Let's bring in our good pal Eric Criscuolo.
He is a market strategist right here at the New York Stock Exchange.
So Eric, we were just talking about with Peter Tuchman the fact that we're finishing right at session lows.
We know sometimes, not always, that can portend a gap down into tomorrow morning's open, but of course we've got a PCE print that we'll have to digest before we get the opening bell tomorrow.
What do you make of today's price action, Eric?
It's kind of ugly, to put it nicely, I guess.
Listen, we've been Accustomed to buying the dip for a while now, right?
Every time the S&P 500 tags the 100 day moving average going back over a year, every time that dip has been bought, we rally higher.
On Friday, we closed below the 100 day moving average, and now the question is, are buyers going to come in to buy those dips?
It's not like we're, you know, way off.
The S&P is down a little over 1% today.
You know, on the week it's down a little bit, so it's not like we're in the territory we were in with the tariffs in April.
Last April, but kind of like markets kind of feeling a little uneasy right now, you know, and oil prices constantly are going higher.
That is really, really weighing on the markets right now, and I think just the fact that this Iran situation is prolonging or extending beyond what anyone initially thought, that's that's really weighing on the market right now.
I mean right now we've got West Texas is priced at 9651.
Brent, that's the global benchmark.
North of 100 and had been the tale of the tape for yesterday which saw oil, kind of crude oil prices go up and stocks come down.
It seems as if that's been the continuing story for today.
Is that kind of your expectation for at least the foreseeable future?
We know the White House is putting a timeline, they say 4 to 5 weeks on this thing.
Investors may not be quite so confident with that timeline.
Well, yes, I mean the last time when we bombed Iran last year, you know, that was in and out.
It was a day, a couple of days, it was over, and that's not.
The other thing too is the Strait of Hormuz is closed basically and now it's OK for the US a little bit because we are energy independent, you know, we produce our own oil, natural gas, Europe, Japan, the Asian countries, they're going to get hit really hard and you're seeing that in the dollar, why the dollar is reacting so strongly right now that those countries, the yen, the Swiss franc, those haven currencies, usually we get bid in these volatile times.
But the energy price inflation that they are potentially going to see those currencies, that's kind of weighing everything down versus the dollar.
So the dollar is moving higher, which is making it even harder for these countries now to go against a stronger dollar.
So it's just a lot of macroeconomic macrocurrents kind of converging right now and it's really, it's really being seen across asset classes.
I mean, it's been a while since we've looked up and seen the Dixie trading with a 99 handle.
I mean we're kind of in the long term.
We are accustomed to seeing it north of 100%.
But the big storyline for the first year of the Trump administration has been the dollar falling 5%, 7%, down to 10% and more.
Now to have it at 99 74% speaks to maybe a bit of that adjusted concern.
Speaking of concerns, CME Group FedWatch tool, I couldn't believe it.
I was shocked an hour ago to see the expectation now for no interest rate cuts on the table.
Obviously that moves a lot.
It could be zero, it could be 1, it could be 2, but for right now, market participants are saying, hey, we're standing pat the rest of 2026.
Yes, I mean that's oil right there going over 10.
We had about 2 rate cuts priced in, you know, last month, uh, even going into the early part of this month, that has been taken out just like you said, we're we're less than 1 rate cut now priced into the market.
So, you know, we saw that the 2 year yield today jumped over 10 basis points, at least before I before I came down here, it was up over 10 basis points.
So the front end of the curve is just ripping higher.
The entire curve is shifting up, but the front end is really coming up.
That's kind of flattening the curve overall.
So.
It's everything is kind of moving quickly right now across assets.
Yes, of course.
Before I let you go, any expectation for what we may see out of the PCE inflation print tomorrow?
Look, we got CPI, we get PPI.
This is the big one.
We always say this is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, in particular core PCE tomorrow morning, Erin.
Yes, so CPI was pretty tame.
It was kind of on the screws as far as consensus goes.
Looking into the details, it looks like some of the stuff that goes into the PCE versus the CPI was maybe a little hotter.
So the PCE could come in a little hotter than the CPI, you know, and that's going to, you know, probably be a talking point for the Fed when they meet next week in their big rate decision, which's got a lot bigger now over the past couple of days.
But you know, the fact is, the question is what do they look at versus, you know, historical, what just happened versus what is happening now and what's happening in the future as far as where oil is going to take us.
That's the, that's really the key question.
Eric Criscolo, market strategist right here at the New York Stock Exchange, my man, thanks for being here as always.
It's good to have you a pleasure.
