Inflation and Independence: Navigating Grocery Prices This Holiday

And inflation came in mostly as expected last week.

The core PCE ran a little hotter, a reminder that prices are still sticking, especially at the grocery store.

With 4th of July just days away, there's some relief.

The cost of a Stars and Stripes barbecue is down slightly this year, just under $71 to feed 10 people.

According to the American Farm Bureau, joining me with the details is Samantha Ayoub, associate economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Good morning, Samantha.

Thank you so much for joining me.

So we are looking forward to the celebrations this weekend.

So can you take us through the average cost of a 4th of July cookout for 10 people?

Absolutely just some of the classics on the table for 4th of July since 2013.

This is, of course not all-inclusive of what you might have on your table with your friends and family, but for an average 10 person guest with multiple options on the grill and multiple side dressings, you can count for about $70.92 or $7.

And 9 cents a person.

That's basically unchanged from last year, right?

30 cents lower, but for the average American family get headed to the grocery store, you're not really going to notice that on the end of a grocery receipt.

But that comes after years of high food inflation that we've all been talking about and huge spikes in costs.

So it's hard to see a gentle cool off in prices that is promising for an American family.

And Samantha, can you break this down by region?

So who will be paying more?

For example, I'm in New York City and we know that the sticker shock for a cart of groceries is always different from, say, somebody who's living out in the Midwest.

So tell us what's going on here.

Absolutely, probably unsurprising to most.

Uh, any of our fellow Americans out West are probably going to pay the majority, but much lower than the next year out west.

Last year we saw over $80 a person.

We are down only about $72 to $73 for an average Western cookout this year.

That comes from a lot of different reasons, you know, out west, there's a lot more transportation to get between those big states, as well as some specific food regulations that are specific to the West, whether it's. cost 12 for pork in California that requires pork to be produced differently than other places in the country, um, but probably shockingly we did see our lowest price in the Northeast.

That could also largely be, you know, of course we're not typically getting shoppers in New York City, but also small towns in New England.

Um, and there you might see, you know, whether you see sales, uh, whether you see a good BOGO deal, so there's always options to bring those food prices down even if you're in a higher region or state.

And Samantha, I want to hear about how all of this relates to the issues that farmers as well as ranchers are facing right now.

So tell us what's going on.

Absolutely.

You know, farmers and ranchers face no shortage of difficulties in putting food on grocery store shelves.

They get hit like with inflation just like an American family.

Production expenses continue to rise at the same time that we're seeing record low input prices, or excuse me, crop prices on the other side.

So farmers and ranchers are really getting squeezed from both ends of their balance sheet.

And so still trying to put food on the tables we've seen record crop years. in corn, soybeans that goes into producing the proteins that you eat most most standardly.

And so there's a lot of variation, you know, there's always uncertainty in farming, whether it's the weather, whether it's markets, we tend to trade commodities more so than stock exchange, but there's always uncertainty going into farming and it's no different, and farmers and rangers across the country are still committed to filling grocery store shelves here in America and across the world.

Oh And finally, before I let you go, I do want to ask you if you have any tips or suggestions for Americans who want to cut back on spending this year and still enjoy the 4th of July holiday weekend.

Absolutely.

You know, like I mentioned earlier, there are almost always a sale going on whether you check, you know, shop around at different grocery stores, whether you are looking for, you know, sales as we get closer to the closer to the holiday.

One thing we've been seeing, we've seen record high beef prices this year simply due to having really low cattle numbers here.

US and so a lot of people are putting other proteins, whether it's chicken or pork on sale.

So maybe considering what protein you're putting on your grill this summer, looking for those deals and shopping around for the best option.

There are always ways to cut back on your grocery bill, as everyone across the country, including farmers and ranchers, get squeezed by continued inflation.

OK, Samantha, well, thank you so much for joining us this morning ahead of the 4th of July holiday and have a wonderful holiday weekend.