Let's get to the big story.
Breakdown.
Bitcoin is nearly flat in New York morning trade, currently holding right above 72,340, and that is after recovering 73,500 in the previous session.
The rally did spread to the other crypto major as well.
Now crypto markets remain stuck in a protracted lull, but the underlying data showing that trading volumes have evaporated while volatility has severely compressed, and it is a stark departure from the speculative. past cycles while Wall Street firms are advancing tokenization and also deepening institutional adoption where is the smart money actually going while joining me live here at the New York Stock Exchange is Alex Leishman who is founder CEO and CTO at River.
Alex great to have you here.
Thank you so much for joining me.
Thanks for having me on. we have seen plenty of volatility across all asset classes, including crypto in 2026.
So where do we stand right now when it comes to Bitcoin both with institutional as well as retail adoption.
Yeah, great question.
So what we saw last year was institutions were massive net buyers of Bitcoin.
We've been in about a year-long bear market at this point, and the Bitcoin has shifted hands through this bear market from early individual holders to institutions that include things like Bitcoin treasury companies like the micro strategy of the world, and also operating companies.
Anyone from restaurants to big food services companies to hot dog stands are buying Bitcoin.
And I think it's important to look at the data because there's a lot of fear right now in the market when it comes to crypto, especially following the drawdown we saw earlier in February.
So where do you think we are right now given all this volatility and given your knowledge of market cycles?
Yeah, so I think we're sort of in the dead center of this current market cycle.
We, I think, are probably through the worst of it if I had to guess.
Of course Bitcoin always does things you don't expect, and I anticipate that over the coming year we'll start to see a turnaround in the price as as the sell pressure from a lot of the early whales that we're selling over the last year starts to ease up.
And another area that we're paying attention to obviously is US banks building products around crypto, and we continue to hear about innovations as well as trends when it comes to this institutional adoption tokenization, as well as the role of stablecoins.
So what is the data actually telling you?
So the data is showing us that the vast majority of the largest banks in the country are actively working on Bitcoin projects.
Citi, for example, is working on Bitcoin custody.
As are a number of other large banks, and I think what's going to be very interesting is to see how this impacts the existing players in the market, the coinbass, the krakens, the very large exchanges of the world as these banks start to enter the market with their big balance sheets, their ability to offer credit to their traders.
It'll be really interesting to see if you know they start to take market share from some of these early more Silicon Valley incumbents and you and I are here at the New York Stock Exchange and we continue to hear about partnerships between exchanges and these companies.
So what do you think this means and what role does regulation play?
I think regulation and clarity around the rules is what unlocks the ability for the banks to finally enter and make that risk reward trade-off of is this worth the risk that our regulators might come down on us adversarially.
And so I think finally they're going, I think it's OK.
I think it's OK to enter this market and it's safe, and I think what we'll see is the early phases of this.
They are partnering with the incumbent crypto players and over time I think we'll start to potentially see some vertical integration and see some of these banks take this stuff in-house once they realize the market is.
And when we're talking about the Bitcoin community, obviously we all pay attention to what's happening in social media and it does appear as though there's a lot of back and forth between the crypto companies and the current Trump administration.
So how do you think all of this is actually going to unfold and what does it mean for the legislation timeline?
So there's definitely a lot of backroom conversations happening right now about the Clarity Act, you know, it's, it's kind of the Coinbase versus JPMorgan battle waging in DC.
I think what we'll see is probably Silicon Valley winning here.
They've been very supportive of this administration.
They've been very supportive of the party in power in DC, so I have a feeling that they come out ahead.
But you never know.
The bank lobby is very powerful, and if they if they want to die on this hill of if stablecoins can pay out interest or not.
They might have what it takes to kill this thing, so we'll see.
And I do want to ask you about the annual report from Rivers.
So given everything that's happening in the geopolitical front in 2026, we have been reminded about the role of digital assets around the globe.
So what have you been seeing when it comes to Bitcoin adoption across the globe, and how does national security actually play into this?
Yes, so we've seen a drastic increase in Bitcoin adoption across global institutions.
More and more governments are accumulating Bitcoin, sometimes not even buying it.
They're they're seizing it for various crimes, but instead of just dumping it, they're just holding on to it.
We're also seeing global financial institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin.
If we extrapolate the trend of ownership that we saw happen in 2025 of Bitcoin moving hands from individuals to institutions, the majority of Bitcoin will be owned by institutions in 22035.
I think that's a very interesting trend, and we are also seeing Bitcoin play a role on the weekends when these crazy geopolitical events are happening.
It typically tends to happen on a Friday night or a Saturday, and Bitcoin is one of the only liquid things that can settle in trade 24/7, and I think it plays its role as this global instant liquidity.
And it's broadly held across the entire world, so I think we'll see Bitcoin continue to play more and more of a market role sort of gauging the market impacts of geopolitical events over the weekends.
And finally, before I let you go, you mentioned that role.
Of 24/7 trading and Bitcoin and how it plays a part in this.
So given where Bitcoin is today and what has been moving prices, what do you think the role of the crypto major is and what has actually been moving price actions?
Well, I think that its role is instantly transferable 24/7.
Hard asset which is extremely useful when there are wars happening and what we're seeing is when something happens we're seeing an immediate sort of sell off because some parties are looking for instant liquidity during this event for some reason or another.
But then once there's certainty we're seeing the demand pick back up because people want this thing because it's the only thing that they can use when the markets are closed and so.
I think that we're going to continue to see Bitcoin grow in its world as this global settlement.
Network, this global settlement tool that governments and other actors that are involved in these conflicts increasingly rely on to transfer value.
Well, we will have to leave it there for today, Alex, but thank you so much for joining me here today and thank you so much for sharing all of your insights.
Thanks for having me on.
Thank you.
