Welcome to FinTech TV.
I'm Remy Blair.
Well, Wall Street coming off its post-J Jackson Hole rally with Wyoming in the rearview mirror now in September, right around the corner, rate decisions, data tariffs all sharing the spotlight.
Joining me here at the New York Stock Exchange to weigh in is Steve Elaine Lawrence, CIO at Balfour Capital Group.
Steve, great.
You back.
Thank you so much for joining me.
Well, great to be here and very excited to talk about these exciting times that we're seeing right now in the markets.
Yeah, absolutely.
There's a lot going on, so I do want to sit through a lot of the noise and talk about the signal.
So why are markets pulling back from that rally after Jackson Hole?
I'll say this.
The market at this point is a little bit overbought, and I'm expecting it to go down about 2, 3% within the next 30 days.
And what about year to today as we head into the end of the year?
What are the implications of what the Fed does next?
Everything with the Fed to me is already priced into the market, so the real issue at hand is when the market comes off what you buy and how you diversify as an investor, and there's a lot of great companies out there.
Yeah, and speaking of which, there is focus on AI and Nvidia will be coming out with their earnings.
So of course we'll be paying attention to their cap backs as well as their guidance.
But at a time when it's so hard to separate politics from the markets, what do you make of the latest announcements that are coming out from the White House?
Well, Apparently the Trump administration, and I actually like what they're doing, they're going to be taking a position in Lockheed Martin, but they're not a sovereign wealth fund yet.
They've put that off the table, and I think the aggressive nature that they're taking is one that will help the public over the long term.
I think there's some great the government is allowed to make money.
Because if they make money You have less of a deficit and Steve, for Americans, when the government takes a stake in a company, it might be to bail them out when we're talking about the great financial crisis, for example.
But tell us about the implications and the impact.
First of all, with Intel they have non-voting shares, so they're just a shareholder and I believe that you know Howard Lutnick and the Trump administration will also have non-voting shares.
They're investing for the future of America and I believe that a company like Intel over the long term, meaning 3 to 5 years, you could see the stock go to 60, 70, 80% or even higher.
Yes, and in this day and age of digital media, especially social media, we have to pay attention to what's going on because we hear from politicians as well as corporate executives in particular Trump.
So when it comes to Fed independence, what is your take on the role that Trump plays in all of this?
You know, I look at markets and I don't really opine on on politicians or geopolitical events.
I only opine on the potential outcome of what they may do.
So for example, if the US doesn't get their way with China in certain aspects, they're going to do a 200% tariff on magnets on rare earth.
So there's a big play in commodities in general.
There's a big tug of war.
Yeah, but the pattern has been this delay, delay, delay.
Everything's always getting delayed.
Yeah, that goalpost continues to move, right?
We'll keep an eye on what happens when it comes to China and the US, especially with tariffs, but you mentioned commodities, so we're watching the price action of gold.
And of course digital assets as well, but we saw a rise after the Fed Reserve gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming and after Pall spoke as we head into the month of September and year end, what do you expect to see?
OK, like for example, the Bitcoin, which I like.
It, you know, it came off from 125 and change, and the public thinks that's such a large move down to 110.
It really isn't.
If you're going to be in that position for an extended period of time, it's an opportunity to own it here and just.
And buy the asset with an idea of what your risk parameters are.
Yeah, and of course portfolio allocation when we're talking about crypto, so it might be Bitcoin or it could be even ET, which has been getting a lot of focus, especially after hitting record highs.
So when we're talking about investing in crypto, there are so many different ways to do that given that there are funds out there.
But what is your take on how investors should be getting their toes into the space?
I will say this there's so many wonderful ETFs to buy.
If you don't want to go through the whole process of owning a wallet and going through that entire electronic process, there are fabulous ETFs.
They, you know, I invest in crypto versus various ETFs on a much more complex level, but you're also seeing that the crypto is establishing itself as An asset class that has relationships with other assets now, so you can see the crypto versus a 2 year note or a 5 year note.
They're starting to have real market relationships just like WTI and Brent.
They have a have a relationship that's a mature relationship.
The crypto assets, they're establishing new relationships, so you're going to see what's the spread between owning crypto and Nvidia and AMD and 10 ETFs as the market accepts it as a more standard asset class, which it is.
And speaking of asset classes, I do want to round out the discussion by zooming out of the US markets and looking at what's happening around the globe because when we compare what's happening here in the US in terms of equities, of course, we do have year to date gains right now as we head into the labor.
Day weekend.
But when we compare what's happening in equities outside of the US, what's your take on this?
Listen, China's cheap.
The Hang Sengs near its all-time highs, and I believe the Hang Seng will go much higher.
I think it will go to 30,000, not this year, but we should, we should end up the year near the all-time highs.
I mean, I just see a lot of value there.
The economy is starting to really catch ground there.
And they're big savers and that's a fact.
So all the markets like France unfortunately on a day like today, there's a no vote of confidence of the market got hit in France, but you can't compare China.
To a smaller market.
It's really on par with the US globally from a market point of view.
OK, Steve.
Well, we will leave it there for today, but you yourself are heading across the Atlantic and also heading to the Americas.
I look forward to speaking to you when you're back.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Thank you.
Have a great day.
Thank you.
