Let's get to the big story breakdown.
It is Halloween and big tech earnings this week bringing both tricks and treats.
Tech stocks sliding Thursday as Meta and Microsoft weighed on the market, but Amazon and Apple spiking pre-market on this Friday morning on the heels of the latest earnings results, as well as Outlook.
Now Meta Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are all planning to spend more next year, placing big bets on future growth as well as infrastructure.
And earlier this week, Fetcher Jerome Powell played down chances of a December rate cut, and Trump and China's Xi Jinping reached a limited trade truce.
Well, joining me on this Halloween as well as Friday morning is Peter Tuchman, senior floor trader at Trade Mosque.
So Peter, happy Friday, final trading session of October.
Is that amazing or what?
I can't believe it.
You know, I dressed up like Einstein for.
You don't even need to have.
About both the tricks as well as treats we saw with the big tech earnings and pre-market trade, we are looking at Amazon rallying and Apple higher as well.
But what do you make of this mixed price action we saw this week?
You know, look, it was a baffling week in lots of ways.
Think about it.
We've been trading sort of blindly with the government shutdown, and all eyes were basically on two things this week, obviously the meeting with the President of China and Mr.
Trump.
Look, our largest trading partner as well as our largest, our most contentious trading partner and two of the largest egos in the global, global market play global stage, I would say.
And so we weren't sure how that was going to come, but immediately right off the bat that was a positive one.
Then we had the Fed meeting, probably the most anticipated Fed meeting of all time, just because of the fact that Fed meetings, especially times where it's just more than chat, where we're actually.
Cutting it or raising interest rates is based on economic data and we've been trading blind or flying blindly for the last month without that information.
I find it a little bit odd that in the year 2025 with AI and everything that we can't really come up with those numbers, but you know.
What people may not know is that those numbers actually are done by surveys, right?
And so if the government offices are shut down and agencies are shut down and all that, I guess they can't get the numbers anyway.
He was able to get whatever numbers he needed to come up with the decision that really when we got that CPI last Friday that spiked up the probability of a 25 base point cut for today for Wednesday.
I think what really knock knocked the heck out of the market because 2 o'clock. was sort of muted when he announced that, but what happened was the minute he started talking at 2:30 and he mentioned that the December cut is not a surety.
It's the words he used and they hang on every one of his words that took everybody by surprise.
Now I don't know if that is a posturing against Mr.
Trump or that the economic data changed that radically, but when we, when he pivoted in in Jackson Hole, Davos, when he pivoted at Jackson Hole.
You know, it was very clear that the economic data was soft enough, whether it was pay or non-farm payrolls, unemployment picking up from 1 to 4.1 to 4.2%, you know, a number of things CPI, we're starting to see the impact of tariffs on the consumer, consumer confidence on the banks, regional banks.
I mean, it was setting the stage for two more cuts like we had last year.
I kind of thought, you know, now there was also one last thing is the dissent, right?
On that was fascinating because look, we know that there is one.
Governor who is a Trump appointee.
Now he for sure was a 50 basis point guy.
There were 2 dissenters, 3 dissenters.
Two looking for a 50 basis point cut and one actually looking for no cut at all.
I'm not sure what he's drinking for breakfast, but that seems a little bit odd.
So there were a lot of mixed messages coming out of the Fed meeting.
Yes, and I'm glad you mentioned that because the US government shutdown continues and for now there is no end in sight and without the clarity from the economic data we don't know what's happening in the labor market, for example, as well as.
Although we did get those CPI figures.
So given all of that, we have been hearing from the big tech names as well as other consumer names and other sectors this week.
So what did you make of the tech earnings first and foremost because we saw stocks fall yesterday, but here we are pre-market.
Amazon set to rally.
So you said Amazon and Apple's earnings were better and then you uh which one was down meta meta, you know, it's funny.
It's not a very forgiving market.
People are kind of as fascinating as you know, if you go back to the earlier days of my, at least my career, you know, there were not moves like 75 points, you know, I know, back then there weren't that many stocks trading at $600 right?
And so it is a bit, you know, it is a bit inflated in all respects, but these are major moves when they don't like a company or they're disappointed in earnings, right, they just sell it with abandon and so we're seeing that.
And look, it's the upside and the downside when they love them, Apple.
Amazon are spiking higher and then you've got Meta that is getting it was down $75 yesterday.
I mean that's significant.
It's a $670 stock.
That's legit, but that's that's more than 10%.
And so that's fairly significant.
You know what, look, we're in an environment where everybody is positioning themselves and they're doing it in a big way, and there's enough profit in the trades that they're in that when they want to get in, they get in with aggressive abandon, and when they want to get out, they want out, right?
They're not waiting.
Around for the next shoe to fall, right?
And so that's something different than historically used to happen.
Yeah, and Peter, you're here on the trading floor every day.
So what are the conversations that you're having about the markets, especially as we head into your end, because traditionally we see that Santa Claus rally and gains.
So do we go higher from here?
And if so, what are your price targets?
You know what, look, I am, we are at 47.5% on the Dow.
It's going up so fast that I can't even print the hats.
So you haven't what I.
I'm just printing the 50,000 right that way I'm covered no matter what happens.
Then you've got the S&P that's trading, you know, inching its way towards 7000, and we talked about it and then I'ves called a 7 in front of that number for the last 4 or 5 months, even when we were not looking as good, right, even in February, March, and April, we felt that, you know what, we're going to check off all the boxes, you know, that the that the that the president, what will it take?
You and I did it spoke about it many times.
What it take to get this market to turn around when we were down 20.8% back in February, March, and April, and we talked about that deals needed to be done, right?
Remember that Bess and Lutnick said deal, deal, deal, done, done, done.
Well, it took a while, but those deals are done now, and we are now the president is with with the president of China, and we talked about fentanyl.
We talked about soybeans.
We talked about rare earth minerals.
We talked about, you know, just being more cooperative trading partners all across.
Board this is the deal that this market has been looking for, and I think that's probably one of the besides the spike in tech.
I think this is one of the contributing factors to the market being in such solid shape.
Now think about it.
We're at the end of October.
Normally in a month, right, normally in a month you'd see profit taking.
Is the Santa Claus coming to town?
My gut is yes, you know, because think about it.
Everything that's been thrown at this market and yet the sell offs, pullbacks, consolidations have been so shallow that my gut is.
When we have any kind of good news coming and maybe we'll have a good buying season and you know, and Black Monday for Thanksgiving and Christmas will be solid, you know, we're not seeing as bad an impact on tariffs that we thought would be.
This market could just, you know, go to the moon.
I'm looking at Dow 50,000, S&P 7000.
Well a lot to keep our eyes on, Peter.
So you and I will be back bright and early on Monday morning, so I look forward to speaking with you thanks to Billy for sure, bright and early.
