Market Movers: Record Highs Amid Government Shutdown Uncertainty

It is finally Friday and what a week it's been the first full week of October and the 4th quarter saw all-time highs for gold, Bitcoin, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Russell 2000.

While the federal government shutdown continues and does threaten to disrupt key economic data reports that markets rely on, including inflation and jobs numbers.

Will the data gap adding to uncertainty for Fed officials already divided on how to balance.

Inflation signs of a weakening labor market.

Well joining me to weigh in is Peter Tuchman, senior floor trader at Trademos.

Peter, happy Friday.

Great to have you.

Happy Friday.

Well, I'm glad that we're closing out the week together on market movers.

We are looking at the stock averages opening in positive territory today.

So what do you make of all the record highs we've seen this week?

You know what, it's been quite extraordinary.

Look, we do know that this week we did have Couple of very shallow sell offs.

I mean, I wouldn't even call them that, you know, really kind of nothing burgers, to be honest, and we're down 20 or 30 or whatever, but not insignificant, and I think the market's sort of in a little bit of a crossroads because it's really not clear what to do.

I think, so where are we?

So we have a government shutdown.

The market is clearly not engaging that, right?

And I think the longer we know that the longer this goes on, it will start to impact GDP, right?

There was Number tossed around by Besant that said if it stays shut for more than 3 weeks, it will actually impact could impact the GDP as much as 1% going forward.

I also heard a number that $15 billion as of Monday it will be $15 billion a day in cost to overruns and whatnot around that.

So even with all that going on, the market still closes out at record highs.

You just listed.

Literally every indices S&P, crypto, you know, gold, all these things, the rustle, I mean trading at least we had the 33rd record close, I think this week midweek.

So I mean why is it happening?

A number of reasons, right?

So we're in the 4th quarter.

There's a lot of new allocation.

Money into the market.

We know that there's a lot of money still on the sidelines from last quarter or the 2nd quarter that people are underinvested in the market.

They've got to play catch up.

We know that there's still a huge influx of money going into the market from the capex and stuff from all the mag 7 stocks, right, who have A sort of confirmed or you know or what's the word I'm blocking, but you know we know that they've decided that they're going to put a bunch of money.

We saw Microsoft and Google and obviously Oracle.

A lot of those companies that are not necessarily AI companies are committing a lot of capital into that space.

So we also know that 5 years down the road we're going to be starting we're building, we're starting now to build these data centers and all this other stuff and so and earnings, right?

We're coming out of the gate this morning.

Levi, Pepsi.

And one other stock sort of gave us an overview of the first stocks coming out of the gate with earnings that seem super solid.

Yeah, and speaking of earnings, Peter, the official start to earnings season starts next week.

We hear from the big banks, including Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs.

So that will be key to watch and of course we'll watch guidance and in terms of economic data, we are expected to get CPI not as scheduled necessarily, but some of the workers at the BLS will.

Be coming back.

So of course ahead of that reserve meeting at the end of this month we'll continue to watch the economic data that we managed to get heading into next week, Columbus Day on Monday, but we'll be here.

So what are you watching?

You know what, look, I'm just watching the overall market to see what's going to be the next catalyst.

When you have a market that trades at record highs for such a prolonged period of time, the question that you have, I mean, I'm not an analyst, but I love to forensically break down what moves the market.

Are we building a base to go higher or are we hitting up against resistance?

I think there's enough news that needs to come out right over the next couple of weeks.

I mean, obviously, as much as this, the shutdown of the government's been a bit of a nothing burger, what happens next, either a prolonged or an end to it is going to be a catalyst in the market either going up or down.

We know that, right?

So and it's just kind of curious the way the market is reacting to that.

So that's a big thing.

We're going to clearly be watching earnings.

And guidance and see if the if the banks come out next week with super solid.

I think everyone's fear is that we're going to start to see the impact of tariffs on everything, right, whether it's retail, whether it's banks, whether it's consumer staples, you know, we're at that point now where all the tariffs have been in motion for a while and we're going to start to see how they affect it.

So you know those are the things I'm looking for.

OK, Peter, you and I will be back bright and early on Monday morning, so thank you so much for joining me and training.