Circle Internet Financial has had a remarkable 2026 – and Wall Street’s most bullish analyst on the USDC issuer is not done yet. Bernstein reiterated its “Outperform” rating on Circle’s shares this week with a price target of $190, implying roughly 60% additional upside from the stock’s current level near $120.
Since bottoming near $50 a share in early February, Circle’s stock has more than doubled, closing Tuesday at $118.17 and giving the company a market capitalization of approximately $30 billion. Circle shares are now up about 49% year to date, outperforming a flat S&P 500 and a roughly 1% decline in the Nasdaq 100 over the same period.
The thesis from Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, rests on a structural argument: stablecoins are no longer a creature of the crypto market cycle, and Circle is best positioned to benefit from what comes next. USDC supply has rebounded to just shy of a record $78 billion even as bitcoin and the broader crypto market remain well below their highs, while the total market for US dollar-backed stablecoins has held steady at around $270 billion throughout the crypto bear market. Adjusted stablecoin transaction volumes, the analysts noted, grew more than 90% year-over-year, with rising transaction velocity suggesting the tokens are increasingly used for real economic activity rather than crypto speculation.
Payments are the engine of that growth. Visa now supports more than 130 stablecoin-linked cards across 50 countries, processing roughly $4.6 billion in annualised settlement volume. Circle’s own payments network — which allows institutions to send USDC across borders and convert it into local currencies through banking partners — now covers corridors spanning the EU, Singapore, India, the Philippines, and the United States, with approximately 55 enrolled institutions and annualised volumes of $5.7 billion as of February 2026.
The longer-term growth driver that Bernstein finds most compelling is less familiar: AI-powered agentic finance. As autonomous software agents increasingly transact online, stablecoins could serve as the natural payment rail for machine-to-machine micropayments, covering everything from API calls to automated digital services.
To capture that opportunity, Circle is building Arc, a high-throughput blockchain designed for fast, low-cost transactions at scale. The timeline for commercialization remains undefined, but Bernstein views it as a credible long-term catalyst that the market has not yet fully priced in.
The regulatory backdrop has also shifted in Circle’s favour. The GENIUS Act, which passed in 2025, established a federal framework for stablecoins, setting standards for reserve backing, disclosures, and oversight — removing a layer of legal uncertainty that had historically weighed on the sector.
Bernstein analysts described Circle as “a long-term category winner,” citing its regulatory positioning, exchange partnerships, and expanding global payments infrastructure.
With stablecoins increasingly embedded in mainstream financial infrastructure and a macro environment that may yet turn more favourable, the argument that Circle’s rally has further to run is one that more than a few institutional investors appear willing to entertain.