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Gold and Silver Surge: Insights from Mark Newton on Market Trends

Market Movers: The Opening Bell

September 3, 2025

Video Transcript

In midweek trade, we are looking at mixed trading for the major US stock averages, and this does come as investors balance trade uncertainty and keep an eye on global bonds.

Now gold is reaching new all-time highs yet again.

Silver has soared to levels and is eyeing record highs and levels not seen since 2011, and this does. amidst the backdrop of a US currency as well as Treasury yields, and the rally is powered by expectations the Fed will cut interest rates.

And as we head into a month packed with us, September tends to be a historically rough month for Wall Street.

Well joining me without further ado is Mark Newton, managing director and global head of technical strategy.

Fundstra Global Advisors.

Well, Mark, welcome back to the New York Stock Exchange.

Thank you for joining me.

Thank you, Remy.

Great to be here.

Well, the countdown is on to the Fed meeting, only 2 weeks to go until September 17th, but a lot is happening right now.

So let's start off by looking at gold first and foremost.

So we are looking at gold above 3600.

So what do you make of this price action?

It's tremendously bullish to see gold break out of this pattern, which has been really keeping gold range bound for the last 4.5, 5 months.

So.

Look, we're in a period where we have about an 88% chance of hiking this month.

We have about 4 cuts built into the curve between now and next summer, dovish fed, but yet some weaker data overall in the labor market and ISM.

So in general that's actually very, very good for gold, and we also have, you know, lots of concerns about the fiscal situation.

Not only here but globally.

So great environment for the metals, both gold and silver making very strong moves.

Silver is stronger than gold since April, surprisingly enough, but I like both the metals to continue up over the next month.

The Gold should hit at 3800.

Silver probably gets to the mid-40s before backing off of it.

Yeah, and Mark, you bring up an important point because when we take a look at the year to date gains for gold, it's around 30% versus silver, which is at that 39% level edging closer to about 40% year to date.

But zooming out and looking at the factors that tend to affect gold and silver, what are you looking at here because we have a lot of data, don't we?

Yeah, we certainly do.

Look, a lot of this revolves around real rates starting to drop pretty sharply, and there really hasn't been the inflation that many people keep discussing, you know, and if anything, there are a lot of offsetting factors, and so with the Fed set to cut potentially 4 times, you know, it's a great environment for the metals.

I mean, silver being an industrial metal more so than a precious metal, but obviously a lot of demand for China, which imports more silver ore than any other country in the world.

So as China really starts to rebound.

Uh, it makes a great case for why one would want to own silver.

Yeah, and you mentioned China, so there's a lot happening across the globe when we're talking about geopolitics, but without getting into that, of course, we're keeping an eye on the major stock averages and year to date gains, but when it comes to the divergence, especially within tech, what are you seeing and what do you make of this?

It's pretty remarkable.

In the last month we've seen about 10% gains in Apple, whereas most of the tech software group has really been hard hit.

So a lot of the former leaders like Salesforce.com, for example, just are a shell of what they used to be.

So it's really interesting to see technology underperform to the extent that it has.

I think that is something for investors to keep an eye on over the next couple of months.

I mean this morning we're seeing great movement out of Alphabet, of course, and Apple on the news, this antitrust ruling, so that's hopefully can. tech back to new highs, but in general, look, it's promising the fact that we've seen other sectors outside of tech come to the rescue like financials like consumer discussionary.

The consumer seems to be back, but there's also some bifurcation within retail as well.

So I'm very encouraged the fact that breadth and momentum have expanded in the month of August at a time when many were concerned that things had started to slump going into the fall. and people remain on the sidelines.

I mean, data from both the retail and also the institutional lens suggests that.

Uh, you know, people are very guarded.

They're expecting a correction and so it's not going to be as easy as people think.

So you know we are in a historical period where September's down.

My thinking is October is probably a little bit more likely month for a pullback, 3 to 5%.

But if people stay this this concerned and guarded, I'm just not sure that we're going to get all that much just yet.

So I'm quite bullish between now and end of year, the next 4 months.

I do think we get up above 6650, potentially up to 7000, but The dips should be viable.

We have a dovish Fed.

We've got a great earnings season.

The economy is to some extent resilient.

There's some weakness on the fringes, but that's actually good because we have all these cuts built into the curve.

So it's going to be a very, very good time for investors still this year.

Yeah, and speaking of curve, while you're here, I have to ask you about what we're seeing in bonds, not just here in the US, but obviously overseas. in Europe as well.

So why did we see that price action yesterday and what does this mean going forward, not just on the long end but also the short?

