Remy Blaire welcomes Mark Hamrick, Senior Analyst at Bankrate, to discuss the recent conclusion of the government shutdown and its implications for the U.S. economy. With the government now funded through January 30th, the conversation centers around the potential impact of this temporary resolution and the likelihood of future shutdowns.
Remy and Mark delve into the latest economic data, particularly focusing on the job market. They examine the figures released by ADP, which indicate that the U.S. shed an average of 2,500 private sector jobs in the four weeks ending November 1st. Mark notes that this trend suggests a slowdown in job losses, contrasting with the previous four-week period that averaged about 14,250 weekly job losses. As they anticipate the upcoming jobs report, Mark predicts that it will reflect a similar pattern to August’s data, with an expected addition of around 40,000 to 50,000 jobs necessary to maintain the unemployment rate.
The discussion shifts to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting in December, which is the final one for 2025. Remy highlights the significance of the FOMC minutes set to be released soon and how they may influence the chances of a rate cut. Mark shares that the current odds of a December rate cut are approximately 50.4 percent, emphasizing the importance of closely monitoring economic data in light of recent disruptions caused by the government shutdown.
Mark expresses concern over the political landscape, describing the government’s tendency to “kick the can down the road” rather than addressing long-term solutions. He articulates the potential for another government shutdown and the detrimental effects it has on public trust and government effectiveness.
Finally, Remy and Mark explore the role of the Federal Reserve in the current economic climate. Mark reflects on the central bank’s data-dependent approach and the mixed opinions among officials regarding interest rate adjustments. He suggests that while another quarter-point cut may not significantly alter the economic landscape, understanding the trajectory of the economy is crucial for future decision-making.