Welcome to Fintech TV. Bitcoin has been seeing plenty of volatility. Well, despite the headline whiplash, Bitcoin does remain remarkably resilient since the conflict in the Middle East escalated. Bitcoin is up about 7%, completely outperforming traditional safe havens. Well, joining me here at DAS 2026 is Sam Callahan, Director of Bitcoin Strategy and Research at OranjeBTC. Well, great to have you here, Sam. Thank you so much for joining me. Thanks for having me. Well, of course, we're all paying attention to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. And you and I were talking before we went on air about the uncertainty out there. But still, Bitcoin is resilient. So what do you make of the price action? It's kind of what I'd expect how Bitcoin would perform during rising geopolitical uncertainty. And I think part of it is Bitcoin has been acting like a leading indicator for a while now. And so Bitcoin had a price correction in Q4 and is starting to find some support. So I think that's part of it. And gold obviously had a run and now it's seen a significant correction. So is silver. So it's a little bit of a timing thing. But in reality, when you look at rising geopolitical uncertainty, when you look at things like the outbreak of war, an asset that doesn't have any counterparty risk, that can't be debased, and is resistant to such capital controls or such chip resistance. Like this is some of the things where Bitcoin really shines in terms of its monetary characteristics. And so it's not surprising to me to see it have some resilience here. If we know a couple of things about war when we look at history, one is that they're highly inflationary. We're seeing that with the oil prices. They disrupt global trade. It leads to rising commodity prices across the board, which leaks into the CPI and other inflation measures. And the other thing is that government spent wars are expensive. And so those things kind of work together. But wars lead to more government spending, higher deficits. and more inflationary pressures, all of that should lead to more demand for an asset that protects you against the government spending and inflationary pressures like Bitcoin or other hard assets.
Yeah, and when we're looking at price action across all asset classes, of course, we're paying attention to oil prices. You mentioned inflation. That is a concern for global economies. So here in the U.S., we are more protected than other economies because economies out in Asia are announcing states of emergency. But we know global central banks, they are eyeing what to do in terms of the rate outlook. You and I were talking about the price of gas, the national average of unleaded gas in the U.S. is an inch closer to that $4 level. And I think when we talk about asset classes shining, we've seen gold outperform. But where do you see everything going in the near term? Well, I think you make a good point is that when you look at, say, the Strait of Hormuz and what's going on there and who it impacts, it's really Asia, like you said. It's countries like Japan who really depend on their oil needs through the Strait of Hormuz. And why that matters for, say, the U.S. market is it's all connected and they own a lot of U.S. treasuries. And when we look at, say, the long end of the bond market in the U.S., we're seeing yields rise from inflation expectations rising. That's probably part of it. But it's also this concern that maybe they have to sell their Treasury holdings, which is going to lead to pressures on the long-end yields, which is not something that I think the Treasury would like to see when they have to refinance all that money over the next year or so. And if they have to issue a lot of debt, especially if they have to pay for this war, I mean, Trump is coming out and saying they need an extra $200 billion that they go to Congress. And we're only a few weeks into this thing. That's when I said wars are expensive. And what they can't let happen is the bond market to get away from them. And so all of this is connected when we think about who this affects in terms of rising oil prices, who owns the treasuries. Another one is the UK. UK was short energy, but they hold a lot of treasuries. That could impact the bond market, you know. So all these things are tied together. And again, when you look at history, you don't want to own fixed income in this environment if they had to issue more debt. or inflationary pressures rise, they're going to lose in real terms. And so when you see yield rise, I think it's bond investors being like, hey, we want more compensation because of these inflationary pressures because we're going to lose in real terms. And so the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, they're going to have some decisions to make if this war continues longer than people expect. Yeah, and we're keeping our eyes on the Federal Reserve, not just from a rate outlook perspective, but also politically as we head into the rest of this year. But I think one thing that really does stand out is when we take a step back and look at what we've been seeing with this conflict in the Middle East is how global economies have reacted, especially emerging markets. So what do you make of the role of Bitcoin in developing economies? Well, Bitcoin remains as important as ever in developing economies because their currencies are more unstable. When