Markets Near Highs as Oil Shock Fades, AI Boom Moves from Private to Public

Let's bring in Juan Moreno, managing partner at Nassau Street Partners.

It's great to see you here.

Thanks for kicking off the show with us.

Good to be here.

So markets, I mean, obviously we're having this conversation on a day of a little bit of a pullback, but for the most part, markets at all-time high.

They're taking the oil conflict in stride.

What do you see when you look up at the markets?

Look, I think with the oil situation, you know, at the beginning of the conflict there was a lot of panic.

I think the market is really starting to price in now the fact that there is extra supply coming in from Venezuela.

There is extra supply from the US that's stepping in.

There's countries like Saudi Arabia that are moving oil through pipelines inland, so there's a lot of extra supply that I think a lot of analysts weren't counting on, and we're not seeing some of those doomsday scenarios that maybe we were seeing at the beginning of the conflict, even as it does.

Drag on.

Talk to me about what's on your radar and maybe your scorecard ultimately for earnings this week.

We got through a lot of the big tech names last week, maybe better than feared.

CapE spending very strong, hyper scaler spending a big storyline.

How about for some of these, especially the semi's names we're going to hear from in the next few days?

We did.

I think they're going to continue to dictate the pace at which the market is moving.

We're keeping our eye on that.

We're keeping our eye also on.

The private markets where we sit, anthropic open AI raising record round sizes, and I think that's going to continue to really set the pace for the public, semiconductor, and AI companies.

Talk to me about a few more of those private names we all see the headlines.

Help the average would-be investor at home separate signal from noise for the SpaceX's, the Anthropics, the open AIs.

I mean these numbers that are getting thrown around.

They're.

Historically large.

Well, look, that's where all the action is right now.

I, I, I think that's not, you know, it's indisputable.

A lot of the action is happening in the private markets and a lot of retail investors are sitting on the sidelines and waiting for them to hit the public markets.

I would say, you know, there's a lot of numbers being thrown out.

There's no set numbers.

There's talks of valuations in the trillions.

You know what I would say is I, I, I remain.

You know, cautious about valuations, you know, at such high levels when they hit the public markets.

I would want to see maybe some of these companies develop a little bit more in the public, in the private side rather develop more of that revenue and really have a good solid case if they want to try and command $1 trillion.02 $3 trillion valuations in the public markets.

Yeah, we don't exactly know what the path forward looks like with regards to easing of interest rates, how restrict.

Or otherwise Kevin Warsh may be, but what's on your radar?

What do you pay attention to for merger and acquisition activity?

I know they all want to see interest rates come down.

That is no certain thing.

But what do you follow for M&A activity for the year?

They do.

I think Kevin Warsh was a good pick.

I think he's he's not as dovish as maybe people thought he would be.

I, you know, we did think that there were going to be more cuts coming.

I think with the oil situation, it's maybe not so much.

On the cards anymore.

I think overall the next 1224 months we are going to see rates come down and we are going to see more deal making overall.

I think the business climate right now, a lot of the actions that the Trump administration's taking have been extremely positive for business climate, and I think it's going to translate into more M&A and more deal making.

We have a lot of earnings.

We have a lot of Fed speakers who are going to be making public comments over the next few days.

We also got the April jobs report.

This Friday morning, what are you paying attention to to give us some sense on the health of the underlying labor market?

I think we're paying attention to a lot of the disruption that's going on with AI.

It seems like every week there's news that there's another layoff.

There's another tech company that's laying off a big chunk of staff due to, you know, AI efficiencies, and I think we're going to keep our eye on that.

We, we want to avoid, I think, and most analysts want to avoid a situation where there's higher.

Unemployment, it's increasing and then the oil crisis and inflation is leading to a situation where the Fed's stuck and the economy doesn't really know where to turn.

I don't think we're there yet, but I think it's something to look at and we'll be looking at those numbers carefully.

All right, Juan Moreno, before I let you go, any other big catalysts on your radar you're paying attention to, you think we all would benefit from also paying a bit more attention to in the days and weeks ahead?

We're looking at.

Secondary and tertiary industries that are being disrupted by AI, legacy industries, financial services, health care, legal insurance, we're looking at a lot of those.

We're looking at the savings, the transformation that AI is taking into those industries, both in the private and the public side, and we see a lot of transformation going on there.

Juan Moreno, managing partner at Nassau Street Partners, an 11th hour film, and my man, you crushed it.

Please come back anytime.

I will anytime.