Iran war marking its 6th week as a glimmer of hope for the markets as we head into another volatile week.
There are reports that the US and Israeli sources are tracking discussions for a 45 day ceasefire.
The goal is a permanent resolution to the conflict, but with the deadline looming on Tuesday evening, all eyes are on the likelihood of a breakthrough versus a devastating escalation.
Now Trump is issuing a. increasing threats against Iran following a high stakes military rescue, and this comes after US forces successfully extracted an American airman who was trapped for more than a day after his fighter jet was shot down.
Trump warned he will start destroying Iran's power plants on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Russia is preparing to send a second oil tanker to Cuba directly testing the US energy blockade on the island.
Meanwhile, all eyes.
On Washington DC this week as NO chief Mark will be visiting the White House.
Joining me this morning is Patrick L.
Young, Chairman and founder of Exchange Invest.
Patrick, good morning.
Thank you so much for joining me.
A lot going on.
So the US Iran were marking week 6.
So tell me what you make of the latest developments and you expect to actually see some breakthrough when it comes to ceasefire.
OK, so it looks as if we'll probably get an orthodox ceasefire in the Ukraine war perhaps as it's going to be Orthodox Easter this weekend.
What's going to happen in Iran?
Well, it's very difficult.
Every day the Iranians seem to be degraded.
The Americans are coming off.
We know now what we're going to be watching on Netflix come Christmas 27, if not Christmas 26, which is going to be the rescue of those amazing airmen and that heroic.
And ultimately I mean Iran is still stuck.
It can blockade the Straits of Hormuz, but it's gradually going to keep losing personnel every day because they're being defenestrateted hour by hour.
This is now turned into a war of attrition, which is quite a shock, but nonetheless, the US still has the whip hand because it has the armaments and Iran is running out of munition.
Well Patrick, I do want to get your take on alliances here, in particular NATO.
We know that Trump has criticized the alliance going back to his first term, and he was also frustrated with the backing of Greenland a few months ago.
Meanwhile, Mark Rutte is on his way to DC this week.
So what are your expectations for that meeting?
I think full and frank discussion is going to be the order of the day.
We know Mark Rutte has already rolled over on Greenland quite rapidly.
He's obviously looking at his own pension plan and therefore wants to keep NATO rolling.
The difficulty is that the Europeans are behaving like student political body, so we've got the Spaniards saying, oh, we don't want to let the Americans in and use NATO territory and NATO bases.
But the truth of the matter is America has the whip hand.
It's got the biggest military.
It's got more military than all the rest of NATO put together pretty much and therefore, Ultimately, NATO has to decide whether Europe wants to go undefended, whether they're going to miraculously find zillions of dollars down the back of the sofa in order to buy themselves a proper set of armaments, or they're going to bow to the hand of Trump and they're going to allow him to continue to try and protect them while they can manage to rally and get their defenses together. and Patrick, I do want to get your take on what you think will happen with the Strait of Hormuz.
All of us are keeping a close eye on oil prices given the rise in both WTI as well as Brent prices.
Now traffic through the Strait is already down to a trickle, but we have been hearing about some ships actually getting through.
So what do you think actually transpires here when it comes to this critical waterway.
As I mentioned last week, pipelines from Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea are already operating much closer to capacity.
It's not enough given 20% of the world's gas and oil is flowing through the Straits of Hormuz, but we are seeing a trickle of ships getting by.
There's a crucial vote coming up at the UN Security Council.
Curiously, it looks as if that Bahraini initiative is going to be vetoed by China because China is very Unhappy with American military aggression as it perceives it, which is somewhat of a counterproductive move for China, given the fact that they're reliant upon more oil coming out of the Straits of Hormuz than America is.
I mean, remember, the USA's oil is a rounding error.
A couple of percent of the US oil requirements come through the Straits of Hormuz.
Not the same for the Europeans, certainly not the same for the Asians in Japan and China.
What are we going to see eventually happening?
Clearly, If Trump does launch this incredible baptism of fire, for want of a better term, around and about Iran, it's all going to be about securing the Strait of Hormuz.
I suspect we're going to be moving towards an opening sooner rather than later.
Look at Foreign Affairs magazine.
There are all sorts of efforts being made diplomatically by the Iranians to open channels for conversation because they realize militarily they face destruction.
And finally, Patrick, before I let you go, I do want to talk about Cuba with Russia preparing to send a second oil tanker here.
So with the war in Iran causing so much chaos in the global energy markets, is the US basically forced to look the other way on Cuba just because they can't afford to enforce the blockade right now?
Obviously it's difficult.
For a few weeks they had a large aircraft carrier that's now gone to the Gulf, in fact, to secure the Straits of Hormuz.
So therefore there is an opening at this juncture that the Russians may be able to get their tanker in.
Nevertheless, bear in mind whatever tankers come through at the moment, ultimately Cuba is living on borrowed time because Secretary of State Marco Rubio looking towards the presidency in several years' time, the overall mega movement looking.
Towards re-election, they want a free Cuba and therefore that means that the regime is going to have difficulties even if one or two tankers manage to get in in the meantime and ultimately that's not going to be enough to alleviate 10 to $11 per barrel, $11 or $10 per gallon I should say, prices we're seeing at the pumps in Cuba, which is infinitesimally larger and higher than the United States of America for a group of people who earn a great deal fewer dollars per hour.
Patrick, we will have to leave it there for today, but I appreciate your time as well as all of your insights today.
