right, semiconductor names that have been that are more exposed to kind of the industrial side of things, right, and we're seeing kind of a real turn in earnings on that front, and that's suggesting that we're seeing kind of a turn in kind of just economic activity more broadly.
Could it possibly be this Wednesday, the final FOMC meeting?
The Honorable Jerome Powell, I thought this man would always be Fed Chairman.
He's been doing it for so long.
I expect him to wear a purple tie.
I expect him to come out and say good afternoon.
Beyond that, maybe we know what happens with rates, but what are you looking for for Wednesday?
Yes, look, I mean, I think, you know, markets widely expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged.
I don't really think there's anything controversial coming from that perspective, right?
It's just really a question as to Whether or not he kind of officially announces that he's going to either step off or kind of stay on in a governor's role, you know, kind of with the idea that the DOJ investigation is now kind of been put on hold, right, so that's the big question for the day at this point, you know, markets are kind of very much focused on earnings.
We're focused on the geopolitical side of things.
Kind of tend to be, you know, seem to be at a stand standstill.
The Federal Reserve is kind of a secondary story at this point.
That's right.
We've got the FOMC decision 2 o'clock.
Powell's presumably final press conference at 2:30.
Sometimes the first price action is the wrong price action, so watch the tape very closely for Wednesday in particular.
The great Michael Ryan King, senior market strategist here at the Big Board, thanks for being here, man.
Nice to see you.
Thanks for having me.
