Bitcoin ‘Uptober’ Arrives Early

Mm.

Bitcoin jumping above the 119,000 level as we head into the final quarter of 2025.

The latest move comes as the US government shutdown added uncertainty to markets, but at the same time, Fed rate cuts bets did jump up.

We are seeing investors betting on seasonal strength for crypto.

Now October has historically been Bitcoin's best month, rising in 10 of the last 12 years, and the seasonal boost often called October by crypto. also extends to Q4 with Bitcoin, showing gains in 4 of the past 5 Q4 periods.

Well joining me this morning to weigh in is Kyle Chaffey, who's CEO of MB Global.

Good morning, Kyle.

Great to have you on.

And in terms of timing, what a morning to be here.

So investors are betting on a seasonal October to look forward to the final quarter of this year.

So give us your take on what we're seeing in terms of price action across crypto.

Hey, good morning, Remy.

Thanks for having me.

And you absolutely nailed it.

Yeah, this time it, oh, wow, we, we really had, uh, the seasonality thing playing in.

Even more than so it seems anyway, even more than we kind of would have predicted because typically the seasonality October, as you rightfully called it, usually really starts to kick off the second half of October.

And so we're, we saw it really strong yesterday on October 1st coming, uh, you know, from Bitcoin, really seeing the a sell-off at the end of September, which historically has been a very weak month for Bitcoin.

All the way down to $109,000 and today, as you rightfully said, it's surpassed $119,000.

So just in a couple of days there has really shot up and it's because the evidence is just stacked, you know, when you're looking at speculation on price, if all you can do is probabilities and you have to look at what history has shown us, and it shows us that Q4, after the year of a Bitcoinh has always, always been extremely strong, and that's what you're seeing now.

Yeah, and Kyle, as you mentioned, with so many headlines coming into our phones, it's hard to really make sense of what's going on.

But zooming out and looking at those charts and looking at performance helps, and you mentioned seasonality, but as we head into the final months of 2025, which is hard to believe, we're keeping an eye on what's coming out of the nation's capital, especially on the regulatory front and the SCCCFTC held its first round table in nearly 15 years earlier this week.

At the same time, we heard from the US Treasury Department and they clarified unrealized gains on digital assets won't be subject to the corporate alternative minimum tax.

So with all these developments, what do you think are the key takeaways and what do you expect as we head not just into your end but also 2026?

Well, it's been a massive shift in the sentiment in America for crypto and blockchain technology.

I mean, You know, just 6 months ago, I was one of the crypto founders who offshored.

I left America in 2017 because of the regulatory uncertainty and environment and when Trump started campaigning to become, you know, to make America the crypto capital of the world, I moved back because I wanted to be a core part of what was going on here.

And even just last year when we saw the SEC and the CFTC having turf wars over who was going to Enforce and regulate the crypto industry.

In a very negative way.

We had Operation Choke.

2.0.

We had all these wells notices, we had all these lawsuits going on from the from the SEC, and now what you see is a complete 180 overhaul and shift in direction.

We've seen it from the top down saying that.

It is imperative that America updates its traditional financial infrastructure and goes on chain.

We're seeing that push from the SEC, from from the Trump administration to bring our traditional financial rails on chain, and make them trade quicker, more efficient, cheaper, faster.

These things are really, really important, more transparent.

And as you said, a huge landmark moment happened just recently where the CFTC and the SEC got together in a roundtable, which we haven't seen in well over a decade, to, to stop trying to have a turf war on who is going to Regulate the industry and work together to say we need to put this as a top priority to make sure that we don't fall behind, that we become the country that innovates the first and uh and that we recognize that this is a, you know, a national security issue essentially to get our financial infrastructure updated to have a very modern, essentially.

Yeah, and Kyle, finally, before I let you go as we count down to the opening bell here at the New York Stock Exchange, we're focused on crypto and digital assets, but what role do you think institutional investors, as well as Treasury liquidity plays as we continue to watch Bitcoin's price action?

What do you make of all of this?

And of course the recent focus on debts based on the price action, where do we go from here?

Well, you saw, you saw what attempts to happen in any kind of new, new narrative, right?

And of course, first it was Michael Saylor with strategy, and I think there's little room to argue that he's the dominant force when it comes to Bitcoin.

And then you've got Bitmine and, and then Tom Lee's company on Ethereum as well.

And now you have like Ford industries and another one announced yesterday for Solana.

But You know I don't think that there's enough appetite and ability for these new independent smaller DAs, digital asset treasuries to survive on their own.

So what you're starting to see now with the acquisition of Semler recently.

Is consolidation amongst theseAbs and you're starting to see an opportunity come up where some of theseAs are trading below their MNAV, meaning that if they have $100 million of Bitcoin or Ethereum on the books, but they're trading at 0.5, for example, then the stock market's valuing them at $50 million.

So a larger DAT can go acquire that company, let's say for $75 million and still get those assets on the book.

They had $100 million of assets for $75 million so they're getting a 25% discount and consolidating, and then their stock price pumps on the consolidation.

So I think we're going to start to see consolidation amongst these, but we're also seeing a global expansion.

So I think in America it's pretty saturated and only one or two from each kind of asset class will be big and be the behemoths, and they'll consume everyone else.

We'll see consolidation, but we're also starting to see a spread globally of these also number 1s and 2s for, you know, different countries around the world, which is really going to help, you know, with supporting the price, and these guys have more long term vision of holding these treasuries for decades, not.

Not seasons.

OK, Kyle, we will have to leave it there, but as always, great talking to you.

Thank you so much for joining us today and thanks for all your insight.