Welcome back to Market Movers.
The opening bell.
While we are counting down to the 2026 midterms, and they are on track to become the most expensive in US history, with political advertising projected to hit $10.8 billion more than 20% higher than 2022, and highly anticipated primaries kicked off in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas, and a new analysis of campaign.
Showing most Republican House and Senate candidates are centering their messaging on Trump more than on the US economy.
This according to Ad impact.
Democrats by contrast are focusing heavily on inflation, taxes, health care, and education.
Well joining me this morning live from the New York Stock Exchange is Tyler Goldberg, political strategy lead at Assembly.
Tyler, great to have you back.
Thank you so much for joining.
Remy, always a pleasure.
Well, here we are in March of 2026, and the primaries have kicked off.
So what did you make of yesterday?
You know, it was really interesting, especially in Texas, because we are seeing the potency of what I would call the two different lines that each party is going on this year.
So on the Democratic side, you saw James Tallarico who has focused his entire Messaging on affordability cruise to a fairly easy victory in the Democratic primary.
On the Republican side, you saw John Cornyn, who is an established incumbent senator, you know, barely holding on, going into a runoff against Ken Paxton.
That election is focusing more on fealty to President Trump, and I think that may be the pitfall for Republicans this year.
Yes, and speaking of which, it's not surprising, but at the same time the numbers are also staggering when we look at political ad spending.
So what does that tell you about the stakes?
I mean, to date, as of this morning we're at about $705 million placed this year alone.
We're going to end up getting to $10.5 billion if not more.
You know, every time I'm on here we talk about the unprecedented nature of political spending to the point where it's Almost unprecedented line at this point, but it really is staggering the amount of money.
And then you look at a runoff like we're seeing in Texas.
On the Republican side, that could be another $20 or $30 million just in the next few weeks.
Yes, so break this down for us because I know you've been watching the ads.
You've been paying close attention to the data.
So what is the data telling you about ads so far?
I mean, there is an intense focus.
From both parties on focusing on the economy.
Democrats over the past 4 years have performed better in election cycles when they are able to center the conversation on the economy more so than social issues or other parts of their platform.
Republicans do have a weak spot because any time that they are spending not talking about the economy is time that the Democrats will be spending talking about the economy, and that's I would say a danger zone on the Republican side given where voters are on both sides of the aisle.
And speaking of where voters are, you and I are here on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange, and we've seen massive volatility across all asset classes this week and this does come on the heels of the conflict in the Middle East and you mentioned Americans being worried about the economy, and that is something that is top of mind for all of us, especially as the cost of living.
In this country continues to rise.
So what do you make of how the voters are reacting to the ads?
It's interesting because I do think that the president is in a tough spot, right, because the majority of the president's job description has to do with foreign policy, but that's not what Americans think the president should be focusing on.
So again, I would say for President Trump and the Republican Party, any time they are not talking about bringing Costs down anytime they're not talking about affordability, that is sort of a missed opportunity for them in a political context.
So what this week has shown us is there's volatility, you know, oil prices are going up.
There is danger of this sort of spiraling into a longer term conflict.
Not only is that not necessarily where most Americans' minds are at, President Trump campaigned on explicitly not doing that.
So I think there are some sort of danger areas for him again in a political context of where this lands during the midterms.
Yes, and speaking of campaigns for the midterms, campaigns are actually spending much more earlier in the cycle itself.
So what is behind this and is this time really that different?
It is different because we're going to see about a 15% increase in overall midterm ad spend.
I also think, and this is, I think, a really staggering figure, I think we are done seeing election cycles that cost less than $10 billion.
I think every cycle from now on will be over $10 billion which that is a pretty significant sum of money.
So first of all, there's more money, so people are spending it at different times.
On the other hand, you have these primaries and other elections that are springing up out of nowhere.
I mean, we think of last year in the Wisconsin State Supreme Court.
That had tens and hundreds of millions of dollars going towards it.
That was the one Elon Musk was heavily invested in.
Those races can become competitive overnight, and all it takes is a well-timed post from the president or Elon Musk or any one of these sort of luminaries to drive intense amount of spending into these races.
Well, Tyler, a lot to keep our eyes on as we head into the rest of the year and approach in November.
So I appreciate your time and thank you so much for joining us today.
Thanks for having me.
Thank you.
