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Turkey Trouble: Understanding the Rising Prices Ahead of Thanksgiving

Market Movers: The Opening Bell

October 24, 2025

Video Transcript

Thanksgiving is right around the corner, and this year's Thanksgiving meal could be costlier due to an outbreak targeting America's turkeys.

Now I sat down with Barrett Nelson, economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, to discuss how rising turkey prices could impact Thanksgiving dinner this year.

Take a look.

So the countdown to Thanksgiving is on.

So how much higher will retail turkey prices be at the grocery stores?

You know, it is that time of year as we start getting into fall and Thanksgiving right around the corner.

That means the top of mind thoughts are switching to food for the holidays, and Turkey is really top of that list.

We've had a lot of disease pressure this year.

Prices at the retail level are up around 40% compared to what they were last year.

They're sitting.

Around $1.03 1.5 a pound on average.

Now this is up like we like you said, about 40% from last year, 32% from just a few years ago, and I think that shows just how volatile a lot of this market has been for our farmers and our producers that grow our nation's food.

This disease pressure has caused an upswing and a downswing and an ebb and flow of the supply of turkey, and that's what's behind a lot of these changes in price for our shoppers.

If we compare this price to last year, we look and we can see that we're at $1.31 you know, 40 up 40% from our 93 cents a pound last year.

Well, over the past 30 years, the US turkey production has declined while demand has only slipped slightly, making supplies tighter and driving up farm level prices.

So how are the poultry farmers handling this?

You know, it's really been a tough road for our turkey farmers.

If we look back to where we peaked in turkey production, we're looking at around 303 million back in 1996.

Today we're sitting at turkey's raised at around 195 million birds this year.

So down just a little bit from last year, but if we look at these long term trends, we can see that consolidation in the industry.

You know, we think about the impacts of avian influenza.

We've had about 175 million total poultry animals affected by this virus.

About 19 million of those have been turkeys.

In the last month, we've seen over 600,000 turkeys in.

Impacted by this virus.

And so when we think about that and how that affects our farmer a supply, when this happens, it's devastating on the farm level.

And there's some indemnity payments and things like that to keep them afloat, but it doesn't make up for the cost of not being able to make money during that downtime and cleanup.

Yeah, and Baron, that is an area we'll continue to keep a close eye on.

But as you mentioned, the countdown is on to Thanksgiving.

We have a little over a month to go until that important day.

But of course, key question here could the price increases extend beyond just Turkey to other Thanksgiving favorites this year?

You know, American Farm Bureau Federation is a long standing tradition.

What we do is we conduct a survey for the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10, and you can keep an eye out for this as it'll be coming right around the corner in November for the release.

In this we'll have your favorite items like pumpkin pie, um.

Mashed potatoes, all the fixings that come with that lovely centerpiece that we all like so much.

So keep an eye out for this, you can get a snapshot on what that might look like as you head to the grocery store.

Yeah, and speaking of which, last year we spoke to you about this survey.

So what will the Farm Bureau's upcoming November 19th survey reveal about the total cost of a holiday meal?

And I'm asking this, especially as Americans are concerned about rising prices at grocery stores.

You know, it's one of those times where every penny matters.

There's a lot of concern about the overall economy out there.

Food prices are changing constantly, and you'll just have to keep your eye out.

We don't even know what that survey data is quite going to look like as it comes in.

We expect that that centerpiece and one of the most costly pieces of a Thanksgiving dinner, the turkey, will definitely be up in price.

We're seeing some avian influenza, you know, it's starting to hit the flyways, the migratory pathways where a lot of our turkeys are raised.

But that shouldn't have an impact on our prices as we head towards Thanksgiving, cause most of those turkeys are already in the pipeline getting ready for the grocery stores and our shoppers to get ready for Thanksgiving Day.

Well, Barrett, once that survey comes out, hopefully we can speak to you again.

Thank you so much for joining us today and thank you so much for sharing all of your insights and perspective.

Thank you.

Remy Blaire engages in a timely discussion with Bernt Nelson, Economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, about the rising prices of turkey as Thanksgiving approaches. With the holiday just around the corner, the conversation centers on how an outbreak affecting America’s turkeys is contributing to increased costs for consumers.

Remy opens the segment by highlighting the significant rise in retail turkey prices, which are currently averaging around $1.31 per pound—an increase of approximately 40% compared to the previous year. Bernt explains that this surge is primarily due to disease pressures, particularly avian influenza, which has created volatility in the turkey market. He provides historical context, noting that U.S. turkey production has declined over the past 30 years, while demand has remained relatively stable, resulting in tighter supplies and higher prices.

“This disease pressure has caused an upswing and a downswing and an ebb and flow of the supply of turkey.” – 01:19

The discussion shifts to the challenges faced by poultry farmers, who have seen a drastic reduction in turkey production from a peak of 303 million birds in 1996 to around 195 million today. Bernt elaborates on the impact of avian influenza, which has affected millions of poultry, and discusses the limited indemnity payments available to farmers, which do not fully compensate for the financial losses incurred during outbreaks.

As the conversation progresses, Remy inquires about the potential for price increases to extend beyond turkey to other Thanksgiving staples. Bernt informs listeners that the American Farm Bureau Federation conducts an annual survey to assess the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for ten, which will be released in November. This survey will provide insights into the prices of traditional favorites such as pumpkin pie and mashed potatoes, helping consumers prepare for their holiday shopping.

Throughout the episode, Bernt emphasizes the importance of staying informed about food prices, especially in a time when many families are concerned about their budgets. He reassures listeners that while turkey prices are expected to be higher, most of the turkeys for Thanksgiving are already in the pipeline, suggesting that the immediate impact on prices may be limited.

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