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Late $1.8B Buying Surge Calms S&P After Volatile Start to the Year

January 3, 2026

Video Transcript

Let's bring in the man himself, the great Einstein of Wall Street, the institution inside the institution, Peter Tuchman.

What a way to kick off the new year.

Thanks for being here.

Yeah, my pleasure.

Very happy New Year.

What did you look up and see today for the Look at the S&P trying to make up its mind.

You know what?

I, I saw a wild and crazy ride.

It ended up well, but you know, during the day we always talk about we're one tweet away from crazy town, right?

The market came in, a little feeling of a little bit of fresh money, right?

And obviously the first day of the year.

And but we had a ride.

It was at one point where we were trading up 30.

It was, it was weird.

It was all bifurcation.

At one point we were down a couple 100 on the Dow and up 30 or 40 on the spot.

So something was way, you may know better than me, was weighing on the Dow early in the morning.

I don't know, probably one or two different names, and then it kind of flipped.

They were both to buy and then we were up 40 or 50 handles on the S&P and then it just got whacked midday, early, early midday, and I'm not sure what it was.

We tried to find.

What news came out on the tape, I'm not sure.

Maybe it's just volatile.

Maybe it's the first day of the year and everyone's trying to get their footing.

But you know, at the end we were sort of fighting the imbalances because at one point we were too big to buy, $2 billion to buy.

The market responded accordingly.

It flipped to sell, right?

And then we ended up flipping back to buy on the post.

So this rally you saw was a function of $1.8 billion to buy that came in in the last two minutes of trading.

So what does that show me?

That's fresh money coming in.

People positioning themselves with billions of shares and dollars coming in on both sides.

So I like that.

Good breath, as you said, 2 to 1 advances versus declines if you want to look in the nooks and crannies.

And so overall I think it's a great first day.

Yes, we like to look at the nooks and crannies because the most consolidated, those tech names don't always tell the overall story with regards to breadth of it under the surface in your, in your career, your esteemed career here at the big board, the iconic New York Stock Exchange, what do you look for in terms of volume or?

Early year action that you'll be paying attention to as we come into Monday, which kicks off the first full trading week of the brand new calendar year.

You know what?

Look, I'm going to, we have to see what is going to be the next catalyst.

Are we going to head up, you know, we have got a lot of landmark potential thresholds that we could be hitting here.

Obviously 7000 on the S&P, 49,000, 50,000 on the Dow.

You know, as we went over this morning, you and I were on this morning, we talked about 2025 being an extraordinary.

Every year and a resilient one, even though everything sort of was thrown at this market and we were able to get through it.

Look, this is day one, right?

One day does not make a market.

We know that January, as you had said earlier, can portend what's going to happen for the rest of the year.

Do we put all our nuts in that basket?

I'm not so sure.

But right now we're obviously we're looking to see what the follow through is on the on the interest rate cuts and the transition.

Into a new Fed chairman, then how is the energy sector going to look relative to all that demand that's going to be put on it by the AI sector?

And so and then we're going to look at banks and then we're going to look at the first quarter earnings that are going to start to come in, right?

Then we're going to sort of get a, we're going to be able to look back on the year, right, and really get a good view of it, digest it, understand it, right, and marinate for a little bit, and then try and figure out what the what the guidance is going.

To look like to the point about digestion, you and I talked every day during those Liberation Day lows.

If we were to go back to Monday, April 7th, it seems so cataclysmic in many ways, but I think investors over time, they sort of learned to kind of go with the flow a little bit, not have those knee jerk reactions to every little tariff announcement out of the White House.

You have a sense that we head into the new year, that the worst of those trade policy uncertainties are somewhat behind us, or still something investors need to pay attention to because they could emerge at any time.

Well, I always say we're one tweet away from crazy town with the new people at the top of the board right now.

However, I think that we've learned a lot this year, right?

We've also, we've learned, I'm so glad you brought that up because what we did learn is not to overreact to every little tick, every little tariff response.

If you learn anything from the way Mr.

