Bitcoin is treading water at around $74,000 this morning as traders hold their positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET today. The token briefly touched $76,000 overnight before retreating, and has so far failed to hold above the $75,000 level despite Tuesday’s landmark joint SEC-CFTC guidance, which classified crypto assets into five categories and removed the majority from securities law.
The critical variable is not the decision itself but Chair Jerome Powell’s tone regarding the Iran war’s inflationary impact. Signals that the oil shock will be treated as transitory could provide the catalyst the market has been waiting for. Bitcoin declined after seven of the eight FOMC meetings held in 2025, creating a persistent sell-the-news dynamic that traders will be acutely aware of heading into today’s announcement.
XRP is trading around $1.50, sitting just above a heavily trafficked options cluster at $1.40 on Deribit, where roughly $14.6 million in open interest (nearly 25% of all XRP options on the exchange) is concentrated ahead of a March 27 expiry.
On the equity side, the FTSE 100 has opened modestly higher this morning, and U.S. futures are pointing to a positive open on Wall Street, with S&P 500 futures up 0.48% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.62% as of early morning. This may signal a decoupling from the price of oil, with brent crude trading above $100 a barrel again today with Hormuz flows still disrupted.
All eyes remain on Powell’s 14:30 ET press conference and signals of any shifts expected paths for cuts later this year. The Bank of England and European Central Bank will also meet on Thursday.