Bitcoin Slides 50 Percent as Macro Deleveraging Hits Digital Assets

Remy: Bitcoin and the broader digital asset space just weather their steepest weekly retreat in over three years, leaving even the most hardened and permeable scrambling for a narrative. Now, it is a stark reversal from the Trump trade euphoria that defined the last year. We saw record highs and a sense of institutional permanence on Wall Street. Now the scarcity argument is being tested between the rise of competing risk on assets like AI and gold, and the likelihood of a Kevin Warsh led Fed. The legislative tailwinds have suddenly turned. Well, joining me here at the New York Stock Exchange to weigh in is Sam Callahan, director of Bitcoin strategy and research at OranjeBTC, the largest Bitcoin treasury in Latin America. Sam, great to have you here. Thank you so much for joining me.

Sam: Thanks for having me.

Remy: Well, it's been quite the start to 2026. So first and foremost when we look at Bitcoin what do you make of the price action we've seen so far. And where are we?

Sam: Well I think it's pretty par for the course for bitcoin. I mean Bitcoin is a volatile asset. It trades about 45% annualized volatility. So we're down about 45-50% from the all time highs. So this is pretty normal in terms of Bitcoin's price action. I think what's really happening is we had a lot of volatility not just in Bitcoin but in precious metals - Silver, the Japanese bond market. And so you have these multi strategy hedge funds that were maybe leveraged across assets. And then when silver goes down. Bitcoin is a highly liquid asset. Trades 24/7, 365. If there's some kind of margin call elsewhere in these hedge funds book, they're going to have to sell something. And Bitcoin usually suffers in those environments. So Bitcoin is still viewed as like a risk on asset. And that's changing over time. People like BlackRock are saying hey this is this is an asset that protects you against currency debasement and uncertainty. But that's still kind of getting sussed out by the market. It's still kind of digesting that as Bitcoin is a safe haven asset. So right now it's still a risk on asset. But I think that's going to change over time.

Remy: Yeah. And you bring up an important point because when we're looking at the selloff that we saw on February 6th for the crypto market. There are a lot of moving parts, and it's not just the crypto market, it's also other asset classes, including the equity markets as well as commodities where we're seeing these massive moves. So for viewers out there who are trying to make sense of what we saw in the beginning of February as well as the beginning of October, what would you say to them? And if you do believe in the four year cycle, where are we?

Sam: Well, the four year cycle is related to Bitcoin's having events that happened roughly every four years. You know, I'm one of those Bitcoiners who feel like liquidity is mostly that drives Bitcoin. It's actually not the halving cycle. And so right now what we're seeing in the broader macro environment is we're seeing the central banks cut rates. We're seeing talk of shrinking balance sheet. But the fact is that the balance sheet is expanding at the central bank. so liquidity conditions are likely to improve here. But over the last in October as well as February, what we saw is like deleveraging across this asset class. When you have leverage with a highly volatile asset that creates risk. And so you can have these moments where the floor could seemingly drop out. But every single time that happens, you have convicted holders that come in who have been studying this asset, who see this as an opportunity.

They they like it. At 126. They should really love it. Now Bitcoin is on clearance because nothing's actually changed fundamentally with the asset and nothing's changed with the value proposition Given the risks of currency debasement and more uncertainty in the global monetary system.

Remy: Yeah. And speaking of which, I understand that you're in the Latin America market, in particular Sao Paulo. So when we think about Latin America, we know that there is hyperinflation as well as currency chaos. And here in the US, when we're talking about inflation, we're just talking about single digit increases, but not necessarily the case down south. So give us an idea of your perspective when it comes to macro.

Sam: Well, there's a you know, in Latin America they have a lot of instability in their currency as well as their financial system broadly. You know, they We at OranjeBTC were trying to drive bitcoin adoption in a region that needs it most, given that instability. Now from a macro standpoint, Brazil specifically, I think emerging markets are a really interesting place to be right now because Trump and Bessent have communicated to the market they want a weaker dollar, and it's about their policy goals to reassure the industrial base, make our export economy more competitive. That's really beneficial for emerging market economies like Brazil. And so I expect Brazil. You've already seen a lot of flows kind of come into Brazil. Brazilian equities, which are very cheap right now from a valuation standpoint. And so I think Brazil specifically has really interesting characteristics when it comes to the broader macro in a persistent inflationary environment, in an environment where natural resources and raw materials are being repriced higher. Brazil has the second largest rare earth reserves in the world. And so when you talk about these bigger policy goals for the Trump administration, Brazil's kind of sitting there right in their backyard. And I think you're going to see improved trade relations and you're going to see beneficial Benefits from the market in that in that region.

Remy: Yeah. And Sam, very quickly before I let you go. You're here in New York City for Bitcoin Investor Week. A lot of conversations taking place there. So give us your take on the vibe on the ground. And of course I want to ask you about DATs.

Sam: Yeah. The vibe on the ground at the Bitcoin Investor Week is pretty constructive. I mean, this is the it's more of an institutional event with a lot of builders. And we've seen this before. I mean, in the past - in 2018, 2022, Bitcoin dropped 75-80% from its all time high. Like right now we're at 50%. So this is really par for the course. The builders continue to build. We haven't lost conviction in this asset. It's still a decentralized hard asset that's digital in nature that we think improves on gold, is better technology than gold. And so there's no change to the macro picture in terms of the unsustainability of the fiscal picture, the risks of currency debasement. And so we're still building and the environment is is just basically the same as it was when it was at 126. I mean, we're we're long term thinkers. And Bitcoin is a long duration asset.

Remy: And less than 60s here. So tell me about DATs. What is the future?

Sam: I think the future as you see differentiation between these digital asset companies. You know, and there's different ways to do that. It's the asset you hold. We hold only Bitcoin. We think Bitcoin is the best way to store your wealth over long periods of time. And then you're going to see differentiation in terms of the capital structure of these different businesses, what operational lines of business they go into. You know, one thing I'll say is there's a lot of worry about Strategy, which is the largest DAT. Strategy has proven even in these market conditions, they've never sold Bitcoin like people were worried about. There's no risk, you know, to their balance sheet for a very long time because they were very conservative and they continue to accumulate Bitcoin you know and they still trade at a premium. So I think this should show people the resiliency of this business model. They still are executing. And you know they're they're talking the talk. And so people are worried but they're still executing. They're still accumulating Bitcoin.

Remy: Well Sam we will have to leave it there. But thank you so much for joining me.

Sam: Thank you Remy