it really comes down to it, Bitcoin is a way to protect your savings over the long term and protect yourself against the mismanagement of currencies by central banks and governments. And so in developing countries, you have more instability. When you have large wars break out like this, there's always a lot of reactions in the FX markets and the bond markets. And so, you know, Bitcoin is that asset that's there for anybody. I call it a open sanctuary for savings. because it's permissionless. Anybody can access it in any country. And that's why it's so such a powerful technology. And so in Brazil, it's it's increasingly important in places like Iran. So like, for instance, you saw crypto activity or Bitcoin activity spike during the war. It's because, you know, I like to ask your listeners, what would you do if you had to leave overnight, flee a war-torn country? What assets could you take with you? Can you take the painting on the wall? Can you take jewelry or all your gold bars across the border? Can you flee with that? Well, Bitcoin, you can hold it with 12 words in your head. And so when it's a digital asset, a digital store of value, You start to realize why that's important when chaos starts to emerge, of why you could easily flee with at least some portion of your wealth so you could restart elsewhere. And so I think whenever you see kind of uncertainty rise or these unfortunate developments come to light, it really makes Bitcoin value propositions shine in some ways. Yeah, and as you mentioned, we are monitoring what's happening in nation states and in particular, Iran, as well as Lebanon in terms of digital asset activity. But you and I, we are here in New York City at Digital Asset Summit 2026, and a lot of conversations are taking place amidst TradFi, DeFi, as well as policymakers. Interestingly enough, we are seeing a lot of activity at side events as well. So what are some of the conversations that you're having and what would you say is the mood on the ground? I think the mood on the ground is optimistic, but I think, like you said, there's a lot of uncertainty. And so I think everybody is cautiously optimistic, right? We've had this correction, we're starting to find some bottom, some consolidation, and we're starting to kind of build out of that. But in terms of the builders, nothing's really changed. We've seen this volatility before at Bitcoin. It's really, we just keep our heads down and building. I think the most exciting conversations is around digital credit products like STRC, like strategies issued. Those improve accessibility and they really are groundbreaking in terms of allowing people to get steady income, price stability, as well as good asset coverage on a credit instrument. So we see what's happening in private credit right now, right? Private credit is you can earn a higher yield, but that comes with risks. It comes with illiquidity risks. There's people as they close redemptions, people are learning about that kind of the hard way. And when you look at assets like STRC, you know, that provides liquidity. It has monthly distributions. It has a more competitive deal than other private credit or credit instruments. It's backed by an asset that is very transparent. You don't have the opaqueness of private credit where you have a loan book with potential questionable quality of loans in it. You have an asset that's supported by Bitcoin, which is transparent, auditable, homogenous. It's all right there. You know exactly where Bitcoin is. You can check it on Shane and you have access. And that's what the credit instruments backed by instead of say a opaque loan book that you and you also can't take your money out of. So I think you're going to see the rise of these credit instruments like SDRC, like SATA. from these Bitcoin treasury companies and it's going to improve access to Bitcoin. It's also going to provide a more durable, you know, less risky fixed income instrument that's backed by pristine collateral Bitcoin. And so that's the most exciting conversations that I've been having at DAS. And finally, before I let you go, in a nutshell, what do you think is going to happen when it comes to legislation here in the U.S.? There's been a lot of expectations heading into 2026, but in reality, what do you expect to see? I think they need to get something done soon. I think you saw comments from Senator Cynthia Lummis recently that said they're close. I think the stablecoin yield has been the sticky point that, you know, the bank lobby and the crypto lobby has been knocking heads against. But it sounds like they potentially have a resolution. And once that happens, I hope they can get this clarity act across the board. Coinbase recently came out with their institutional survey a couple weeks ago. The number one concern from institutional investors was uncertain regulatory environment. So more regulatory clarity with the passage of the Clarity Act could really open the doors for more capital coming from that cohort of institutional investors, which obviously they manage trillions and trillions of dollars. So that could provide incremental demand for Bitcoin and maybe help us pull out of this correction if we can get some regulatory clarity. I think we need to get that done soon. I think the longer it goes on going into the midterms, it gets a little bit more difficult. But I'm cautiously optimistic there too.
