Let's get to the big story breakdown.
Well, Wall Street is looking at a higher open on this Monday morning on hopes to an end to the government shutdown.
Last week, the S&P finished lower, ending a three-week winning streak, and investors turning more cautious as concerns grew about high stock valuations among AI-driven tech names.
Now in terms of This week we will be paying attention to progress on Capitol Hill as well as the latest earnings and foot speeches.
Well joining me to weigh in on this Monday morning is Peter Tuchman, senior floor trader at Trademos.
Peter, good morning.
Happy Monday.
Happy.
Well, we are looking at higher, right?
So what's going on here?
You know what?
It's, it's always so curious that the market never disappoints, you know, if you ever thought we were going to have sort of a lackluster time or it was quiet or whatever, that never happens, right?
Just when you think things are just going to, you know, kind of go steady, steady as she goes, you know, something happens, it's, you know, and even more with the new administration, right?
They're all, you know, we always say we're all one tweet away from Crazy town.
So obviously, you know, all eyes have been on the government shutdown.
It did not really, it was starting to engage the market in a negative way.
Right, I started, you started to see the egg crack in so many different ways, you know, to the point where you know you were starting to see it pull back on tech, right, valuations start to be addressed and then they started talking bubble, which I think is completely nuts.
That just made no sense.
But it's funny how you know mainstream media, right, will catastrophize situations and just create things that aren't particularly real, right?
And I don't think there was anything real about, you know, the bubble, at least that's my opinion research.
Around myself with smart people and way smarter.
I know I look like Einstein.
I'm not that smart, but those around me, you know, there's been so much look, anybody, I think even a layperson looking at all the numbers and all the participation by the big, big players around the tech thing is showing this is not a bubble.
But anyway, the fact that we are getting some inkling that the government shutdown is imminent, right?
We always talk about the Fed announcement is intimate.
Well, now this is going to be imminent and so we'll have a whole week to really deal with that until it actually comes to fruition, but it's kind of a bit of a slingshot.
Everyone's been waiting, even though we still, you know, it was not really literally until last week.
I know you mentioned the last 3 weeks have started.
The markets started to waver a little bit, but literally last week was really the first time we just started to see things crack down.
And so we know we're looking forward, as we've said before, November is the most robust seasonally of the.
Of the month that the market is and so we were starting to see wow, maybe this one in November won't be that way, but sure enough, you know, as I said, the market never disappoints, so I think things are Piers, things will be OK.
We get the government shutdown now it's going to take a few weeks to get back on.
Right, and you know, you started to see real breakdown in airports and travel and stuff like that and you know it's curious when it actually starts to affect just your general Joe and Joe and Jane type of situation, that's when they really sort of, you know.
They put the pedal to the metal and we get a deal done.
Yes, and you mentioned the Fed, Peter, and it's interesting because the countdown is on for the Fed meeting, the last one of 2025, and with the end of a government shutdown, we'll finally start getting those economic data points that we've been looking for, especially when it comes to the labor market and the jobs report for September as well as October.
And this morning we are looking at expectations for.
5 basis point rate cut from the Fed reserve rising yet once again.
So what do you think will happen as we head into your end?
You know what, you know, they did, they did come out in the last meeting and say that a December was not a surety.
I wasn't sure whether that was the Fed J pow pow pow poking the barrel a little bit, right, because it seemed to me that we've we've been driving blind for a while, right, and obviously.
The unemployment and non-job payroll are a big factor here, right?
I believe that the army is here.
That's why we're getting there is always, you know, a big supporter of our armed services.
So whenever they come here we get up in arms, as it were.
But all that being said, I forgot where you were going.
What was the question?
Yes, the Fed outlook and the economic data.
So you know, in the last meeting he did say that.
December was not a surety, but look, now we're going to then last week the Challenger came out, which is one of the services that does give information that when we can't get it from the normal sources said that there have been a million layoffs already this year.
That kind of shocked the market a lot.
That was the beginning of a bit of a breakdown of last week's breakdown.
But so we need CPI, we need PPI.
We need unemployment rate.
We need this information.
The federal deserves.
The Federal Reserve's decision making is all based on economic data, and if we're driving blind, then we have a problem.
So now all that's going to come out my gut is that I think we'll probably see a spike in the probability, you know, this guy who had a chat with Dan Ives the other day who said that he said to me, he goes, the chances of me playing center for the New York Knicks is around about the time that we're not going to get a shot, a cut in December.
So that seems like a surety now more than ever.
And finally, before I let you go, how did the market open, we are looking at Nasdaq futures soaring by 1.5%.
The S&P 500 is set to open about 1%.
So in the short term as we head into this week between now and Friday, what are you paying attention to?
Well, look, I think you know the one the one sector that got really beat up, you know, in the last couple of weeks has been tech, right?
And I think it really started with Pallanttier's earnings, which were blowout, but that was but that started a, you know, curious.
Enough for some reason blow out earnings.
It was like buy the room or sell the news.
The stock was down 8% and very often you'll see whether it's the Dow, the S&P, or the Nasdaq, one stock that was the focus of everyone's attention, if that starts to fall, that can really take it's like when EF Hutton talks, everybody listens.
When Pallantir or Nvidia go down, it can take the market down with it, and I think that was what started to go down.
So that being the one, the stock, the sector that got beat up the most, I think that was going to.
The slingshot with them being up more than the S&P, but you know, I think, I think the market is just the runway is clear now, clear for a cut, clear for November being a powerful month, and we're getting back in business, and I think that's going to make everybody happy, you know, it was looking like things are going to be really problematic and we didn't need that.
Well, Peter, let's see where the week takes us.
You'll be back here on Friday morning and we'll see what happens with the government.
