Market Analysis: Tariffs, Geopolitics, and the Escalating Iran Standoff

US stock markets are a few minutes away from opening now.

Trump stating he would raise global tariffs to 15%, replacing many of the duties that were struck down by the Supreme Court.

Investors are still watching for potential US military action against Iran.

Now nuclear talks in Geneva last week did not go the way the US wanted, and that did send oil prices to their highest level so far this year.

The US and Iran are set to resume talks Thursday in Geneva.

Meanwhile, the US is also experiencing tensions with its ally the UK over Iran.

The UK is denying the US access to its military bases for potential strikes on Iran.

Well joining me to weigh in this morning is Patrick Young, chairman and founder of Exchange Invest.

Patrick, good morning.

So let's start out with the Supreme Court decision striking down Trump's tariffs.

Now Trump denounced the ruling and also reinstated a 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

So what is your reaction and where do you think all of this goes from here?

Well, look, it's very interesting, isn't it?

Good morning, Remy.

I mean, what we're sitting here with this, of course, we've got it in our DNA.

100 years ago, the things like the Smoot-Hawley Act were strangling the American economy and the global economy through protectionism, and that's what worries the stock market and its DNA to its very, very core.

However, the protectionist moves of today are not.

The same thing and it's a very different globalized economy, but at the same time what we have is essentially something like a game of whack a mole seems to be what's happening here.

Every time Trump is going to find an avenue close to him, he's going to try something else.

Therefore, now we've just got this big beautiful tariff, I was to use a Trump speak word, and that's going to apply.

To everybody, because he's no longer allowed to do discriminate tariffs.

Where is it going to go?

Somehow, somewhere they're going to find a way to legislate these tariffs that Trump wants.

Somehow, somewhere we're going to get a resolution.

And in the meantime, a great deal of government time and money will have been wasted in order to hold it back, and eventually the president is going to get what he wants.

I have no doubt by the summertime.

Patrick, this is the situation we closely monitor regarding terrorists, but I do want to shift our focus on over to geopolitics.

So take us through the situation in Iran.

The US nuclear talks with Iran did not go the way they hoped.

We have more talks coming up this week.

So what is the latest here and how do you see all of this unfolding?

The Iranian regime is dancing on a pinhead of disaster at the moment and that. is actually greased and therefore it's going to be very difficult for the mullahs not to fall off it in some way, shape or form.

In essence what we have here is a huge American buildup.

The Americans are ready to strike in all sorts of ways within Iran.

The cat and mouse game has been going on for the last month.

The Iranians are gambling at the idea the Americans won't want to try and affect regime change because they know that that might actually upset the proud popular balance of the Iranian people who View themselves as the classical Persians and therefore should not see their domestic politics interfered from from outside.

Thus we are going to have this continuing game of cat and mouse because ultimately the mullahs have nowhere to go and they are desperate to stay in office, which is therefore going to basically cause an ongoing problem while we wait for more Venezuelan oil to hit the system and therefore we can get the price of crude under control.

Yes, so a lot of moving parts here, but before we move away from Iran, I do want to get your take on US tensions with the UK.

So there are tensions over Diego Garcia, but also the UK denying US access to use its military bases to strike Iran.

So what is actually going on here?

Help us unpack this.

Look, what you've got to understand in the UK at the moment is there's a political crisis.

The Keir Starmer government is already effectively dead in the water despite the fact they've got a supermajority in Parliament, exactly as predicted when they were elected on July 4th, a couple of years ago, because ultimately he is not capable of running the country and therefore what we've got now is student politics taking over.

It's. a left wing sop to the more radical parties on his backbenches who are not keen on the United States of America, full stop.

So he said, no, no, no, you can't use UK bases in order to launch any sort of attacks against Iran.

It plays well.

It tries to keep the desperate Keir Starmer in office and against this we can see actually the lens, everything that goes on in UK politics at the moment is Merely an attempt to try and keep the Prime Minister alive when actually his career is dead on arrival as Prime Minister of the UK.

Obviously that's upsetting the US and probably will kill the deal over Diego Garcia and the islands in the Galapagos and so on because that is a huge fundamental key element of something that has given huge resistance in the UK right now.

And Patrick, I do want to get your take on Cuba while I have you here.

So the US blockade on Cuban oil is severely impacting Cuba's economy, and as you mentioned today we are looking at oil nearly flat, eking out a small gain.

So what is unfolding over in Cuba?

Look, what is unfolding at the moment is that effectively there's no oil, there's no gas, cars are not on the streets, people are not able to drive.

No one is able to get to school, to ballet class, to work even, and therefore the economy is corroding in front of our eyes.

Nightlife is effectively at an end.

The taxi drivers are reaching a point where gas has effectively been somewhere around $10 in the black market, so a multiple of the price you can buy.

For in Caleocho and Little Havana in Miami at this juncture, and that's just unaffordable because we know that Cuban salaries are only a fraction of what goes on.

The taxi driving cartels, they're actually looking at the idea of selling their oil stockpiles as a better way to keep their business going than actually risking trying to drive around, get business in their taxis because nobody can afford prices that have gone up by 1000%.

Where taxis go goes the whole of the energy economy.

Thus Cuba is in crisis.

And remember there are those various American warships doing figures of eight, sailing around the outside of international waters just off the borders of Havana.

The Cuban regime is also dancing on the pinhead of disaster.

It's probably not going to survive this year, such is the acuteness of the economic crisis.

Patrick, before I let you go, less than 60 seconds here, so all eyes will be on China at the end of March as the president of the United States meets with Xi.

What can we expect from that gathering.

I think it's going to be a remarkably emolient gathering actually overall because I think she recognizes where Trump's direction is going.

Might not be entirely aligned with what China needs, but at the same time, China has a series of its own problems.

I think Taiwan issues are actually dissipating somewhat in the background, particularly Because of the Chinese problems with their own high ranking generals where there have been multiple arrests in recent weeks.

So don't be surprised if while it seems to be all somewhat stoic and calm, there's going to be effectively underpinning this some element of ongoing agreement to disagree between the US and China.

Well, Patrick, thank you so much for joining us.

We will have to leave it there, so we appreciate your time and thank you so much for your perspective.