“If you’re a brand that is trying to reach more typically liberal leaning constituencies… you have to pay attention to the fact that your consumers are going to be getting $10 billion worth of political spending directed at them.” – 02:48
Tyler Goldberg, the Director of Political Strategy at Assembly, joins Remy Blaire to discuss the unprecedented financial landscape of this election season, projected to exceed $10 billion in spending across various races, including Senate, Governor, House, and state legislator contests.
Tyler explains that unlike presidential election years, where spending patterns are more predictable, midterm elections present a multifaceted challenge. With 33 Senate races, 36 Governor races, and 435 House races, forecasting political spending becomes intricate. He highlights that the first major primary will take place in Texas in March, indicating that the 2026 election cycle is already underway.
The conversation shifts to the cultural impact of political advertising, with Tyler noting that previous trends showed Republican consumers were more likely to reduce discretionary spending due to economic concerns. However, he anticipates a reversal in 2026, suggesting that liberal-leaning constituencies may be more influenced by political messaging about the economy.
Remy and Tyler also discuss the regional intensity of political spending, revealing that the $10 billion will not be evenly distributed across media markets. Tyler introduces the Assembly Market Intensity Index, a tool designed to help brands prepare for the peaks of political spending in various regions, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning.
As they delve into advertising channels, Tyler shares that approximately 55% to 60% of spending is expected to go toward linear television, while 20-25% will be allocated to digital and streaming platforms. He stresses the necessity for brands to understand their exposure to the political cycle and to collaborate with partners who are knowledgeable about the political landscape.