“I think it would take a really, really strong number to dislodge markets from this belief that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in a couple of weeks.” – 04:03

Michael Reinking, Senior Market Strategist at the NYSE, joins Remy Blaire to discuss the significant economic indicators that are influencing the Federal Reserve’s near-term outlook, particularly focusing on the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for August. As September begins, a month historically known for negative returns in equity markets, Remy discusses the current market sentiment, which is reflected in the declines across futures for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.

Together, they explore the factors contributing to the current market downturn, including recent weaknesses in the AI sector following announcements from Alibaba and the notable rise in long-term yields globally. With the 30-year yield testing the 5% level and 10-year yields around 4.3%, they analyze how these shifts are impacting investor sentiment.

Remy and Michael highlight the importance of the labor market data set to be released, including ADP, JOLTS, and the highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report. Michael emphasizes that Friday’s jobs report is crucial, with the market expecting around 75,000 jobs to be added. They discuss the implications of recent negative revisions to previous data and how these figures could affect the Fed’s narrative regarding potential rate cuts.

The conversation also touches on the upcoming annual revisions to payroll figures, with estimates suggesting substantial negative revisions that could further indicate a weakening labor market. Michael shares his insights on how this data might influence market expectations for the Fed’s actions in September.

“The fact that we can get through all of that and navigate it, and still… hit a record high on the same day of the NASDAQ, the S&P, and the Dow, all hit record highs on the same day.” – 01:50

Peter Tuchman, Senior Floor Trader at TradeMas, joins Remy Blaire at the New York Stock Exchange to share his insights on the market’s resilience amid various economic pressures, including inflation, tariffs, and interest rates. They reflect on the tumultuous summer months and the significant milestones achieved in the stock market, particularly the S&P 500 surpassing the 6,500 mark for the first time in history. Peter emphasizes the importance of understanding the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street, noting that while the stock market may be thriving, many Americans are still facing rising costs and economic uncertainty.

As they look ahead, Remy and Peter discuss the upcoming jobs report and its potential implications for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. With the Fed’s next meeting scheduled for September 17th, they explore the likelihood of interest rate cuts and how forthcoming economic data will play a crucial role in shaping future monetary policy.

“I think we’re really riding the bullish earnings momentum.” – 01:09

Remy welcomes Larry Tentarelli, the Chief Technical Strategist and Founder of the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. As they approach the holiday weekend, they discuss the recent performance of the stock market, particularly the S&P 500, which has not only reached a record high but has also surpassed the 6500 level. Larry notes that this impressive climb took just 196 trading days to gain 500 points, especially significant given that the S&P 500 had dipped below 5000 earlier in the year.

Larry attributes much of the bullish momentum to strong earnings reports, particularly from companies in the AI sector, such as Snowflake. He explains that the anticipated negative impacts of tariff inflation on the market have not materialized as expected, leading to a rally fueled by better-than-expected news.

The conversation shifts to the implications of Fed Chair Jay Powell’s recent dovish statements from the Jackson Hole meeting, which have raised expectations for a potential rate cut in September. Larry expresses optimism about the sustainability of the current market rotation into sectors that typically benefit from lower interest rates, such as home builders, regional banks, and small-cap stocks.