Remy Blaire is joined by Luke Lloyd, the President and CEO of Lloyd Financial Group, to discuss the current state of the equity markets as they approach the end of 2025. The conversation begins with Remy highlighting that November’s price action has fallen short of expectations, with Bitcoin erasing all its year-to-date gains and the S&P 500 remaining in the red for the month. However, there is renewed optimism in the market as stocks rise alongside increasing odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Luke reflects on the market’s recent volatility, attributing it to two main factors: the government shutdown and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. He notes that the current government shutdown is projected to have a more significant negative impact on GDP compared to previous shutdowns, which historically correlates with downturns in the stock market. Despite these challenges, Luke expresses a bullish outlook for the upcoming holiday shopping season, especially with the potential for liquidity to return to the market.
As they discuss consumer behavior leading into Black Friday and Cyber Monday, Remy and Luke turn their attention to the Fed’s rate cut expectations. Luke confidently predicts a 25 basis point cut in December, suggesting that the economy remains strong despite some contraction in GDP. He anticipates that there could be two or three additional rate cuts in the following year, which would benefit higher beta stocks.
The conversation also delves into the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin, which has seen a significant decline from its record highs in October. Luke shares his personal trading history with Bitcoin, expressing a desire to buy the dip if prices fall below $70. He likens Bitcoin to a high beta stock, suggesting that if the broader market rebounds, Bitcoin could potentially reach $100,000 by December. Luke reiterates his long-term bullish stance on Bitcoin, predicting that it could eventually reach a million dollars per coin within the next decade.