Bitcoin, AI & Stablecoins: Q1 2026 Crypto Outlook with Silicon Valley Bank

Well, as we wrap up Q1, the macro story is shifting from speculation to execution, and while retail capital has rotated into AI as well as precious metals, Bitcoin has quietly matured into a core treasury asset.

Now, according to new data, it does show a record number of public companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, while long-term conviction has hit an all-time high.

But we are also seeing a powerful. new alliance formed between AI agents and programmable payments rewiring the plumbing of global commerce.

Well joining me live is Anthony Vasallo, head of crypto for Silicon Valley Bank.

Anthony, great to have you back.

Thank you so much for joining me.

Good morning.

Well, we have seen a lot of movement when it comes to all asset classes in Q1 2026.

So what do you make of what we're seeing in digital assets, in particular Bitcoin?

Yeah, Bitcoin in many ways, there's still a lot of conviction around it both in terms of building and long term holders, but the cycle seemed to have been a bit underwhelming.

We didn't even get a double from the prior all-time high.

And there's been since a 50% retracement off the top.

And as you mentioned, a lot of competition for capital with the AI trade and precious metals, as well as a lot of individuals who have been holding for a long time now, exiting the position, trying to upgrade their lifestyles.

But a lot of people that I know as well. are accumulating at these levels, and I think what's more important is what's being built around Bitcoin to leverage the power of the network, make it more usable and reduce risk around counterparty risk, using it as collateral for lending, settlement risk with just the promise of crypto as a payment.

And making it more of a medium of exchange and leveraging the network for payments, not necessarily on the core network, but adjacent to it on things like the Lightning network.

Yeah, and you bring up a lot of important points.

We're here at Digital Summit 2026, and a lot of us are paying attention to innovation as well as trends in digital assets.

Including institutional adoption, but you brought up artificial intelligence.

AI is something that we're all watching, especially when it comes to finance and commerce.

So how do you see this intersection of digital assets and AI evolving?

It's arguably the most important convergence across crypto.

Last year.

We observed that 40% of every crypto VC dollar went to a crypto company either building an AI project or one doing decentralized AI.

And if you think about why, I think it's important to consider what each technology does.

So, blockchain helps verify the outputs of AI and AI helps simplify the complexities of crypto.

So, on the AI side today, while we're all familiar with using centralized models, they might be censored, you might not want to give personal identifying information.

And the incentives of crypto, for example, can make it more comprehensive answers, competition for more complete information as well, and distributing that intelligence across multiple nodes on a network.

So the VCs are definitely investing their capital there, and it's also a lot easier to raise when you have an AI reference in your pitch deck.

Yeah, and you bring up an important point when it comes to what we're seeing in terms of infrastructure as well as core plumbing.

So you mentioned Lightning Network.

For the layperson out there who's watching right now, tell us about the importance of the network.

Yeah, so Bitcoin Network is the oldest and most durable blockchain, but it's not exactly the most efficient in using it as a medium of exchange.

It's Bitcoin itself.

The asset is.

Best as a store of value, especially at this scale right now.

So, the Lightning Network is a peer to peer payment channel that allows individuals to leverage the power of the network and settle nearly immediately in a peer to peer mechanism.

Um, the promise of that, for example, is you can issue staple coins on Lightning.

The CEO of Tether has been very vocal about that as well.

And a lot of our clients are building around lightning to either just move value more quickly rather than being limited by some of the intentional design benefits of the first layer of Bitcoin.

So, voltage, for example, one of our clients has an API first model that removes a lot of the complexities for enterprise transacting and allowing them to operate a lightning node.

So it lightning at its core really helps.

Leverage the Bitcoin network for payments without necessarily using BTC as the asset that is transacting.

Yeah, and Anthony, finally, before I let you go, you mentioned stablecoin, so I understand you have a thesis when it comes to stablecoins as well as Bitcoin for emerging markets.

So finally, tell us all about this.

Yeah, there's, I think there's some very interesting things to watch.

So if you think about emerging markets, Being subject to the volatility of a local currency and not necessarily having access to the banking system, to now have a superior payment rail and access to a digital dollar is really fantastic.

At the same time, I think something worth watching in the months and years ahead is how those local governments embrace the technology, but also how they encourage the use of their own currency as well, because It really embraces the strength and the demand for the dollar.

So I think we're going to see stablecoin adoption continue, especially in the use of agentic finance and in the use of treasuries, but even for mom and pops in local economies.

So I think the question is, if you are, let's say, another G50 country and your local entrepreneurs are transacting in dollar denominated stablecoins.

What's the plan to make sure that you still have a robust currency yourself?

And I think given the geopolitical situations that we have seen in different regions across the world just in 2026 alone, that does speak to that.

So I really appreciate your time, Anthony.

Thank you so much for joining us at Digital Asset Summit.

And as always, thank you so much for your insights and perspective.

Thank you.

Thank you.