Welcome to FinTech TV.
I'm Rebbie Blair.
Joining me as the major US stock averages hit new record highs is Steve Elaine Lauren, who is CIO at Balfour Capital.
Well, great to have you here today.
Thank you so much for joining me.
Great being here like always, and thank you.
Well, here we are approaching the end of summer.
Nearly, but we are looking at the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 hitting new record highs, and this does come on the heels of the latest inflation figures.
So what does all of this mean?
And with anticipation of Fed rate cuts, what can we expect in terms of market action?
Well, let me say this to you.
Obviously on a day like today, everybody's on Their chair waiting for Trump and Putin to meet in Alaska.
So I think that's going to be a very big focal point on not only inflation but Where the where the country is going to be deploying their assets on both parts, so I anticipate a tremendous amount of volatility going into September, October, and November.
Yeah, and what you just mentioned there, that summit between Trump and Putin, that is historical, and it also speaks to the fact that What we're seeing in the market, what we're seeing in the nation's capital, there's so many moving parts here.
And even when you separate what's happening across asset classes, we're seeing a lot of volatility.
So what does all of this mean as we head into the second half?
I'll tell you what it means.
When you see the United States potentially making an investment in Intel, all right, it's telling you how interconnected the world really is, especially with all the blockchain.
All right, and we're seeing that there's so many alternative assets and investment strategies that the public is starting to really get involved with, especially now a 401k, all right, can buy these alternative investments, so you're going to see a lot of influx in all kinds of different products, even the the NFT market, it's gonna be a big market, uh, especially on in the high art world.
Yeah, and you just brought up an important point there because earlier this week we saw Bitcoin hit new record highs above 124,000, and we were also looking at the other crypto major E approaching those record highs as well.
But when we think about institutional demand as well as a pro-crypto regulatory environment here in the US, what does that mean for investors who are still waiting on the sidelines?
I think the key is when you deploy and get in you're gonna have to understand that you're in it for the long term.
You're not going to be able to trade it, buy it at one and sell it at so, all right, and going back to diversification, for example, we're doing an NFT right now with a company called Sabatier out of Germany.
They're a world renowned art dealer and what you have is the new guard working with the old guard, the father, son, and the whole family selling very. very expensive pieces of art to the ultra high net worth community, so you're seeing how technology is affecting all global aspects, especially with blockchain and authentication.
That's what we're saying Yeah, and Steve, two things that you just mentioned there, so demographics as well as generational wealth and access to investment.
So when we're taking a step back, you also mentioned Germany, and when we look at the US versus, say, the rest of the world, Europe in particular, Germany, growth versus value, what are we seeing in terms of geographic as well as those factors?
The market's going to come off, OK, just because it's gone up so fast and so quickly.
I anticipate the market coming off around 2 to 4%, but it's a buy.
But you have to be very, very strategic when you buy.
For example, Buffett today bought a boatload of UnitedHealthcare, but so did David Teppert.
OK, so you've got really institutional money.
You know, stepping in and you're seeing it in all sectors.
All right, so people are waiting for some sort of retracement cause they don't want to miss the move, so the moral to the story is.
Be diversified.
You can't just have one asset.
You have to have multiple assets in a portfolio.
And have a long term view.
So we've covered equities.
We've touched on commodities.
I do want to ask you about bonds because that is something that we paid attention to the end of 2024 when the Fed began cutting rates in 2024, and there's this term that gets thrown around, bond vigilantes.
What can we expect as we head into the rest of 2025?
Right now there's inflation still, yeah, but now that The Fed chairman, his term is up.
Everybody's putting their hat in to see who's going to be the next Fed chairman, so it is.
You've got two ends of the street.
People who think rates are gonna should remain should go lower or be priced at where they are.
So what I'm seeing.
As an investor and who runs a hedge fund and have clients all over the world, I will tell you this when there's inflation, it doesn't go down in a day or a quarter, OK?
It takes time, and I believe that they will eventually cut interest rates, but it's already priced in.
That's the hardest part about the market.
It's anticipating and forecasting what something will do in the future.
Yeah, and finally, before I let you go, when it comes to US economic data, so you were talking about the names that are being thrown into the circle when it comes to the Fed chair, and there's also a focus on economic data and leadership at institutions that produce data for the US.
So in terms of accuracy of US economic data, do you think there will be more reliance on, say, private sector data moving forward?
Well, You know, that's a hard first of all, that's a tough question.
OK, uh, and my thought process is as follows.
Economic numbers that come out.
Already happened in the past and they could always be readjusted.
OK, so there's so many factors in the mathematics of that, right?
It's all about the sentiment and what the public believes, you know, where Main Street meets Ulster and the little guy, all right, doesn't get pushed out and what you're seeing is the little guy wants in.
Yeah, so in a nutshell, when you're separating all the noise from signal, what does that look like?
You know, it looks exactly like this.
Markets will come off.
OK, there could be a nice little retracement, and you should invest wisely by buying high quality assets.
There's a reason why Buffett bought United Alfair.
He waited in Tepper.
It's all about the buy of of when you get in.
Well, we know that timing is key, but the longer time horizon you have, the better it is.
So Steve, appreciate your time.
Thank you so much for joining us, Ray.
Thank you so much for having me.
My pleasure.
Take care.
