“We think there are going to be some tailwinds to growth the latter half of 2026.” – 02:35
Remy Blaire engages in a detailed discussion with Jeffrey Roach, the Chief Economist at LPL Financial, live from the New York Stock Exchange. The segment opens with an overview of the current state of Wall Street, which is experiencing gains following comments from New York Fed President John Williams advocating for a potential rate cut. The probability of a rate cut at the upcoming December meeting has climbed to 73%.
Remy and Jeffrey delve into the latest U.S. job growth figures, which have surpassed expectations with a nonfarm payroll increase of 119,000 in September—the strongest gain since April. However, they also address the revisions that show a downward adjustment of job growth in July and August by a combined 33,000, alongside a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Jeffrey emphasizes the complexity of the economic landscape, noting that even without the recent government shutdown, the situation would still be intricate.
As the conversation progresses, Jeffrey highlights the importance of the September jobs report, suggesting that while it appears strong, the revisions indicate a cooling labor market. He predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its rate-cutting campaign into 2026, with economic growth expected to slow in the first quarter of the following year.
Remy and Jeffrey also discuss the significance of upcoming data points leading up to the December Fed meeting, particularly focusing on business capital expenditures and holiday sales expectations. Jeffrey points out that while the labor market is cooling, trends in business capital expenditures will be crucial for understanding the economic outlook for 2026.
The episode further explores the volatility in equity markets following the jobs report and NVIDIA’s earnings. Jeffrey notes that the international economic landscape, particularly stimulus measures from Japan and China, adds to the uncertainty in domestic markets. He believes that the AI sector is still in its early stages, with significant growth potential ahead.
In the final moments, Remy and Jeffrey examine the performance of various sectors within the S&P 500, including healthcare and energy, and how they are influenced by the Fed’s potential rate cuts. Jeffrey explains the bifurcated nature of the economy, illustrating a K-shaped recovery where some sectors thrive while others continue to struggle.