Let's bring in the great Phil Rosen.
He is the co-founder of Opening Bell Daily.
He is host of Full Signal, and he's also my friend.
Most importantly, thank you for being here, bud.
Good to have you.
Thank you for having me, JD.
So I mean, listen, we deal with shop, we deal with volatility.
It doesn't feel as if we are 4% or so off of all-time highs, but Phil, as we take a look up, it's another red day as oil's moved higher, but we're not that far.
From all-time highs, what are you seeing in the markets?
Pretty much everything that the stock market has had thrown at it, all the bear sentiment, the war, the oil prices, the inflation shocks, none of this has really derailed the bull market, as you said, 4% within record highs.
Earnings are still pretty solid, and expectations for earnings continue to be pretty solid.
I don't know what it's going to.
To throw a wrench in this bull market, but pretty much nothing has been able to do that yet.
Yes, I might be oversimplifying, but it seems at least the tale of the tape this week an inverse relationship between crude oil prices and stocks on a day like today, West Texas up to 98 98% a share, $98 a barrel, Brent up to $103 a barrel as those indicators have moved up, we've had equities fall.
Is that a fair read kind of how things Played out the last few days in the near term, yes, and there is so much uncertainty about the war in Iran and a lot of people are nervous and fearful about it.
However, if you go back for 40 years, there's been 8 oil shocks similar to this where oil prices have gone up 20% over a 48 hour period.
We've seen that this week and a year later, in 7 of those 8 times, stocks are up 24%.
Over 12 months, so that's a pretty good hit rate, 7 to 8 times positive.
I feel good about where the bull market is, where the bull market is going.
I don't expect these oil shocks to be that lasting of an impact.
It's going to be a lot of near term chop, and there's a lot of fears, a lot of uncertainty, but none of that is going to be enough, is what I think, to really detract the bulls from what's ahead.
And speaking of fears and.
Certainty and concerns.
I want to get your take on private credit because although the private credit majors actually ironically they're one of the few sectors of stocks that actually finishing the day in positive territory.
That's not been the tail of the tape over the last month.
Apollo down 23% month to date.
Blue Owl down 32%, KKR down 19% month to date.
Doesn't appear overall as if we're quite, quite out of the woods just yet, Phil.
Terrible numbers, right?
And all of this is coming from worries in the private credit space.
I'm not a private credit guy, frankly, but I'm looking at what the financial sector is telling us right now.
It's the worst performing sector in the S&P 500 this year so far, and even the big banks like JPMorgan, they've had some tremors and fears bubbling around with them.
And the thing about private credit is it's sort of been coming out.
Like a boogeyman right now, and we don't know what's under the hood yet.
We could see some cracks continuing to form, but all of this and still the bull market has not broken down or collapsed.
So that's just one more thing in this great wall of worry with the war, with geopolitics, with midterm election uncertainty, all of this, and yet 4% within record highs.
This is a crazy time.
Yes, the S&P 500 average.
35% pullbacks a year.
We kind of hit the 5% drawdown level earlier this week, but then we've had a couple of sessions in positive territory.
So now we're closer to 4 ironically.
Speaking of pressure, financials, both XLF, the weighted side of things, and equal weight continues to not just underperform the broader market.
It's the worst performing sector.
What are you seeing out of financials, although also ironically some of the big banks finishing this particular Friday in the green.
Yes, you know this is.
Interesting that the financials are not part of the great rotation that we've seen to start the year, right?
We've had big tech with such a winner the last few years.
This year, the Mag 7 have really lagged, and the equal weight S&P 500 has outperformed the market cap weight because of that tech lag.
And yet financials have been like the one corner of the market that haven't really picked up.
If anything, they're dragging everything else down.
I don't know what this private credit thing is, how it's going to resolve itself, but that's really the big head wound right now.
Phil Rosen, co-founder of Opening Bell Daily, host of Full Signal, and my very good friend, my man, have yourself a terrific weekend.
Thank you for being here as always.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Take good care.
