Chocolate Prices Stay High Despite Cocoa Plunge Ahead of Valentine’s Day

Remy: Tomorrow is Valentine's Day. But you know what's not sweet? The cost of chocolate. On the one hand, cocoa prices have plunged from records around the end of 2024 and have fallen about 30% over the last month. And this does include a drop below the $4,000 per metric ton level earlier this week. But on the other hand, chocolate is sticky and so are prices. Box chocolate prices are up almost 12% year over year on average. Chocolate prices remain elevated because makers are using supply bought at last year's highs, with inventories lasting into mid 2026. Now, recipe changes like shrinking bars or reducing cocoa content aren't easily reversed, which locks in higher costs. Price relief for consumers might not hit until late 2026, if at all. As firms prioritize margins over a full cost pass through. Well, joining me ahead of Valentine's Day is David Branch, sector manager for Wells Fargo's Agri-Food Institute. David, happy Friday. Thank you so much for joining us. Well, cocoa prices hit a record high of $12,000 per metric ton back in 2024. take us through where they stand today. And why are we at such low levels but paying so much for chocolate?

David: Well, it goes back to 70% of the world's global supply of cocoa is grown in West Africa. The two major producing countries are the Ivory Coast and Ghana. And the prior three years, weather issues created multiple crop failures year over year related to both disease and everything else. So the supply just came down and the 23-24 crop year, we had a a record deficit in supply versus demand. This current crop year, we've seen a significant improvement in whether yields are up not to where they've had been before, but the supply is up. So the price ran up during that deficit supply because demand remains strong. That has since come down. Um, but like you say, we have this disconnect between what current prices are and when manufacturers bought the product, the raw material to go into their product. And so they're still having to utilize that $10,000 - $12,000 cocoa in current product going on the shelves today. So like you say, it's going to be a while before current prices are reflected in the current cost of cocoa is they finally get to that cheaper cocoa and making the products.

Remy: Yeah. And David, there is this disconnect between the decline in prices for cocoa and the prices of chocolate. And we see inflation is still sticky based on this morning's CPI report. Even though it was cooler than estimates on the headline number. So walk us through cocoa prices leading into the holiday weekend, and in particular Valentine's Day, and what shoppers should expect not just this weekend but also beyond.

David: Well, prices are going to be up. They look like, um, from just my perusing the relatively flat from the holidays. So they haven't bumped up that much just because of expectations of we've actually had lower demand as prices are going up, people are buying less, so manufacturers are trying to maintain that price margin area to make sure they continue to move the product. Um, I expect that, um, you know, we will see some prices easing, maybe by, um, Easter in that holiday season. Uh, but for sure, if weather cooperates, supplies come in like they're currently projected. We will see declines in prices, um, of product um, by Halloween this year.

Remy: Yeah. And David, for our viewers watching right now who still have to get a gift for their loved ones, what are the ways to save when shopping for chocolate this Valentine's Day?

David: Well, you know, Valentine's is unique versus the other holidays where a lot of the people buy chocolate. It's more in the bulk packages. You know, a mixture of all this kind of Valentine's becomes the specialty chocolates, the heart shaped boxes, the specialty things and everything else. Those cost a little more, but we're actually seeing some sales right now, um, at stores. So, you know, if you haven't got anything yet, now would be a good time to pop out and grab something because it's probably going to be discounted. Um, before the holiday hits.

Remy: And finally, before I let you go. Are there other food items that you're keeping an eye on this year and also expecting wild price fluctuations?

David: Well, coffee's been a fun one. We've been watching. It's also been on a roller coaster. Um, and demand for that doesn't really drop per se. Um, you know, I also cover sugar, um, frozen, concentrated orange juice product. You know, went on a tear a year ago, reaching record highs. It's set down lows, but we're kind of waiting to see how the, uh, the recent freeze in Florida will impact Florida's crop as well as, you know, global crop supply. So, yeah, it's a lot going on that we kind of keep track of.

Remy: Yeah. And before I let you go, tell us about coffee here because that's a commodity that I'm keeping my eyes on. Especially because I personally consume a lot of coffee. And I've noticed that prices are higher. So what can we expect at the supermarket as well as the neighborhood café.

David: Right now, prices are going to remain high as well, and it's pretty much supply driven. Um, and so we're just kind of waiting to see on the different areas, current projections of, of crop for the coming year. Uh, and that will kind of help us look at, uh, you know, what what what they think the supply will be and whether we're still going to be sort of in a deficit. Um, and, and prices going up more, or maybe we're going to kind of whittle into that deficit supply and, and we can see prices coming back down. But, uh, yeah, it's still going to be one that we're watching for sure.

Remy: Well, David, we will have to leave it there. But thank you so much for joining us ahead of the holiday weekend and have a happy Valentine's Day.

David: You too. Thank you Remy.