Yeah, that's tricky.

I think a lot of the algos kicked in because in the month of September historically has been sort of negative for Treasury.

We also saw comments from the ECB Schnabel who said basically that you know they're very cautious about, you know, potentially cutting rates further, so we saw an immediate jump.

Not only in German bond yields but also French yields.

UK gilt yields rose to the highest since 1998.

So you know it's not uncommon that the US yields will actually follow or also rise when that happens.

My thinking is that the treasury market is in great shape in the US.

People have been talking tariffs, but honestly, treasuries are down.

Treasury yields are down about 30 basis points in the last couple of months, so we're nowhere near.

Uh, you know, yearly highs in US treasuries.

I think yields are going to continue to fall, which means the data probably gets a little bit weaker over the next few weeks.

Potentially jobs number we shall see, but ISM certainly has been weak.

Labor market seems to be gradually starting to weaken.

People are stopping hiring.

They're not laying off in droves, but I think yields are pointed lower.

I think the dollar goes back lower.

We've heard signs that of course, you know, the BOJ is set to hike rates next month.

We should start to see upward acceleration in the yen.

Which in dollar yen do should fall.

So I think dollar and yields both pull back.

That's great for risk assets in general.

So I like emerging markets.

I also like equities.

I'm very cognizant that we're in a very seasonally tough time, but we haven't seen any technical weakness.

Trends have been intact until that happens, it's going to be right to stick with the trend, but I sense it is coming, but I just don't have much technically that speaks to markets selling off outside of technology being a little bit weaker than normal.

And Mark, last but not least, we have less than 60 seconds here, but since you mentioned Global Central Bank, in terms of rate differentials, what does this mean?

Well, look, I think in general the US is in much better shape than the rest of the world.

I think it's going to be, uh, you know, the fact that the US might start to cut, whereas the globally, you know, we haven't started cutting yet where they are cutting of course overseas.

There should be downward pressure on the dollar and also on treasury yields.

It is important to study interest rate differentials and what that, what the implication is there, um.

Who knows if the dollar continues to fall.

My thinking is we probably fall into October.

We have a bounce into next year, but there's been a lot of downward pressure.

I just, I'm not sure if I buy into the whole sell US theme, but the dollar has a lot of downward pressure and and honestly, the administration wants the dollar to pull.

Back in the short run, I think and also yields.

So I think there is going to be further downward pressure on the dollar for good reason.

Well, Mark, always great to have you here.

There's a lot of anticipation as we head into the final months of 2025.

So as always, appreciate your time.

Thank you very much.

“It’s tremendously bullish to see gold break out of this pattern, which has been really keeping gold range bound for the last four and a half, five months.” – 01:13

Mark Newton, Managing Director of Fundstrat Global Advisors, joins Remy Blaire at the New York Stock Exchange to discuss to discuss the current state of the U.S. stock market and the broader economic landscape. As they dive into midweek trading, they observe mixed results among major U.S. stock averages, influenced by ongoing trade uncertainties and global bond movements.

Remy highlights the significant surge in gold prices, which have reached new all-time highs, while silver also shows impressive gains. Mark explains that this bullish trend is largely driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, alongside concerns about the fiscal situation both domestically and globally. He notes that gold has broken out of a range-bound pattern that has persisted for several months, projecting that gold could hit $3,800 and silver could reach the mid-40s.

The discussion shifts to year-to-date performance, with gold up approximately 30% and silver nearing 40%. Mark emphasizes the importance of real interest rates and the lack of significant inflation as key factors influencing these precious metals. He also discusses the industrial demand for silver, particularly from China, which imports more silver ore than any other country.

As they analyze the technology sector, Remy and Mark observe a divergence in performance, with Apple showing impressive gains while other tech stocks, like Salesforce, have struggled. Mark points out that this trend is noteworthy and suggests that investors should remain vigilant. Despite some concerns about a potential market correction, he expresses optimism about the overall market trajectory, especially as they approach a historically challenging month for Wall Street in October.

The conversation also touches on the bond market, where recent price action has been influenced by comments from the European Central Bank and historical trends in September. Mark believes that U.S. Treasury yields are likely to continue falling, which could signal a weakening economy in the coming weeks. He discusses the implications of global central bank policies and the potential downward pressure on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.

In the closing moments of the segment, Remy and Mark reflect on the importance of understanding interest rate differentials and their impact on the dollar. Mark concludes with a cautious yet optimistic outlook, suggesting that while there may be challenges ahead, the current trends remain intact, and there are opportunities for investors.

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