India’s Rising Influence Tests U.S. Foreign Policy Strategy

Remy: India could have a key role in influencing U.S. foreign policy. Last weekend, it announced a key trade deal with the EU, and this eliminates or reduces tariffs on over 96% of goods. And it could be a hedge against the U.S. Now, Trump also says India is buying oil from Venezuela, not Iran. If India did buy from Iran, it would probably lead to a strong response from Trump. As for Trump saying the U.S. is talking to Cuba, he's cutting off Cuba's oil supplies and has predicted the government will fail. Well, joining me to weigh in this morning is Patrick L. Young, chairman and founder of Exchange Invest. Good morning, Patrick. Thank you so much for joining me. So first, what do you think of India's moves with the EU and potentially with Iran?

Patrick: Well, look, what we've got here is a growing world power. India has its eyes on becoming the world's second biggest superpower. Still some way off the USA. But China is now in sight, given their poor demographics and recent problems economically and therefore India is starting to flex and use its weight. PM Modi is an incredibly pragmatic leader. understands how to get India first.

At the same time, he also understands the great power politics is play the different groups off against each other. At the moment, the European Union is ecstatic. They look vaguely relevant for the first time in months because they've signed a deal with India rather than India looking particularly relevant because they've signed a deal with the European Union And thus it leads us to all sorts of debates about oil and other products as Trump tries to keep India within the U.S. ambit. But understanding the fact that India is a private, independent nation with a considerable power in its own right.

Remy: Patrick, a lot of alliances that we continue to monitor as we head into February. But I understand you're joining us from Miami right now, which is a city full of Cuban American pride. So Cuba is another developing geopolitical situation. Over the weekend, the Pope expressed great concern over escalating tensions between Cuba and the U.S. So could an agreement be potentially worked out, or will the Miguel Diaz-Canel regime fail or be compromised because of the U.S.?

Patrick: After seeing what's going on in the course of recent weeks in Venezuela. The Cubans have to realize the time is up on the Castro-era communism. It's going to be all changed sooner or later. The US is in negotiating to see if they can manage to do it by a soft means, but ultimately, the only thing that's warming the hearts of the folks in Little Havana during the course of today, in an unseasonal cold snap in Miami, is the prospect that Cuba is going to be liberated sooner or later. change is coming, whether it's the capitulation of the current regime or through some other means.

And don't forget that huge aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush doing figure of eight laps in international waters just off the coast of Cuba. The pressure is on. The oil is no longer flowing to Havana and that's causing a huge and acute economic crisis. They're going to bring the regime down one way or another in the near future.

Remy: Yeah. And, Patrick, before we move away from Florida, Marco Rubio is also a Cuban American. There's a meme about the responsibility Trump has given him as secretary of state. And there are reports he could be Trump's guy to succeed him come the 2020 presidential election. But where do you stand on this?

Patrick: Look, there is certainly talk. We don't know whether it's official or not. We also know that the president of the United States changes his mind very, very often. He's difficult to read, but he's certainly in a very pro-Rubio mood. The little Marco talk seems like ancient history from a decade ago. And ultimately, what could be better if you're trying to secure a 2028 election, and the idea that Marco Rubio could be the smooth, suave, former senator, successful secretary of state, and if he's a successful secretary of state who managed to upend the Cuban regime, who managed to also have a hand in bringing an end to the worst excesses of the Venezuelan regime, too. We're talking about potential to weigh the Hispanic vote across the USA in many respects, and that could be radical, because truly, it would give him pole position to run for the presidency.

Remy: Well, Patrick, let's shift our focus on over to Europe. The Winter Olympics taking place in Milano get underway this Friday. So given that the Olympics are returning to Italy for the first time in 20 years, there are a lot of politics involved here. So what do you think is the most interesting element and undercurrent?

Patrick: Obviously one undercurrent is Italy is a poorer nation than it was 20 years ago when they hosted the Winter Olympics in Turin. That's absolutely, frankly, despicable. At the same time, for the first time since the postwar era- Mrs. Meloni- She's looking like she's going to be reelected in the course of next year. She's certainly looking to get a full term in office. That is the first time this has happened since 1945. So things are definitely changing in Italy. But overall, maybe the thing that most concerns everybody at the moment is will the Trump Doctrine override thousands of years of ancient Athenian history, which was the permission of safe passage and no wars being created while the Olympics were on?

Perhaps, of course, soft diplomacy from the Trump regime means there's going to be no need for violence, because Cuba is simply going to roll over. And who knows what's going to happen in Iran in the near future. But the days of the mullahs definitely look numbered.

Remy: And finally, before I let you go, Patrick, last week we finally got Trump's nomination for Kevin Warsh as Fedchair. So what are your thoughts on Warsh as a potential Fed chair?

Patrick: This is absolutely, fantastically interesting, Remy. We've got a central banker who was right on QE and its many foibles, who was right on the idea that it was inflation was coming and therefore is effectively unappealing to the global Amalgamated Union of never repentant central bankers who are trying to cover up what was effectively a huge theft of wealth from the poor to the rich through the QE mechanism. think it's fascinating.

It's going to be a big breath of fresh air. We're going to see change happening in the Federal Reserve. And once again, no violence is going to be involved. But I do think there's going to be blood on the carpet of those very extensively renovated headquarters in the near future.

Remy: Well, Patrick, a lot to keep your eyes on as we kick off a new month. So thank you so much for joining us. And as always, thank you so much for sharing your perspective.