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Market Reactions: What the Latest Jobs Report Means for Investors

Market Movers: The Opening Bell

September 9, 2025

Video Transcript

Let's get to the big story breakdown.

All eyes are on inflation and jobs data that could shape how quickly the Fed cuts interest rates.

We're looking at.

Treasury yields sticking higher this morning.

Last Friday, the 10 year yield fell to its lowest level since April after the latest jobs report showed slower than expected hiring in August.

Now a rate cut next week is almost guaranteed, but the size and future moves do remain uncertainty and Certain and key data to watch this morning include the Labor Department's employment preliminary benchmark revisions at 10 a.m. along with the Q1 2025 data from the quarterly census of Employment and wages, and this will of course be followed by August producer and consumer inflation reports tomorrow and Thursday.

Joining me without further ado is Michael Reinking, senior market strategist at the New York Stock Exchange.

Michael, good morning.

Thanks for joining me.

Good morning, Rammy.

Thanks for having me back.

Well, this is the first time we're speaking since that jobs report, but later this morning we will be getting the BLS snap on payrolls revisions.

So what are your expectations?

Yes, so that jobs report was weak, you know, that kind of really cemented the idea that we'll see a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, you know, with today's revisions, right, I would say.

There's a pretty wide range of expectations, you know, between 500 and a million jobs to be removed from what we've seen over the last year.

So just to put that in perspective, right, there were 1.76 million jobs created kind of over that time period.

Now kind of administration officials have suggested somewhere kind of in the middle of that of that range, you know, 700.

800,000 that you'll see.

So that's a little over a third of all total job creation that we're going to take out of the equation.

I would suggest that if today's data, along with the inflation data later this week, they can have a little bit of an asymmetric set up in terms of the Federal Reserve where if we see Um, a revision that is near the upper end of that range, closer to a million, right, and if you see that inflation data come in a little better than expected, you're going to really start to hear the conversation around a 50 basis point cut.

You're going to start to pick up and then from there you'd have to kind of watch, you know, the press as we've seen in the past couple of years, you know, pay attention.

The Wall Street Journal, the FT to see if you really start to hear, you know, kind of that that story get you kind of pick up some steam, you know, you know, from, you know, Nick Timros and some of the other authors out there because the Fed's not going to want to necessarily disrupt the market, right?

So, uh, you know, it's kind of an interesting setup I think at the end of the day, you know, it's not going to necessarily change the picture though.

Yes, Michael, we have less than an hour to go until that data point comes out for the BLS revisions and next week, starting Tuesday, the Fed kicks off its two-day meeting, so we're paying close attention to what comes out of the Fed on Wednesday afternoon.

But as you mentioned ahead of that.

We do get those inflation figures you gave us your take on what this means for the Fed, but what does all of this mean for the equity market?

Yes, so I mean it's pretty interesting, right?

So if you look at kind of the equity market performance right since we broke the fresh highs at the end of June, right, we've been in this like slightly higher kind of pennant form formation, but you really kind of a consolidation between 6200 and 6500, right? you know.

There's been some minor drawbacks, you know, kind of drawdowns, you know, kind of within that, but it's been a pretty kind of quiet kind of period of time from a volatility perspective, right?

So in the near term, there's a couple of levels that I'm kind of paying attention to, right, 6350, so the 20 day moving average has been kind of this buoy that we've been moving along that's around 6450, but a little more key is.

6350 in the S&P 500.

That was the low just before the Powell of speech in Jackson Hole.

We retested that, you know, like a week and change ago and that's right around the 50 day moving average, right?

So if you, if you kind of break below that level, that would put that lower end of the range and the retest of the previous highs at 6200, you're kind of back in play, you know, if you look at kind of positioning.

Um kind of has started to get kind of stretched, right?

We know we're in this seasonally negative time period which also can give you that counterintuitive, you know, kind of move to the upside where everybody's expecting the pull back and you don't get it, you know, so we'll have to kind of see.

