“I surely think that 25 is a guarantee… whether we’re going to have a 50 that’s starting to grow up to as much as 12% that would be super exciting.” – 02:21
Peter Tuchman, Senior Floor Trader at TradeMas, joins Remy Blaire at the New York Stock Exchange to discuss the current state of the U.S. labor market and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
The segment begins with Remy highlighting the recent jobs report, which has raised concerns about the labor market and sparked expectations of potential rate cuts by the Fed. Peter emphasizes the importance of looking beyond seasonal trends, particularly in September, as he argues that August was a month filled with significant market events, including tariffs and record highs.
Peter elaborates on the recent economic indicators, noting that unemployment is rising and job creation is softer than expected. He attributes these trends to the impact of tariffs on the economy and consumer behavior. This backdrop, he suggests, sets the stage for a potential pivot in the Fed’s policy, with a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming meeting on September 17th. He also discusses the growing probability of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, which is becoming a topic of interest among market participants.
As the conversation shifts to market dynamics, Peter shares his observations regarding the influx of capital into the S&P 500. He notes that nearly $10 billion has flowed into the market in just the first three days of September, contributing to record highs in the S&P and other indices. Despite the underlying economic challenges, this significant investment reflects a level of confidence among investors.
Remy and Peter also discuss the performance of gold and cryptocurrencies, with Peter highlighting the maturation of retail investors. He points out that these investors are no longer merely reacting to market fluctuations; instead, they are strategically buying into various assets, including equities, gold, and crypto. This behavior indicates a strong confidence in the market’s upward trajectory.