Trump maneuvers and you know and sets policy and does things, you know, if you don't like the weather, just wait a minute because 185% tariffs today, 9 hours later, maybe, you know, oh, he's my best friend, and we're taking the ball and leaving the playground together.

So, you know, and if you were to react through last year and every knee jerk, you're probably chasing the ball in an unfortunate way.

At the end of the day, markets are strong, they're resilient.

Over time we know the S&P goes up.

This is not a recommendation disclaimer across the board.

However, the market, it's a tale of the tape.

The market tells us what it thinks of the Information.

Has it had enough time to tell us what it thinks of the forthcoming things to come in the near future?

Not yet.

I think we'll see it Monday and next week will be very telling.

You know, we still do have to digest what happened with the Fed last week.

So the bottom line is this is the economy doing better than we thought?

Are we looking, so already today there was a lot of chatter like, OK, maybe only one cut next year.

I don't know how they could even be saying that because we're just starting to get economic data that we.

Been cut out from and now we're getting new data, right?

That's what's going to start to happen next week.

We're going to start to get the stuff that we were not privy to and we're going to start to get things that are new data coming in and that will be very tough.

You did an amazing job this week.

Go ahead and take the weekend off.

You've earned it.

You know what?

I think I'm going to take a couple of days off.

The great Peter Tuchman.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.

Always in this beautiful institution, the New York Times.

Thanks for being here as always, giddy up, as we like to say.

Happy New Year one and all.

Thanks for being here.

We'll see you next week.

With the dawn of a new year, Peter Tuchman, recognized as the “Einstein of Wall Street,” provides an in-depth analysis of the S&P 500, and his thoughts on market dynamics at the iconic New York Stock Exchange. In this discussion, Tuchman explores the intricacies of the stock market, providing insights into volatility, investor behavior, and potential catalysts for future growth.

During the S&P’s first trading day, Tuchman noted a considerable fluctuation in market performance. He remarked, “It was a wild and crazy ride,” reflecting the uncertainty that often accompanies early-year trading. With the S&P trying to find its footing, the market experienced bifurcation—at one point, the Dow was down several hundred points while the S&P fluctuated close to 50 points up and down. This volatility underscores the challenge of predicting market trends, especially when fresh money begins to flow into the system.

Highlighting a significant moment in the trading session, Tuchman explained that a late rush of $1.8 billion in buying activity stabilized the market. Such inflows indicate confidence from investors and suggest a positive outlook as they position themselves for potential gains. Tuchman remarked on the importance of breadth in the market, noting a 2 to 1 ratio of advances to declines, demonstrating a healthy market undercurrent that often goes unnoticed in major tech stocks.

As Tuchman peered into the future, he questioned what forthcoming catalysts might influence market trajectories in the coming weeks. He stressed the necessity to pay attention to potential interest rate cuts and the implications of a new Fed chairman. Tuchman also highlighted the importance of the energy sector, particularly how it will respond to increased demand driven by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and how that affects overall market performance.

Tuchman’s insight into how investors have evolved amidst volatile environments is noteworthy. He emphasized learning to mitigate knee-jerk reactions to tweets or news cycles that can lead to erratic trading decisions. “We’re always one tweet away from crazy town,” he cautioned, yet he also acknowledged that investors have grown more resilient and strategic in their decision-making processes over the past year. Understanding that markets adjust over time, he aptly advised against overreacting to daily fluctuations.

As the first week of the new year unfolds, Tuchman forecasted a crucial period where investors would need to digest incoming economic data—data that was previously unavailable. With predictions focused on just one interest rate cut for the year, he expressed skepticism regarding such projections and pointed out that true understanding of market conditions requires comprehensive data analytics and patience in response to the fluctuations.

In conclusion, Peter Tuchman’s expert analysis highlights the resilience of the market, recognizing that while daily fluctuations can be sharp, the underlying trend of growth and recovery remains robust. He advocates for an informed and strategic approach to investing, especially as the year progresses and new economic indicators emerge. Investors are encouraged to focus on long-term trends while being mindful of short-term volatility.

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