Well, Bitcoin dipped below the 100,000 level yet again yesterday amid a sell-off for both stocks as well as crypto.
Now in New York morning trade, we are looking at the crypto major barely holding on to the 95,000 level.
In terms of percentage, Bitcoin is now only up about 2% today despite all of the regulatory.
Progress that has taken hold here in the US.
While the rose at the start of October as the government shutdown began, a lack of catalysts weighed on prices over the last 6 weeks.
Now the market structure bill or Clarity Act now looks unlikely to be passed by the end of the year, and the SEC's project crypto has stalled out.
Joining me this morning.
Live at the New York Stock Exchange is Adrian Wall, managing director for Digital Sovereignty Alliance and also CEO of Wall Capital Partners.
Adrian, good morning.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Thank you for having me.
Well, first and foremost, we're seeing a sea of red, not just in crypto but also across equity markets as well.
So what do you make of the volatility we've seen this year?
So the way I see it is yesterday was a remix of the same album of October 10th, and that's Liquidity Crisis, right?
So same song but different lyrics.
October 10th was all about, you know, the Fed.
Their interest rates were cut, were kind of hawkish.
We had the China tariffs that were announced, or at least the specter of China tariffs, and of course we had the government shutdown, so there was so much uncertainty in the market, and that really led to a flight to safety.
And on top of that, the market makers were then taking the liquidity off the table and it just got even worse.
Yes.
Remix same basic message liquidity crisis, but this time the lyrics are slightly different.
So we saw ETFs yesterday get pummeled.
We saw about 870 million just yesterday alone taken out, and that brings November total to date to about 1.8 billion on top of that.
Uh, we had that news that the Fed was actually likely not going to cut rates in December.
That confidence went from, I think 90% into some reports I read were down to 40% on the back of inflation concerns, stabilized labor market.
And then you also have on top of that you've got the government reopening, but who knows how long that's going to take for us to normalize, right?
And that government delay means that it's going to take us even longer to get those CPI data that we really need, right?
And then the last thing I'll mention is that all of this is just going to continue to, I think, snowball.
There's that psychological, that psychological number before it was about 100,000, and now we're saying like 98,000, and we're going to continue to push that forward.
If those numbers continue to dip, I think we're still, we're still kind of in this headwind.
Yeah, and Adrian, you highlighted some key points there when it comes to the macro outlook.
Of course we're all paying attention to the December Fed meeting and without the economic data coming out from the government just yet, there's a muddled picture so far and right now on this Friday morning.
After the opening bell, we are looking at nearly a 50/50 chance of actually getting a rate cut at that December meeting, but you mentioned October 10th, and that is something that all of us have been paying attention to.
So if you had to do an autopsy, what would you say are the key takeaways from that event?
Well, it's like I said, I think the big issue is the uncertainty and the uncertainty in the market leads people who are highly leverage to Bitcoin when we can talk about the strategies and the meta planets of the world, but those people who are highly leveraged to Bitcoin, those institutions who have gotten into it now, family offices, it becomes so mainstream because you have more players in it, naturally the volatility is going to be that much higher.
So I think the lesson for October 10th is.
Bitcoin and crypto in general, I believe, are going to start to follow more of the macroeconomic trends that we see other stocks and bonds following.
They're not going to be outliers anymore when when inflation is high or when the interest rates are high.
People are going to then run to safer assets.
They're going to run to gold.
They're going to run the treasury, right?
So it's going to be the same stuff that we see playing out in other markets.
Yeah, and as we count down to the end of the year, we'll obviously keep a close eye on price targets for the crypto majors, but I do want to get your take on The regulatory landscape because there's a lot of expectation at the beginning of this year, a lot of euphoria, but when it actually comes to legislation, what can we expect in terms of the beginning of 2026?
So actually I'm really bullish on the regulatory aspect of what's going on in crypto.
I know that there might be other people out there that are saying, oh well, you know, it should have been done by now.
Things should have been in place.
We really blah blah blah.
We are in a really good spot and the reason I say that is because even last week before the Senate Ag Committee, before Senator Booker and Senator Bozeman dropped their version of the Senate ag clarity bill.
I knew for a fact that people on Capitol Hill were working really, really hard in a bipartisan effort as honest brokers to try and get something done for the American people, and that gave me a lot of hope, a lot of confidence, and we're going to carry that momentum into next year.
Yes, the government slowdown, sorry, sorry, the government shutdown slowed us down for this year.
That's unfortunate, but it's OK.
I am very, very bullish that Q1, Q2, we see clarity get passed.
And finally, before I let you go, while I have you here, I do want to get your take on dollar backed stablecoins.
Where do you stand and where are we going?
Super exciting.
I think the next, I mean dollar backed stablecoins are going mainstream.
They're here to stay.
I think a year ago when I was doing when I was talking to bankers and financial institutions they were more like, what is a stablecoin?
Now it's totally different.
Now they know exactly what a stablecoin is and they're starting to think about, OK, what is that convergence between traditional finance.
And where DI can be and how can stablecoin play a role in that.
So they're really starting to think about applications now when we have regulatory clarity pun intended next Q1, Q2.
That leads the way for innovation and innovation is the really exciting part.
You start thinking about smart contracts, the programmability aspects of stablecoin, and what that can unlock for not just for financial institutions, but you know financial inclusion.
It's a huge thing and I like to say.
Um, financial inclusion without financial literacy is a bridge to nowhere.
So on the back of all this it's access without empowerment.
So on the back of all this, we really need to make sure that we are doing the proper thing vis a vis education, not just for the financial institutions and the payment professionals, but the community writ large, American people.
We need to be putting some energy and effort into that as well.
OK, Adrian, well thank you so much for joining me today and thank you so much for sharing all of your insights as well as your perspectives.
My pleasure.
Thank you very much for having me.
