Tim Anderson, Managing Director at TJM Investments joins Remy Blaire at the New York Stock Exchange to discuss the current state of the markets following the latest inflation data. Tim breaks down how Wall Street opened lower, yet bond investors were optimistic due to a consumer price report that alleviated fears surrounding Trump’s tariffs.
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While Wall Street opening lower in New York morning trade, but bond investors cheering the latest read on inflation, government bonds rallying after the new consumer price report showed data that defied fears that Trump's tariffs would drive up prices.
Now at the same time, we also got producer prices, which were also benign.
Joining me this morning to weigh in on the latest data is.
Anderson, managing director at TJM Investments.
So good morning, Tim.
Thank you so much for joining me.
It's nice to be with you this morning.
Well, first and foremost, when we look at the S&P 500, we're holding above that 6000 level and as you mentioned before the show, less than 2% away from all-time highs.
So first and foremost, give us your take on what we're seeing when it comes to equities.
Well, clearly we've had a very strong rebound off the lows in early April that were part of the A big tariff tantrum sell off.
I think that very few participants were expecting such a sharp V rally recovery in the markets, but that's clearly what we've seen.
And now we're right where we were very close to where we were in mid-February when we made new highs.
I think the S&P high is 6114.
We're at like 100 points.
Less than that right now and with oil having a little bit better week than it's had in 6 weeks or so, that has helped the S&P a fair amount this week and clearly technology and AI stocks have gotten out of this downdraft that they were in.
That both from tariff fears and from worries that the big power center build out was just hyped a little bit out of control.
A lot of those power generation companies have recovered very nicely.
And that is still very much uh uh something that's going to be happening.
It's just not going to be happening in one or two quarters.
That's a build out that takes time, but it still does involve a lot of jobs and site preparation.
So where a lot of the naysayers would say, well, you know, it takes a long time to build those factories and they're not going to be online for a few years.
That may be correct, but it takes a long time to site prep and for the factories to be built.
And there's going to be a lot of jobs involved in that.
So, you know, the I think the I think both the economy and the market are on very solid ground.
We've seen a very healthy.
IPO activity in the market this week, but still nowhere near what you would consider to be bubble and you bring up a lot of important points because we have been seeing IPOs here at the New York Stock Exchange as well as the other exchange across town as well, but I do want to get your take on what we're seeing in bonds so we The 10 year auction yesterday and we have a 30 year auction later today and usually bond auctions don't really get a lot of attention but we are looking at the 10 year hovering around the 4.36 level and this does come on the heels of the latest US inflation figures.
You and I, we were talking about the Fed meeting next week as well as other key events that are coming up down the pike, so.
Do you make of where we are right now for bonds?
Well, you know, clearly when the 30 year got up above 5%, that set off a few alarm signals in the market, maybe a few, you know, warning signs, and for the 10 year you were talking about, you know, 4.5, 4.55 is maybe the high water mark recently, we're down.
A healthy amount from there, but we still have a very nice looking upward sloping yield curve which historically is a sign of a of a growing economy.
Um, so with the 30 year maybe at about 4.8% and with the, you know, the 10 year 4.35, the 2 to 3 year, just a little bit over 4, those are healthy signs and and and and even.
But out of whack with where the Fed is and although I doubt that they're going to cut rates next week, I think that they should, they've got to start signaling that inflation is for all practical purposes right at their 2% target.
And that rate cuts are likely in the fall.
Well, Tim, we will see what the Fed says next week and we also get the summary of economic projections.
So thank you so much for joining me on this Thursday morning.
Yes, it's great to be with you.