And Welcome back to Market movers the opening bell live from the New York Stock Exchange.
Well, in New York Morning trade, we are looking at Bitcoin trading right below the $91,000 level, while the crypto major is down about 30% since hitting a record high above $126,000 in October.
Both regulated institutions, as well as fast money, are now pushing conflict strategies, and in past years, US investors did not have access to many of these high risk strategies.
Joining me on this Thursday morning following the September non-farm payrolls report and Nvidia earnings is Andy Beer, head of product and research of Coin desk indices.
Andy, good morning.
What a morning we're seeing a rally on Wall Street, and we were looking at Bitcoin holding 91,000, but what do you make of what's happened so far?
Again, we've been using the snooze button.
I think crypto is hitting the snooze button yet again.
The equity market rally is powerful and it's choosing to.
Interpret these September jobs numbers in the most optimistic way possible following the Nvidia numbers.
That's fantastic, especially before what will be a slow week next week to just have the market sentiment be returning on the crypto side, leverage hasn't quite come back into the system yet, and sentiment remains a little bit cautious and markets remain tender.
So we'll have to give this a few days to see if it activates and gets us back into rally mode.
Yeah, and speaking of which, next week is Thanksgiving here in the US, so it won't be a holiday shortened week, but that also means that December is right around the corner and we are, believe it or not, heading into a new year shortly.
So how do you think 2025 should and will be remembered?
It's always easier to look in the rearview mirror, but it sure is, and people love to look at annual performance.
They're one of the biggest.
I guess tools for crypto evangelists is having these charts of which asset class did best in each calendar year and right now it looks like crypto is going to fail to deliver on its 2025 promise now that it's permissioned and regulated and supported at least partially to become this asset class that will outperform everything else.
So it will be an interesting challenge.
We'll see what December delivers.
Remember, you know, we're at the tail end of November here and it was 1 calendar month or 6 weeks earlier that Bitcoin hit its all-time high.
So don't count out a late year rally, but right now it looks like, you know, that performance is going to be muted, more muted than expected.
And Andy, finally, in terms of data, what does that tell you?
So one of the things that we've noticed, and I think one of the positive signals in this year's market has been a move towards higher quality names and right now that means important names, names that get in the news more names that are involved in more integrations.
One of the things we did to look at that was measure the performance of our mid-cap and small cap index, the coin desk 80 versus the 20.
Uh, consistently during the year, if we look at Coin desk 80 performance, those smaller names as a ratio to Coin desk 20, they've sunk during the year, right, which means that distracting names, smaller names have come more out of the picture and movement and energy and adoption is more going towards those top 20.
We look at that as a healthy sign that the market is maturing and focusing on names that can attach to the narrative. blockchain technology.
Similarly with meme coins, which were very popular in 2024 and helped Salana rocket into everybody's consciousness.
Same thing right during that time we look at meme coins ratioed into Coin desk 20 and Coin desk 20 spending Coin desk $20 to buy meme coins has been a poor trade during the year.
So again, fewer distractions, more focus on names where blockchain technology will change the way we do.
Things we looked at those as healthy signs.
And finally, Andy, before I let you go, a few more weeks until year end, but a lot of anticipation.
So what are the catalysts you're paying attention to?
I mean, key levels Bitcoin used to be 90, used to be 100 used to be 110.
Let's try to hold on to 90 and get back over 100.
I think that will be a sign of health.
Ethereum's success here is critical, right?
Ethereum is holding ether is holding on to 3000 pretty well.
Remember it was down in the 1500s back in March before its powerful rally, but there's so much focus on stablecoins, on tokenization, on adoption, on payments.
Those layer ones Ethereum, Solana, and the other blockchains that are involved with payments like XRP, they're going to be very important to watch.
So for Coin desk 20 level.
Let's try to retake 3000, get back towards 4000 for Ethereum, for ether similarly, let's try to use 3000 as a support level and get back towards that 4000 level.
I think those movements and those price levels will be a sign of return of sentiment and return of energy to the market.
OK, Andy, well thank you so much for joining us on this Thursday morning and have a happy Thanksgiving holiday.
Thanksgiving.
Thank you so much, Andy.
