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Virtu Warns Traders Face ‘Dartboard’ Markets Despite Earnings Growth

Market Movers: The Opening Bell

January 15, 2026

Video Transcript

Earnings season is kicking off and the results are rolling in.

Analysts expect total earnings from S&P 500 companies to rise about 13% in 2025 and see growth of more than 15% in 2026 and earnings across the financial sector are expected to have risen around 7% in Q4 from a year earlier.

Joining me as we kick off today's trading session is matchlock equity trader at Virtue Financial.

Good morning.

Thank you so much for joining me.

Good morning, Rey.

How are you?

Doing well, thank you.

Well, in today's session we are looking at green for the major US stock averages, and that is quite a difference from yesterday.

But we do have to keep in mind that we are only in the 2nd full trading week of 2026.

So what do you make of the action we've seen so far?

Wow, it's like throwing darts at a dartboard to see what sector is going to move, you know.

Yesterday we saw the last couple of days.

We saw oil rise today we're seeing it sell off today we're seeing some of the banks after some earnings from some of the majors rise after selling off this morning.

So you've really got to get your whips all helmet on, you know, at this point things are moving very fast.

People's decisions are being made very, very quickly now too.

It's the beginning of the year.

You don't want to fall too far behind missing certain moves, so people are definitely being.

Fickle here as far as their investment and their investment strategy.

It's not long term, it's short term, you know, and we noticed that the banks, you know, started the week obviously a little slow with the credit card, you know, news, so that's kind of died down because there's so much else going on that we're able to focus on.

So maybe these earnings will finally drive the market in one particular way because people will focus on.

Actual news and not just rumor and indeed there have been so many headlines whether we're talking about geopolitics or politics that have been coming out but you mentioned the big bank earnings and we've been listening to those earnings calls very closely to hear what the executives have to say not just about their organizations but also the economy, the outlook heading into 2026 and you've been on the trading floor for many years so you understand.

And how results affect stock price.

So give us an idea of why we've been seeing the type of reaction when it comes to the big banks.

Well, you know, the big banks are always underpromising and overdelivering.

They've done it for forever and you know it's worked, right?

So but again, you know, when you see an earnings report that came out from, you know, someone like Goldman this morning it was trading down big pre-market and then in rallies big.

You know people just don't know what to make of it.

They have to have their handheld, and that's, you know, unfortunately with these big banks have to do right now, especially in this time.

Look, the economy seems to be doing well.

People are forecasting good things for the economy in 2026.

The S&P is approaching 7000.

The Dow. approaching 50, so these are historic numbers.

These are monumental numbers and the market likes to trend to that, and I think that's kind of what we're seeing to start January, the first couple of weeks we've seen some momentum to the upside, even though we've had some terrible news geopolitically as far as what's going on maybe in Iran, maybe in Venezuela, you know, certainly the market has shrugged it off and still is trending higher.

And you mentioned that 7000 target for the S&P 500.

I'm sure if you and I were sitting here at the beginning of 2025, we would have been considering that as a lofty level, but we did see double digit percentage gains for the major stock averages for the third year in a row at the end of 2025.

So as we move forward, there's a concern about rotation and how it's going to impact the markets.

So what are you actually seeing right now?

Well, let me throw a dart at the dartboard.

I mean that's kind of what it is now.

Chips are in favor today after being down for the last couple of days.

So it's that rotational move that takes place.

So when you see oil up 3% the other day, now down 3%, given it all back, where's that money going?

It's not just going to cash, it's going to an investment.

What was down over the last couple of days? chips, so it's going back in the chips.

Maybe it's going into the banks.

Banks saw some selloff obviously with that news that we saw earlier in the week.

So that's what you've got to keep your head on a swivel about.

You've really got to know.

Where that money flow happens and how quickly it is happening.

This is something that, you know, 32 years ago when I started down here, we didn't have that, right?

It was a very slow process.

It took a lot to get through the system.

Now it happens instantaneously.

So for viewers out there who are watching, they're monitoring what's happening in terms of economic data and what it means for their wallets and the economy.

What would you tell them, especially given what we're seeing here on Wall Street.

Well, you know, I think Wall Street is completely different from Main Street.

You know, I mean you've got to always look out for your own pocketbook, you know.

So if you're an investor in this market, you know, you're not as quick as the smartest trader, and you can never be.

So don't trade the trends.

You have to find something that you like and you've got to stay in it, you know it's for a long haul.

You know I've got a 25 year old daughter that I'm trying to teach that to, you know, it's it's not about.

It's about, you know, 4 years down the road, 40 years down the road, and that's how the average investor needs to think because this market just shows that you can't keep up and I'm glad you bring that point up because given the elevated levels and what we're actually seeing out there in terms of costs rising, we're seeing this discrepancy and you mentioned that credit card cap that was.

The spotlight earlier this week that 10% potential credit card cap, but also there are other headlines out there regarding mortgages and Americans out there.

