Peter Tuchman, Senior Floor Trader at TradeMas, joins Remy Blaire to discuss the latest developments on Wall Street, which recently hit new highs following a strong June jobs report. Peter shares his insights on the market’s focus on tariffs and how geopolitical events have influenced trading patterns. Peter emphasizes the importance of monitoring the tariff situation, particularly how aggressive the administration may be in its negotiations.
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Let's get to the big story breakdown.
Wall Street hit new highs last week after a strong June jobs report.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record levels again, while the Dow jumped 350 points just short of its first new high since December.
Now Trump says he signed take it or leave it letters to 12 countries detailing new tariff rates on exports to the US with offers set to go out today.
Well, as we return from holiday weekend, I'm joined by Peter.
Senior floor trader at Tradeos.
Well, Peter, welcome back.
Good morning.
How are you?
My pleasure.
Well, here we are.
We saw new record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq this week, but there's still a lot of uncertainty when it comes to tariffs.
So what are you watching this week?
Well, I realize that we our whole focus was on tariffs for the longest time, right?
We saw it take us up.
We saw it take us down and back up right as we went from February 19th down into the bowels of April and then back up.
We got diverted because of what was going on in the Middle East and that sort of took us away from our focus, which was tariffs, right?
The market sort of took advantage of that sort of dislocation of our hyper focus that had been on tariffs to basically lift the market up to record highs, which once again we had last week.
Nasdaq hit record highs.
We had 5 days in the Nasdaq which were in positive territory.
The S&P, you always ask me about levels hitting 6300 on the S&P, 45,000 on the Dow is extraordinary.
Taking into account all the potential unknowns that are still on the table, but I did mention last week when we spoke that eventually once all of this settles down we are going to go back to the tariff story and it's going to be a matter of where does Mr.
Trump go with this?
Is he going to come out of the gate in a very aggressive bullying fashion, which he often can be?
We know no disrespect to the big chief, but you know he can go that way.
And so it seems like that's where we're going.
He's writing out these letters.
We're sort of regrouping. on what went on with with Independence Day, we're sort of calling out the big, the big countries and we're going, look, if you're going to play in the BRIS camp, then we don't want to do business with you.
Besson's commentary about the fact that if we don't make deals, we're going to revert to those numbers that we saw.
Obviously those are undealable numbers.
185, 145% is going to take everything to make it completely unaffordable.
So it's important that we sort of meander and curate the way we look at.
The market and the way we look at economy and tariffs in a super positive way.
Yeah, and Peter, we were here on Thursday ahead of the holiday weekend digesting that jobs report, which came in better than expected.
So given that we have a clear indication of the labor market, at least for now, we know that the economy is not the stock market.
The stock market is not the economy.
So what are some of the risks as we head into the summer months?
Obviously I mean the risks are all in the tariffs.
It really is a matter of who he.
Decides to play in the pond with and who he tends to get aggressive with and I think, you know, look, we have a deal with Vietnam.
We're hoping we have a deal with China.
We've got the EU and the UK that are sort of waiting for that looming day, you know, that was July 9th for a while, it was July 7th for a while.
I think we need to, you know, look, Lutnick and Bessen are talking about deal, deal, deal, done, done, done.
There's been a lot of backdoor diplomacy while we've been focused on the Middle East.
If that's done and these are positive deals, then we should we should be.
Going in the right direction and things will be good.
I think we're going to have a couple of those, you know, pebble in your shoes stumble, stumble on the road type of situations along the way to get there.
I'm just hoping, I think we take it a day at a time.
The fact that we're off a little bit this morning is inconsequential because literally 2 days ago we were trading at record highs.
There should be fresh money coming in.
My gut is we'll open a little bit down and rally up until the end of the day.
That's what we've been doing.
And so let's stay positive.
I think things are going to be good.
Yeah, and Peter, just because we're in the summer months does not mean we're going to see quiet trading.
You and I were here at the beginning of last August and we saw that sell off on August and given everything that's happening in the world, whether it's politics or geopolitics, and of course on Wall Street, there's a lot to consider.
So as we head into the second half for viewers out there who may have been on vacation and not paying attention to what's happening, what is on your radar?
Well, I think we're going to be, as I said, we've got to Tariff thing, but we also have the Federal Reserve, right?
We've got the economic things that are happening.
We've seen economic data come in that's been super strong, even though the tariffs sort of loomed over the inability for the companies to give guidance on what was going on.
We came out last quarter with some of the most solid earnings that we've seen for a while.
If that's sustainable, then we're in good shape.
The lifeblood of the market is the earnings.
Then we're going to look at the Federal Reserve and how they're able to navigate interest rate cuts if we Get 1 and we get 2 coming into the 3rd quarter, I think that will be positive.
You know, we talked about it low growth, slow growth environment will cause stagflation if we start to cut interest rates, but if we head in the right direction, we stay, if we divert as opposed to the higher tariff number and we go towards the lower one, then I think we're in the in the right, we're going in the right direction.
If we do a little bit of interest rate cutting as we do that, then I think we're doing it the right way.
Yeah, and Peter, finally, before I let you go this week, we will be getting 5 minutes out from the latest meeting, and you mentioned earnings.
So last earnings season we didn't hear in terms of some companies from different sectors about guidance outlook moving forward.
Now, given this uncertainty that continues over tariffs, do you think we'll be hearing more regarding the outlook for certain sectors?
You know what, I think a legitimate answer to that is I don't know.
You know, we don't have anything.
Stone yet we're going to need real numbers before we can give guidance.
That's the whole nature of guidance.
Earnings are what happened last week.
Guidance is what happens next week.
And unless we know the cost of goods sold and what's going on as far as our costs go, we're not going to be able to.
You saw General Motors, Ford, some of the largest companies in the world with a complete inability, and JPMorgan last time we saw JPMorgan not able to give guidance was during COVID.
We do not want to see that interruption of the supply chain.
We do not.
To see any of that, you know, anxiety that we saw back then.
Let's hope that we end up going in the right direction as far as that goes.
Let's head to 6400, 6500.
I met with Dan Ives last week.
He's looking at he's manifesting a 7 in front of the S&P 500.
If that's the case, we're all in good shape.
OK, Peter, thank you so much for joining me here.
I'll see you on Friday and hopefully we can manifest Dan Ives here.
That's right.
We're going to work on that this week.
Happy training everybody.