Bitcoin has pulled back to retest key support levels, hovering around $67,000, but according to Swan Bitcoin Managing Director John Haar, the long-term Bitcoin story remains intact. Speaking with J.D. Durkin, Haar explained that Bitcoin is currently taking a backseat as investors chase the explosive gains being seen across AI-related stocks, semiconductors, software companies, and data center plays. While institutional adoption continues to grow through major players like Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, and Strategy, investor attention has shifted toward sectors delivering faster short-term returns. Haar believes Bitcoin’s next major catalyst could come from either a cooling of AI market enthusiasm or a future wave of monetary stimulus that refocuses investors on Bitcoin’s role as a store of value. He also addressed headlines surrounding Strategy’s recent Bitcoin sale, describing it as a minor transaction designed to satisfy credit rating agencies rather than signal a change in the company’s long-term Bitcoin strategy. As Wall Street institutions continue building exposure to digital assets, Haar argues that Bitcoin’s long-term investment thesis remains stronger than ever despite recent price weakness.
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friend of mine and longtime friend of the show joins us now. John Haar, Managing Director at Swan Bitcoin. My man, it's nice to see you here as always. So let me get your take here on what's going on with Bitcoin. Retesting its March support level, currently hovering right around $67,000 or so. John, what do you think has been pushing down Bitcoin in the last few weeks?
Yeah, good to see you, JD. I would say the real thing right now is that Bitcoin is in the backseat, and maybe that's even an understatement. The spotlight is on the AI-related stocks that have gone up 100%, 200%, 300% in the past weeks and months. So investor attention, investor flows are just focused elsewhere right now. I don't think the Bitcoin thesis has changed at all long term, but in the short term, it's just not the darling. It's not in the spotlight right now. I think we've seen some large investors in Bitcoin exit, and I think we're seeing smaller people rotate into the hyped up sectors right now, which is really anything AI related.
Yeah, memory stock, semiconductor, software certainly has its days in the sun. No shortage of shiny things. John, what needs to happen for Bitcoin to once again become that so-called shiny thing for investors to focus on at least a little bit more?
Yeah, I think it's one of two things. I think the AI hype has to die down to some extent, and that could happen in a multitude of ways. The valuations could keep getting stretched, and then there's some sort of reversal. The earnings could not live up to the hype. That could cause a reversal. Number two would be some sort of big print, in my opinion. That is really when Bitcoin shines. Think like the COVID stimulus. That was like the biggest advertisement for Bitcoin you could imagine. And big prints don't always have to look and feel exactly like that COVID era. But I think it's a pretty good bet that there will be another big print from a combination of the Fed and the Treasury at some point in the future. That is when the focus really dials in on Bitcoin.
Yeah, John, you and I have talked a lot about institutional adoption, the way that Bitcoin has kind of continued to trend lower despite that smart money adoption here on Wall Street. Is that kind of dichotomy still happening, that kind of divergence between those two realities?
Yeah, I think institutional adoption is still happening. MicroStrategy is still buying. There's some headlines with them this week, but institutional buying directly from MicroStrategy is happening. Institutional broader adoption is still happening, whether it's the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF or Charles Schwab announcing support for Bitcoin. They're thinking years and years down the road. So I think that, you know, underscores the idea that the Bitcoin thesis over the long term has not changed, but on a shorter term time horizon measured in a few months, it's harder to be positive about Bitcoin here. But again, just to underscore the point, Morgan Stanley, Schwab, MicroStrategy, they're thinking years and years down the road, they're not turning away from Bitcoin.
OK, so when he talks strategy, I'm glad he brought that up because it did make a lot of headlines. And you know, the way that people react to these headlines, John Saylor strategy just sold its first Bitcoin since 2022, two and a half million dollars, maybe a bit of a small amount. All things considered, what do you think? What goes through your mind when you see those headlines?
I think he did this just to show the market that the company could and would sell Bitcoin to the market, to prove it to the market, but also to prove it to rating agencies. I believe it was S&P, one of the big rating agencies, who specifically said that MicroStrategy, the company, would have to demonstrate an ability to sell Bitcoin, an ability and a willingness to sell Bitcoin, because up until this moment, everything you've heard from the company and its biggest voice, Michael Saylor, has been about, you never sell, you never sell, you never sell. And if the main thing that balance sheet consists of is an asset you're never, ever going to sell, the rating agency looked at that and said, we don't really like that approach. So I think they just sold a tiny bit. It's really a rounding error compared to the holdings they have, just to prove and check that box for the rating agency. So I wouldn't read into it too much. I think that's what's going on with strategy this week.