Thank you as always, Jane.
Time now to get to the big story breakdown on this Friday morning.
The major averages entering Friday trade all higher on the week.
We've seen gold hit a two-week high while oil heading for its steepest weekly drop since June.
Apple stock, meanwhile, remember it's been a busy week for Tim Cook and the president.
That company leading the mag 7 in terms of gains this week.
It's been a long time since we've said that about Apple.
That big investment in US manufacturing.
Nvidia meanwhile continuing its push higher, making again another all-time high for Nvidia.
US chip maker sitting comfortably as the president's 100% tariffs on semiconductors spare some companies who are committed to building in the USA.
Joining me this morning from the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange is a longtime veteran.
Of this very trading floor and institution himself, the great Peter Tuchman, senior floor trader at Trade Moss, who else would I want to talk to?
Good morning.
Good morning, my friend.
How are you?
What are you seeing in these markets right now?
You know, it's quite amazing.
I mean, you're always wondering when markets, you know, flatline off the top for a while, what's the next move?
Is it going to be hitting up against resistance or are we going to sort of build a foundation and break through?
And you know with all the uncertainty still around the story, I mean you saw that, you know, you had a great intro, but the president, you know, going up against India, you know, the tariffs are back again in question.
Obviously we've seen a lot of economic data over the last week or so, right?
We saw that Wednesday meeting with the Fed, OK, where he did not cut rates even though I have sort of felt maybe he should do a.
Pivott because GDP came in super solid, right, even better than expected.
But then we had, but he didn't even give guidance for September.
I thought that was curious.
Then we had Friday's jobs numbers which were incredibly disappointing.
And so it's we're back to that point where Remy and I used to talk about it's good news, it's bad news or bad news is good news, where the bad numbers and the and the They reassessed the the the jobs claims from before they were even worse than expected, so that economic data then set the stage for more cuts, right?
So I think that's what we're going to start to see.
We're going to start a bit of a trickle from the Federal Reserve about possible cuts in September and maybe one in November.
And so that's where we are, but we still have tariffs is the main question.
Markets traded record highs.
It's unbelievable.
S&P's got, you know, a 64 written all over it.
If not, you know, Dan I believes that there's going to be a 7 in front of that before, before the year is out.
We are somehow up 31% off those April 7th lows.
You and I had so many conversations.
It's been incredible V-shaped recovery and equities.
I was wondering early this morning.
It's always impossible to know what's really priced into the markets, but we know at some point we'll get interest rate cuts.
Are you in the camp that sort of says, The market is anticipating those cuts or maybe once we get those cuts it's even a little bit more rocket fuel.
I don't think we were anticipating them until Friday, until this last Friday when we got those jobless numbers, right, because we've been getting good economic data and good economic data sets the stage.
We also know that the question there was that fear what we know that the president wants them to be cut.
Jay Powell was holding firm on the fact that In a low growth or slow growth environment with high interest with high tariffs, you're going to have the fear of stagflation, right?
And that was what that's something hard to navigate out of and that's why JP Powell was holding firm by not cutting rates, but now.
I think he's not buckling under the pressure.
There's no question about that because I think you know he holds, there's a line in the sand that he drew.
He drew that line when he went with the hard hat out there with the president the other day.
That was strange was that strange it was beyond strange, but all that being said.
I think we're setting the stage with those jobless numbers that we are going to get cuts, and so that's it.
Maybe some of it is priced in.
Now I mean because we are trading at record highs, my gut is though, you know, are we ever going to just like check all the boxes off?
We got the EU, we've got Japan, we've got a number of the countries already in good shape.
All the Apple story, all of this major investment in the US, right?
Jensen talking to the president, $500 million or a billion, I can't even tell anymore.
You know, investment in the US, Apple, big week for Apple, as you said, we have not seen them in the mix for a while.
They were the.
Performer in the Mach 7, right, but all the other names are trading at record highs, right?
Microsoft earnings blew out, you know, I mean we had great earnings this season and what's important to note is last quarter we did have reasonable earnings, but it was all shrouded by the inability for all these companies to give guidance.
Now we're getting good earnings.
Stress tests for the banks were good.
Banks out of the gate for earnings were good, and we're able to give guidance.
So with all that said, I think we're painting a picture here.
Framing it up for a solid market.
I know one of your favorite Wall Street adages is markets climb a wall of worry.
Yes, how would you define what that worry looks like right now, because at times when you and I have talked the last few months, the worry has been really front and center right now maybe it's a bit of a muddled more economic picture.
I'm not entirely sure what the worry is or where it is or if it's moved at all the last few months.
So that's a really great point.
I think there's probably worry in the fact that people are fearful that whenever Markets trade at record highs that they're going to fall and that this is a bubble and that you know we are still one tweet away from Crazy Town.
Let's be clear, right?
But the market has not been engaging that, right?
I mean we still look at the fight we're going up against India right now.
A couple of months ago, if we had heard that story about a 50% tariff with India and that sort of combative thing going on, the market will respond in a negative way.
I think we've got a lot going on with the president, Russia and Ukraine.
That doesn't tend to have much effect on the market.
Where, where does the worry lie?
I think it's just fear that when markets trade in such an irrational enthusiasm and so robustly that it's got to fall.
My gut is I think we're setting the stage with all of this with the interest rate cuts.
That's kind of that's pouring gas on the fire, right?
And that historically.
At least over the last couple of years when we did that, the market tended to rally.
So, you know, look, it seems to me that they're buying everything that's not tied down.
They're buying crypto.
They're buying gold.
I mean there's not even a hedge here going on.
They're buying all the stocks and when the days this week where we saw a bit of a sell off, that was rotational.
If you look.
Even the days where we sold off significantly, the advances versus declines were 50/50.
What does that mean to me?
Experience as you have it as well is that people are getting out of the out or underperformers and getting into value.
We saw those days that the rustle was up.
So for me, people are looking for value.
They're looking to get into the market in any way they can.
I've got just a couple seconds left.
We are entering what's historically the weakest part of the year for equities August, September, October.
What does your experience tell you that investors should keep in mind the next few weeks?
So look, August 5th, last year we had a major crash here, correct?
The Japanese stock market crashed and that was significant.
We obviously then had some cuts in September.
It really will depend on the cuts.
If we start to come in a little bit and They cut.
I think it would offset all that fear.
Seasonality sometimes is engaged, sometimes it's not.
I can't predict it.
I know I know I look like Einstein.
I'm not that freaking smart.
To me, you are as smart, if not smarter than Einstein.
The Einstein of Wall Street Peter, my very good friend, senior floor trader at TradeMOs.
Thank you for being here as always.
Great to have you.
My pleasure.
Thank you, sir.
