“Wall Street doesn’t want to make October negative.” – 01:17
José Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers, joins Remy Blaire at the New York Stock Exchage to discuss the current state of the markets and the political landscape. The segment opens with Remy highlighting the ongoing government shutdown, which has now entered its fourth week, and the upcoming Federal Reserve decision scheduled for October 29th. She sets the stage for a conversation about how these factors are influencing market sentiment during this “spooky season.”
Remy and José delve into the recent rally on Wall Street, noting that it has helped prevent October from becoming a negative month. They discuss how regional bank concerns have been alleviated by positive profitability results from lenders, suggesting that these issues are isolated rather than widespread. José points out that improving US-China relations, despite weak retail sales and fixed investment data from China, may be beneficial for the U.S. from a leverage perspective.
The conversation shifts to the contrasting performances of gold and Bitcoin. José notes that gold has experienced a significant rally, surpassing $4,000 and even reaching $4,300, while Bitcoin has struggled, falling below the $1.10 level. He expresses optimism for Bitcoin’s potential recovery as the year comes to a close, citing historical trends that favor bullish sentiment in November and December.
As they discuss the upcoming APEC summit, Remy and José consider the implications of the anticipated discussions between Trump and Xi Jinping. They also touch on the current state of the currency and fixed income markets, which José describes as having been relatively quiet due to a lack of impactful economic data. He emphasizes the importance of the upcoming CPI release, which could provide direction for investors.
In the final moments, Remy asks José for his outlook on the December Fed meeting. José predicts a 25 basis point cut, explaining that factors such as decelerating payrolls and challenges faced by rate-sensitive sectors will influence this decision.