They're keeping a close eye on what's happening across all markets whether we're talking about housing, consumer lending, or borrowing.

So how do you think all of this will actually shake out and how are you separating All the noise and finding that signal.

Wow, you know, when you, when you think about the credit card cap, the actual number, it's fantastic, right, for the average borrower, right?

You know I can only be charged 10% on what I'm, but maybe you shouldn't be spending that much, right?

So you know banks have financial models that go out years, you know, so moving it to 10% can't happen overnight.

It just can't, right?

So.

You know that is a work in progress and that's a great step forward.

It's a great idea, carrying mortgages over from house to house, wonderful idea for the people that have 4%, 3% mortgages when you're not paying 7%, but it can happen in actuality you know banks have a lot of, as I mentioned, financial modeling that takes place, so a lot of their earnings reports and their modeling suggests that can't happen overnight so.

Interesting philosophy, interesting theoretical discussion, but practicality, you know, I'd like to see it happen overnight.

I just don't, I just don't feel it again and that finally before I let you go, the Federal Reserve when it comes to monetary policy, that is something that all of us keep our eyes on and as an equity trader I'm sure you're paying attention to expectations for the. when it comes to rates and it does affect Americans whether we're talking about lending or even mortgages.

So what are your expectations for the rest of 2026?

Wow, I mean if we have a new Fed chairman, what happens, right?

So I don't think you can look too far down the road, you know, I would expect maybe another rate cut.

But other than that, you know, it depends on who gets in, how does, how does the new management look?

How does the new vice chairman, chairman look, what governors are staying, what are leaving, so I think if you're going to look that far in advance, you may miss the boat.

So you've got to stay nimble and I keep mentioning it.

That's what this market is telling you, but as an average investor, invest for the long term, right?

Don't trade on these whims.

That's the only way that you're going to make money in the long term.

Well, Matt, always great talking to you.

Thank you so much for joining me and thank you so much for sharing all of your insights.

Sure, Remy, have a great Thursday.

Thank you.

Earnings season is officially underway, and early results point to a notable acceleration in corporate profits across the S&P 500, with earnings growth projected at roughly 13% in 2025 and more than 15% in 2026. In a recent discussion with Matt Cheslock, an equity trader at Virtu Financial, attention turned to what these earnings signals mean for market direction and investor positioning. As major U.S. stock averages continue to trend higher, understanding sector dynamics has become increasingly important in navigating today’s fast-moving environment.

As markets move through the second full trading week of 2026, volatility remains a defining feature. Analysts are watching sharp swings in sectors such as energy and banking, where momentum has shifted quickly in recent sessions. Just days prior to the conversation, oil prices surged before reversing sharply, underscoring the rapid changes traders face. Cheslock compared the current setup to “throwing darts at a dartboard,” a reflection of how unpredictable short-term trading conditions have become.

Bank earnings have been a central focus, with investor attention firmly on large financial institutions. Cheslock noted that firms like Goldman Sachs often follow a pattern of underpromising and overdelivering. While initial market reactions to some earnings releases were negative, sentiment shifted quickly as confidence returned. These swift reversals highlight the importance of weighing technical signals alongside broader economic indicators when assessing market moves.

Looking ahead, the broader economic outlook for 2026 remains constructive, with key milestones such as the S&P 500 nearing the 7000 level drawing increased attention. At the same time, markets continue to respond to external pressures, including geopolitical developments, prompting investors to monitor growth trends and potential sector rotations. Cheslock stressed the importance of staying nimble and maintaining awareness of where capital is being deployed as conditions evolve.

Cheslock also emphasized the need to distinguish between Wall Street dynamics and the realities facing Main Street. For everyday investors, he suggested maintaining a long-term perspective rather than reacting to short-term market noise. With inflation and higher living costs continuing to strain household budgets, disciplined decision-making has become increasingly important. As he put it, “find something that you like and you’ve got to stay in it,” reinforcing the value of patience and conviction in investing.

The conversation extended to policy-related topics, including proposed caps on credit card interest rates and trends in the mortgage market. While a cap on credit card rates could offer relief to consumers, Cheslock noted that implementing such changes takes time. Banks rely on extensive financial modeling, making it difficult for sweeping policy shifts to materialize quickly. He cautioned investors to focus on practical outcomes rather than speculative policy discussions.

Attention also remains on the Federal Reserve, whose monetary policy decisions continue to influence markets and household finances alike. With expectations for potential rate cuts in play, Cheslock pointed out that uncertainty remains elevated. Shifts in leadership or policy direction at the Fed could have meaningful implications for borrowing costs, affecting everything from mortgages to consumer lending. Staying informed on these developments, he noted, is critical for sound investment decision-making.

As earnings season unfolds, insights from Matt Cheslock of Virtu Financial highlight the importance of adaptability and strategy in today’s market. Persistent volatility calls for a thoughtful approach grounded in research and long-term planning. As Cheslock concluded, successful investing is not about reacting to every market move, but about committing to well-considered positions that can deliver results over time.

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