Let's bring in Chris Versace, CIO at Tematica Research, managing director of the Street Pro portfolio.
You know, we did our best to prepare one type of show.
We kind of had to throw it all out around 3:15.
What did you see today?
Well, I just want to say first of all, thanks for getting so many people here for me today at the Stock Exchange.
So nice.
You think it's for Paris Hilton.
No, no, it's for Versace, of course, but no, no, I kid.
So you are right, this was a very different market at the close.
I believe in the last 30-40 minutes President Trump said we are mostly complete with the war with Iran, but then again, JD, this is the guy who said inflation has been beaten and the economy is robust.
I think we have to be a little careful, you know, follow the data like I always like to say.
Maybe, maybe we'll see something positive, but I think there could be another shoe to drop in the coming days.
Yes, this was reported by Wei Zhi Jian at CBS News.
Had a phone call.
With the president, the way he's been doing messaging is interesting.
He's doing all these one on one phone calls with outlets as opposed to these big press conferences, but the line is, quote, I think the war is very complete, pretty much.
He goes on to say we are very far, in his words, ahead of the 4 to 5 week expected timeline.
So that's actually pretty interesting because there were reports on Politico last week that the war they were preparing for up to 100 days, possibly even September.
So 4 to 5 weeks, you know what I'd like to be hopeful.
I really would, but I think when we see the hardliners in Iran, I think this could be a little more protracted is the word.
And as I was written at the Street Pro and I've shared with you in the past, when we see things like this duration, folks, duration is the word of the day, the word of the event.
The longer this goes on, the greater the disruption, the.
The higher gas prices are, the higher oil prices are, the more consumers are going to feel the pinch, and I think that's where we need to be concerned, JD, with the consumers.
Yes, we do have West Texas and Brent.
I mean they came in quite a bit off their elevated levels from earlier in the day.
We came into this morning.
They were both priced well above $100 a barrel.
How would you characterize the supply shock that we saw in oil, at least coming into this morning's session, Chris?
Well, You know the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, right?
Not a lot of ships are getting through.
My understanding is that other oil producers are throttling back production because they have nowhere to put the oil.
So the question is going to become how long does this go on for again, back to that word duration.
The longer it goes on, the more like.
Like gas prices will be elevated, but not just gas, diesel, right, jet fuel.
There are going to be reverberations for this throughout different parts of the economy.
And if you think about, you know, the consumer, it's not just gas prices because higher diesel prices will flow through, raising prices for other things.
You mentioned jet fuel.
We had quite the reversal in airline stocks.
They basically all had been down until we hit that 320 window and all surging into positive territory.
What does elevated oil overall mean for the Fed's next move?
The Fed's been kind of quiet.
I mean, it has not been the foremost thing driving price action.
Now they're in their quiet period.
On top of everything else, Chris, we have an FOMC meeting coming up very soon.
Yes, we do, and I think that the Fed is going to be.
In a rock and a hard place.
You saw that February employment report last week where we shed 92,000 jobs, far more than people were looking for.
First off, we've seen inflation ticking up.
We have a CPI report coming and odds are we could see future future inflation in the next couple of months, call it March, call it maybe even April, depending on the duration of all of this, could tick higher.
That's going to put them, like I said, on a rock and a hard place.
I'm trying to get a sense on what the dollar exactly did into the close.
I actually dollar probably fell.
The dollar did fall a little bit.
It's down to 9887 overall.
What do you make of the way the dollar has been moving relative to oil since the attacks in the Middle East?
Well, you have to remember that oil is largely traded in dollars, so it's not really a surprise that as oil has moved up, the dollar is going to move up.
Now that oil has backed off.
The dollar has backed off a little.
Before I let you go, Oracle set to report after the bell tomorrow.
Data center pullback sparking fresh concerns.
Or how are you thinking about it?
I want to see what they have to say really on two fronts, right?
Do they raise their capital spending level like all the other hyper scales have?
Second, what's the RPO or the remaining remaining performance obligations number?
Does it tick higher?
But I'm also going to give a quick plug.
There's another company reporting after the close, Suro.
Capital, a nice way to play OpenAI and a few other privately traded companies.
I think that they're going to deliver a really good quarter.
Chris Versace, Chris Versace, excuse me, the CIO at Tematica Research, managing director of the Street Pro portfolio, good friend of mine, good friend of ours here on the show.
Thanks for being here to kick off the broadcast anytime, my friend.
I'm glad I had you here to help me make sense of the insanity over the last hour on the market.
Well, thank you for getting the crowd.
OK, you got it.
