Let's bring in Jay Woods.
Jay, you called this yesterday a bend but not break markets.
You have been watching 6830, that 100 day moving average in the S&P.
What have you seen today in these markets?
Yes, we're seeing a resilient market.
We're getting headlines that get a lot of people jittery, and it's a little confusing out there, but Fear not, we are holding key levels, but now we know the ceiling was 7000.
Now it feels like that ceiling is 6900, and this range continues to narrow.
When you see activity like this, it's been one of the narrowest ranges to ever start a year.
Something feels like it's going to give.
Is it going to be the floor or the ceiling?
The catalyst Nvidia didn't take us over the hump despite great earnings.
Maybe Broadcom.
That today after the bell we'll see we've seen rotation back into those heavy beaten down tech names, especially in software, and those high blind names and energy in Staples getting hit today.
So rotation continues.
We saw rotation out of the markets that have been on fire below South Korea down 12% after being up 200% in the last year.
Gold, silver, major pullbacks after people ran into them.
So people seem to have Anticipated something happening in the world and now they're jockeying back to, all right, we got through that.
Where do we go?
I don't know what's going to break us, but right now we're bending and we're not breaking back to your point that's a fascinating note, which was your point that I repeated because I watch all of your TV hits.
Fascinating fact there about the S&P being rage bound, but as I've heard from a great technician, sideways is a direction, as the great Jay Woods likes to say.
Let me ask you about Target.
We've got a lot of retail.
Names this year that continues to be the big outperformer, up fractionally on the day, up more than 20% year to date.
Maybe a bit of a catchup trade from how a trade relative to the other retail names last year.
What are you seeing?
Yes, a new leader at the helm, Mike Fiddleke, also his first quarter as CEO.
We are seeing a nice turnaround.
That stock has been beaten down since its 2021 high, still in a very long term downtrend, but has room to run higher, and that's what we're looking for.
Yesterday that was lost with. the Iranian headlines, understandably so, but the stock has done something well.
It's consistently starting to go higher.
I think the turnaround is real.
As a technician, I look at price action.
I think over the next three months this stock can be in the low 130s, maybe even test 140.
So they're doing things the right way fundamentally and technically the story is confirming that.
Can I ask you about Broadcom, up 1.5% today.
We do have their earnings.
Call set to cross the tape really here any minute.
One of the places maybe to put money to work despite all the volatility and the uncertainty as of late.
What were you following?
I will follow price action obviously.
We saw it with Nvidia.
Nvidia has been sideways in a direction for 7 months.
All right.
We thought it was going to break out with that phenomenal fundamental report.
It wasn't enough to push it.
It came back to its floor.
It's another stock.
You look at Nvidia, you look at Broadcom.
3310 is.
Level I want to see hold.
If it breaks 300, I'll be concerned.
I wouldn't want to jump in.
I'd rather buy it on strength, see a good day and close at the high and get this stock back on track.
So hopefully the news is good, the guide is good, and price action confirms that that's what's been missing good price action in this market.
That's a sentiment factor to me, and that makes me a little skittish that we're not really going anywhere right now after last.
Friday is hotter than expected.
Was it?
I was on vacation.
Was it wholesale?
It was PPI inflation print.
Does that underscore the importance of Friday's jobs numbers all the more so?
No, I think that jobs numbers top of mind.
I mean, we're talking about the Fed, not enough, but Kevin Warsh is the official nominee.
What is he going to do?
He's got 2 more meetings, and he takes the reins.
If you haven't noticed, the president wants to cut rates, but if the jobs number increases, If PPI, CPI, inflationary numbers go higher and gas prices go higher, the biggest cause of inflation, it's going to be very difficult for a new Fed chief to come in and say, hey, let's cut rates if inflation is getting out of control.
So we want to see a stabilization on jobs.
That will be Friday.
And then next week CPI, PCE, the Fed's preferred inflationary gauge, comes out.
That will then put the Fed back in the spotlight.
We're watching more now from inflation.
Gas prices at the pump.
Let's see if we can keep oil under 75.
If it spikes above 80, stays there for a long time, could be problematic for the new Fed.
Before I let you go, talk to me a bit more about how you're thinking about the Fed.
I found it interesting that we have not really heard a lot of public commentary from Kevin Warsh.
We finally got the announcement from the president.
Maybe the people trying to see, will he speak out in a way that market participants follow.
Closely than Jerome Powell's been kind of silent on the FOMC front.
Well, we're still waiting to hear if they pull back from this investigation into Jerome Powell about the renovations.
The people that are voting for Kevin Warsh's nomination have said, all right, we won't vote until this Powell display, this, you know, ridiculous lawsuit goes away, so.
There's a lot of drama that will come back into the spotlight for now.
I'm glad we're not dealing with that because it's just that drama, not fundamental news.
So we'll get to the Kevin Warsh drama and the nomination process over the coming weeks.
But let's focus on inflation, let's focus on Iran, and then we'll get to the Fed in due time.
Absolutely the great Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets and a CNBC contributor.
