Let's get to the big story breakdown.
Well, the July reading on PC consumer inflation coming in unchanged month over month.
Well, keep in mind the S&P 500 and Dow industrials closed at record highs yesterday, boosted by a surprise report on US economic growth.
The Commerce Department revising second quarter GDP up to 3.3%, which was higher than the previous estimate.
While this doesn't change.
The big picture, it does add some polish to the quarter's performance.
Markets are still watching the delicate balance between persistent inflation and a softening job market.
Well ahead of the holiday weekend here in the US.
Joining me live is Peter Tuchman, senior floor trader at Trademos.
Friday.
Friday, everybody.
Well, hard to believe summer is almost over and September is right around the corner.
I know, but what a summer it's been, right?
We step back, think about June, July, August.
Here we are.
The S&P 500 hit yet another record high and clear that 6500 level. history.
What did you make of that gain?
You know what, look, I mean you just mentioned July, June, July, August.
I'm even going back to February, March, April.
It's been a while. half of a year really in so many different ways we've navigated, you know, if everyone, if anyone were to think that we've actually seen in sort of a microcosm of look, we've seen everything that a market could happen that could happen to a market in a short period of time the high high, the low lows, you know, inflation, tariffs, interest rates, you know, the Armageddon, Independence Day, whatever the, whatever it was called, and So you know the fact that we can, we can get through all of that and navigate it and still yesterday for the, I believe the first time in history hit a record high on the same day of the Nasdaq, the S&P, and the Dow all hit record highs on the same day is just incredible.
And so what does that, what does that say?
What does that say for the market?
What does that say for the confidence in the economy in the markets?
Let's say, you know, markets and economy don't.
Go together.
We know that the bad news in the economy is sort of erring on the side of good news for the markets because it's giving us a little bit of a clearer runway for interest rates, but I think it's extraordinary.
I think 65, you know, that means that I'm going to mention my friend Dan Ives.
The fact that he believes there's going to be a 7 in front of that number before year end almost makes sense, right?
And so you know we've had really good earnings.
We know the banks are in good condition.
We know a lot is.
Good is happening.
We know that we've checked off a lot of boxes relative to tariffs and whatnot, and we also know that there's some, there's some sticky points along the way when it comes to the economy, right?
However, even with that sticky points about unemployment going up and the jobs number and all that, we are still seeing growth and you know I love the line that you used that said puts a little polish on the report because it does, you know, we went from 2.4%.
3 a couple of Wednesdays ago when we had that the day before the Fed met on GDP growing and now they're going from 3 to 3.3%.
That is a big adjustment and that means things are growing.
Yeah, and Peter, you were able to pack in a lot in that answer and believe it or not, since we saw 6000 on the S&P 500, less than 200 days to reach that 6500 level, but for people out there who are Watching and they're thinking about how their bills are going up.
What does all of this mean when it comes to the economy, because what we see on Wall Street, the stock market is not the economy, and Americans are wondering what's next.
Well, look, we know that Wall Street and Main Street don't are not always working in the same in step with each other, you know, very, very often, you know, they, they, they, they sort of bifurcate, you know, and that's just that's the bottom.
We also need to really be honest and know that who's invested in the stock market.
It's not people who are struggling, right?
I mean, I would hope so.
I'm hoping I'm I'm on a mission that everybody gets a little bit of a little bit of action in the stock market, you know, invest in stocks and not stop.
That's one of my big missions, right, because we want everyone to be able to grow a legacy and change the dynamic and whatever and the narrative, but at the end of the day, you know.
We are also seeing the impact of tariffs.
People need to understand that, and we did not feel that a few weeks ago.
The reality of that is happening now.
We're seeing it in the cost of things.
We're seeing it in, you know, it's cutting, it's pulling back a little bit on the personal expenditure.
We're seeing it in the cost and the impact that tariffs are having.
And you know, on the book bag that you're going to buy your kid next week on his way back to school already you may have already bought it, you know, and retail sales and all of those things, it is impacting the market.
So you know I'm hopeful that you know that the economy will play catch up.
The market tends to be very forward looking and if that is the case and the market is running ahead of the economy, maybe it will cause a backwind and we pull the economy with it.
Yeah, and looking ahead, Peter, it seems as though Jackson Hole was weeks ago, but in reality it was last Friday.
And next Friday we get that jobs report.
We're going to be here bright and early next Friday talking about non-farm payrolls and unemployment, and we have to keep in mind that the Fed's September 17th Fed rate decision is right around the corner as well.
So what are you looking forward to as we return from the holiday weekend?
OK, so we're going to see a lot.
There's a lot of economic data right now. eyes are on the economic data because we did have that the Fed talk.
It was not a Fed meeting.
It was a Jackson Hole, right?
OK.
And and then he unpacked a lot during that day.
And so we do know that he's shifted his policy and pivoted a lot around the acceleration of interest rate cuts.
We don't know the exact numbers.
We do know that Bullard over the weekend, last weekend, who may be the next Fed chairman, talked about a 100 basis point cut between now and the end of the year.
Know that Mr.
Besson is calling for 150 basis points.
We know that we're going to have to figure out basically the fine nuance of it all is what economic data we get between now and September 17th and how does that curate and adjust the actual numbers.
Is it 25 basis points now and maybe 75 by year end?
Is it 50 and 50, we don't know, and I think that will be based on the economic data.
There's a lot to unpack.
We will be really looking all eyes on the economic data because That number that this is what started this ball rolling was those jobs adjustments last time.
That was the first little bit of information that opened the door for the Fed to say, you know what, I think the economic data is pointing towards a cut, and I think that's what the future has to bring us.
Yeah, and Peter, Monday is a holiday here in the US, so we'll be back in early and next time you and I are on air, we'll actually have those jobs figures with us.
We will.
Looking forward to it.
Happy training, great weekend everyone.
Thank you.
