Crypto Under Pressure: Analyzing Bitcoin’s Safe Haven Status

Crypto shedding more than $100 billion in value over the past 24 hours.

We saw Bitcoin, as well as major alts retreating alongside a broader pullback across global markets.

Now we saw Bitcoin fall roughly 5% on Wednesday, and in New York morning trade, we are looking at the crypto major extending losses below the $70,000.

Level crypto sentiment has shifted back to fear, and yesterday's decline shows sideways trading action is still taking place.

The crypto majors looking at a positive March despite an overall double digit drop in Q1, and that's because crypto is actually higher since the conflict began in the Middle East at the end of last month.

Unlike the major averages and And precious metals joining me to weigh in this morning is Ray Salmond, Head of Markets at Cointelegraph.

Good morning.

Thank you so much for joining us.

Well, in the past 24 hours we've had the Fed meeting.

Powell speaking and of course the latest developments in the Middle East.

So what do you make of the price action that we are seeing in the crypto majors in particular Bitcoin.

Hey, good morning, Remy.

You know, it's bearish one day and bullish the next or vice versa.

So what we saw happen was risking off ahead of the FOMC, which is typical for crypto markets, and that was followed by a bounce after the Fed rate decision kind of aligned with the market consensus, which was a pause.

So we did see a little bit of apprehensive trading below 720, but fast forward less than 24 hours, and now we're Below 70,000.

So, um, there were a few bombs that Powell dropped in his, um, in his presser.

And what we see happening is the market digesting that.

What's clear is that, um, the war in Iran is having an impact on oil prices, and there's kind of like a down the line.

Shock that that the market is kind of trying to digest and figure out, i.e. what's going to happen to the cost of goods and services.

Will this war kick term like kind of kickstart inflation in the short term?

And then Powell also mentioned that the Fed was refusing to take the idea of Fed.

Rate hikes or interest rate hikes off the table.

Um, so that leaves us with kind of one anticipated cut for the remainder of 2026 and one possibly penciled in for 2027.

So, uh, the inflation outlook is changing and the employment, uh, outlook is changing also, and we see that reflected in crypto markets today and in, and also in equities.

We continue to keep an eye on all asset classes here this morning, especially given all the volatility we've seen since the beginning of 2026.

But when we hone on the price action of Bitcoin, what do you make of its reputation, its so-called reputation as a safe haven asset?

Well, you know, that's, that's always gonna be up for argument, isn't it?

So, um, I think one thing that is clear is that institutions are back and Bitcoin treasuries are back.

Institutional investors are back, and that's encouraging.

We see that in the actual numbers.

So, uh, institutional demand for Bitcoin, uh, surged last week with ETFs.

Flows seeing about $750 million in inflows, and then Strategy's new stretch product, uh, and took $1.2 billion in Bitcoin.

And the actual trading volumes we saw on that strategy product were historic.

On Monday, it took in $300 million.

On Tuesday, it was like 450.

On Wednesday, 450.

And then 740 million on Thursday.

So, um, while the actual day to day price action in Bitcoin this week is disappointing, I think what we see through the fund flows and the ETF flows, and, uh, corporate treasuries adding more Bitcoin, um, kind of, uh, suggests that The price action we saw from from 60,000 all the way up to 75,000 this week, and the last five months of selling has kind of come to an end.

So the fact that institutions are back buying again is a positive despite whatever's happening in the markets this week.

And all of us are continuing to keep our eyes on the nation's capital for politics as well as geopolitical guidance.

But at the same time we're awaiting progress on Capitol Hill regarding market structure here.

So we all know the SEC has taken the lead when it comes to regulatory clarity, but what does it mean for the industry, especially on the heels of the latest announcement from the SEC and comments out from Atkins saying most crypto tokens aren't securities.

That was a huge win.

That's a huge positive.

Um, I thought initially the run up to 75,000 or 76,000 that we saw on Bitcoin was partially influenced by, um, by that clarity that was provided by the SEC.

And the CFTC.

So that, that clarification gives answer to questions that crypto builders have struggled to get clear answers on for almost a decade, which is, uh, what is the regulatory view on staking on Bitcoin mining, on ICOs, which is going to have a future impact on IPOs, on Um, Revshare from DeFi companies, I mean, it's huge.

So, um, I think that the clarity provided from those regulators will help DeFi and crypto builders now connect with B2B and B2C, uh, entities better, and, you know, that it, it should help catalyze growth across the entire sector.

So, uh, that's a huge win. to keep our eyes on.

So finally before I let you go, I do want to ask you about what you mentioned earlier about data given recent as the recent surge in derivatives as well as open interest mixed with uneven ETF and flows.

What is your near term price target for Bitcoin.

I don't think much has changed.

So there's still the risk of Bitcoin dropping to 60,000 or below.

A lot of analysts believe that that's possible, uh, that the bottoming process is not complete.

At the same time, uh, what we saw this week is that Bitcoin still has a price ceiling on it.

There is resistance around 75,000 to 80,000.

Uh, it may be difficult to overcome that level.

So, while we see spot, um, spot volumes increasing, while we see institutional allocation, uh, via the ETFs and, um, products like strategies stretch, um, also soaring, and that's a positive, uh, we have yet to see, um, the, the kind of Necessary increase in use of perpetuals and people opening margin laws.

Well, Ray, I hate to interrupt you, but we are creeping up on the opening bell here.

So thank you so much for joining us, Ray.

Thanks.

Thank you.