Bitcoin is testing critical resistance levels as it rallies off its early February highs, but can this momentum hold while prices briefly topped $76,000 on Tuesday, supported by a weaker US currency and a temporary easing in the U.S.Iran conflict.
And on chain data does show hourly exchange inflows spiking to 11,000 Bitcoin, the highest level since late 2025.
While beneath the surface, institutional investors are returning in force with positive.
ETFlows as well as new offerings from Wall Street heavyweights.
Joining me to weigh in is Ray Salmond, Head of Markets at Cointelegraph.
Good morning.
Thank you so much for joining us.
So we've been seeing a lot of volatility in Bitcoin in the short term.
So with exchange influences hitting their highest level since late 2025.
What do you make of the surge in deposits?
Do you think it's purely short term profit taking, or do you think it's a sign of broader exhaustion?
I actually think that there's a paradigm shift that's taking place.
What's clear is that Bitcoin is rapidly becoming a Wall Street asset.
So when you have firms like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs launching new products, it proves that the institutional adoption is no longer theoretical, that it's actually happening.
So the clearest evidence of this comes from flows into the Bitcoin ETFs.
In April alone, uh, ETF flows have. surged above 800 million, I believe.
And earlier this week, year to date flows finally turned positive for the first time this year.
So, we can see that large institutions are accumulating directly.
And, um, in the last seven days, BlackRock added more than 10,000 Bitcoin to its IBT ETF and strategy has added about 14,000.
So, um, through, through, through, through its like. financing vehicle.
So, I think what we see is institutional demand picking up again.
Um, the charts that you just showed are actually showing data from, uh, centralized exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, where we've also seen an imbalance, um, in order book flow or in the bid ask ratio there.
So, um, it, it shows that there's clear positioning also in spot markets as investors return to this market.
And as you mentioned, the institutional money is definitely back, and we are seeing new products, as you mentioned, from Morgan Stanley Goldman as well as strategies.
So with all of this institutional firepower entering the space, why is Bitcoin still struggling to break out?
Hm.
That's a good question.
Yeah, that's a, that's a really good question.
I, I would say we're trading at range highs right now.
So, the $750,000 to $76,000 range, we haven't seen those highs in nearly two months.
Um, after that huge washout that we had in February, following the huge washout that we had in October, it takes time for the market to Kind of reset itself for, uh, for prices to consolidate, for for investor sentiment to rebuild, uh, and to see that manifested in actual flows, like the inflows to, uh, centralized exchanges, the inflows into the spot ETFs.
So, um, I, I, I think that you kind of have a, um, You, you have a convergence of many different events that are crypto-specific, also regulatory related to the Clarity Act, um, also related to, um, Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh possibly being nominated soon, and he's a crypto advocate, uh, and also Bitcoin's asymmetrical response to the war in Iran.
So, you know, it's, as I was saying earlier, there's kind of like a paradigm shift in sentiment and also in flow.
So us trading at 75,000 right now is a huge positive considering that two months ago we were under 60.
And I do want to get your take on the macro picture as well because you mentioned a lot of fundamentals as well as those geopolitics that we're monitoring US CPI as well as PPI inflation is back in the picture as well, but it does complicate the outlook for Fed rate cuts just given this uncertainty, at least for now regarding the Middle East conflict.
So how is the crypto market actually pricing in this shifting inflation narrative.
There's multiple narratives, some that drive crypto and some that drive equity.
Sometimes they converge and work together.
Sometimes they are completely opposed to each other, and we see the SPX and the Dow rising to new highs while Bitcoin is sideways.
So, in this case, I think a lot of investors see Bitcoin as a hedge against monetary instability.
And when markets start pricing in inflation, debt expansion, the potential for Rate cuts in the future, Bitcoin tends to benefit from that environment.
Um, that said, I'd say we're still seeing this interesting dynamic where macroeconomic uncertainty and strong markets are happening at the same time, right?
So, um, and that's amid like these, these, uh, difficult geopolitical times.
So, uh, especially in the energy market.
So, uh, we've seen the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high.
At the same time, Bitcoins rose to 76,000.
Um, so, yeah, I, I, going back to what I said earlier, I, I, I think that Bitcoin investors believe that, um, economic stress will eventually lead to easier monetary conditions, um, loose monetary policy, and rate cuts, and historically, those are beneficial to Bitcoin.
It's the timing that we need to get down.
It's the timing that a lot of investors mess up, and, uh, especially the leveraged ones, that's where they tend to get blown up.
Yes, and Ray, you mentioned the word policy there in reference to monetary policy, but I do want to turn our focus on over to the nation's capital in Washington DC, so all of us are watching the progress of Clarity Act closely.
So tell us how critical legislative certainty is in terms of unlocking the next wave of institutional capital and what is your timeline right now for meaningful regulatory progress.
There's been a sentiment shift there also.
So if you recall not too long ago, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong was kind of throwing a fit about uh.
What's the, what's it gonna be on stablecoin interest?
Are centralized exchanges going to be able to pay, um, stablecoin holders interest on, uh, their account holdings and the banks and the regulators and the crypto businesses we're going back and forth about that.
Apparently, that's not the case anymore.
Uh, according to reporting from Crypto in America founder Eleanor Trrant, lawmakers are making progress on the Clarity Act, uh.
The timeline for it coming out of committee, out of the Senate Banking Committee, and having its markup may be delayed because on Tuesday, nominee Kevin Warsh is meant to have his hearings, but Terrett said that the issues of like DFI stablecoin yield between banks and, you know, crypto native companies have kind of been ironed out and they've reached some sort of understanding.
And that the issue that may cause a hang up going forward is actually ethics.
So there's a lot of senators that are very concerned about, you know, the Trump administration's kind of proxy interest, business interests in crypto.
Most recently, what happened with the World Liberty Pi scandal, which I'm sure you're familiar with.
So it's possible that concerns about About, you know, what sort of ethics protections can we put in or write into the Clarity Act, uh, to prevent scams and scandalous behavior and crypto, and protect the consumer.
There may be some hang up there, but, uh, the timeline from what I'm hearing is, um, either by the end of April or possibly at latest, uh, the middle of May.
Well, Ray, a lot to keep our eyes on as we make our way through the 2nd quarter of this year.
So Ray, as always, great talking to you.
Thank you so much for joining us today and thank you so much for all of your insights.
Thank you.