Coming out of that Federal Reserve meeting, do we get to sell the news kind of sort of event, right, or is that going to be something that really helps to break us out of the range?

And I would just say we've seen kind of the relative strength index.

We've seen this negative divergence in the relative strength index where on this move higher right, we're not seeing a confirmation.

So if we do break out above 6500, you want to really see that happen with some authority to tell you that this that this rally is going to have more.

Like, a lot to keep our eyes on.

So I do want to end our discussion with bonds, not just in the US but also overseas.

So given what's happening overseas politically, there's a lot to digest in the European markets as well as Japan.

But here in the US, we are looking at the 10 year right below the 4.07 level.

So what do you expect to see more volatility?

I mean, I mean more volatility is probably a good expectation, you know, kind of what we've seen you last week, we were really testing like upper. kind of resistance points and areas that you would be paying attention to from a yield perspective and we kind of tested those levels and then actually kind of went immediately from the upper end to the right breaking through kind of your previous support levels, right?

So we've seen a pretty significant move 4.2% in the 10 year was a pretty key level.

We moved right through that, you know, kind of suggest that you could see a move down to that, you know, retest the lows, you know.

Which are around 390, you know, kind of right back in that April in that April time frame, so that 390 to 4% level, you know, as you're starting to see kind of the Federal Reserve going to begin embark upon its rate cutting cycle, it's going to be very interesting to see how the long end of the curve reacts.

If you think back a year ago when they began cutting, you started to see the long end of the curve move higher.

Now I think that was a situation where There was a fear of a policy mistake at that point and we removed the risk of a recession by kind of taking an aggressive step.

From here, the bigger question is going to really be, you know, you have the Federal Reserve cutting rates in a rising inflationary environment.

If you start to see that decoupling, that's going to, that's going to be a little bit more problematic.

Well, Michael, a lot to keep our eyes on as we head into the rest of this week, so I look forward to speaking with you next week as the Fed kicks off its meeting.

Thanks very much.

“If you see that inflation data come in a little better than expected, you’re going to really start to hear the conversation around a 50 basis point cut.” – 01:58

Michael Reinking, Senior Market Strategist at the NYSE, joins Remy Blaire to discuss the critical economic factors currently shaping the financial landscape, particularly focusing on inflation and job data. The discussion centers around how these elements could influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions regarding interest rates.

Remy begins by highlighting the recent movements in Treasury yields, noting that the 10-year yield has fallen to its lowest level since April, following a jobs report that revealed slower-than-expected hiring in August. This backdrop sets the stage for what many analysts predict will be a near-certain rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the upcoming week, although the specifics of future rate adjustments remain uncertain.

The conversation shifts to the anticipated Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payrolls revision, which is expected later in the morning. Michael shares his expectations, indicating a wide range of potential job revisions, with estimates suggesting that between 500,000 and 1 million jobs could be removed from the previous year’s data. He emphasizes that this significant adjustment could alter the narrative around job creation, with administration officials hinting at a middle ground of approximately 700,000 to 800,000 jobs being revised.

As they look ahead to the upcoming inflation reports, Michael discusses the asymmetric setup for the Federal Reserve. He explains that if the job revisions lean towards the higher end and inflation data comes in better than expected, discussions around a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut could gain momentum. Remy notes the importance of monitoring financial news outlets for any shifts in narrative that could influence market sentiment.

The conversation then transitions to the equity markets, where Remy and Michael analyze performance trends since the market reached fresh highs at the end of June. Michael points out a consolidation phase within a specific range, identifying key levels to watch, particularly the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average. He warns that breaking below certain thresholds could signal a return to previous lows, while a breakout above recent highs would need to be confirmed by strong market momentum.

Finally, the discussion shifts to the bond market, where they consider the implications of political developments overseas and their potential impact on U.S. bonds. With the 10-year yield hovering just below the 4.07% level, Michael anticipates increased volatility as the Federal Reserve begins its rate-cutting cycle. He reflects on past experiences where rate cuts led to rising long-term yields, raising concerns about the potential for a policy misstep in a rising inflation environment.

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